Week 10 saw the wide receiver position continue to struggle, with only 26 wideouts topping double-digit Fantasy points heading into Monday Night Football. In Week 11, we'll lose Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers to bye weeks. It's getting to the point where even if you want to bench that struggling pass catcher, you may not be able to find anyone off the waiver wire. Thankfully, we should have some reinforcements coming off Week 10 byes.
The most notable name we expect to return is DK Metcalf. Metcalf is averaging 15.1 PPR FPPG and will instantly slot in as a top-15 option despite a bad matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Jakobi Meyers and Cedric Tillman don't have the name value that Metcalf has, but they've both been top-10 wide receivers per game over the last month, so we'll be starting them with confidence in Week 11. It's hard to have confidence which Packers wide receiver will be the best on a weekly basis, but expect Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs to be ranked as starters while Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks slot in as boom/bust flexes. Maye, we'll finally get Nico Collins back as well.
The wide receiver position won't be fixed by the players we're getting back, but it should be better. It could be a lot better if some of these backup quarterbacks could play replacement-level football. Let's start with them.
Mac Jones was even worse than expected
Coming into this week, I wasn't really sure this would be an enormous downgrade for the Jacksonville pass catchers. That was foolish. Jones threw for just 111 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first start of 2024. Evan Engram was the only Jaguars pass catcher to score double-digit PPR points; Engram scored exactly 10 on a team-high eight targets. If Jones starts in Week 11, I will downgrade Jaguars passing efficiency 10% off their year-to-date numbers. Engram will likely be the only one ranked as a starter. If you want a glimmer of hope, it was Jones' first start of the year, and he only threw 22 passes. Week 11 should be better.
Cooper Rush wasn't any better
Rush averaged two yards per pass attempt, which is almost comical unless you started CeeDee Lamb or Jake Ferguson. We even saw Trey Lance for a short appearance, but Lance wasn't much better. I am once again downgrading Lamb and Ferguson after the duo combined for 45 yards on 15 targets in Week 10. Next week, they face a good Texans defense, and I'm not sure I am going to want to start any of them. Expect Lamb to be ranked as a number two receiver and Ferguson as a number two tight end. At this point, all you can really do is hope Rush looks more like the guy we saw in 2022 and less like the Week 10 disaster we just witnessed. If the team turns to Lance, I will add him in Superflex leagues, but I'll be even more concerned about Lamb and Ferguson.
Audric Estime replaces Javonte Williams
We've been hearing for a couple of weeks that the Broncos wanted to get Audric Estime more involved. They did a lot more than that in Week 10. Estime handled 60% of the team's rush attempts, turning a team-high 14 rush attempts into 53 yards. Unfortunately, he only scored 5.3 PPR Fantasy points because he didn't see a target and didn't get into the end zone. Making things even messier was the fact that Marvin Mims played multiple snaps in the backfield and had seven touches of his own.
The one clear takeaway is that Javonte Williams is nowhere close to RB2 territory right now. In my early Week 11 projections, I have 10 carries for Estime, six for Williams, and and 11 for the combination of Box Nix, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Marvin Mims. I do not want to start a Broncos running backs until this situation gets more clear.
Welcome back, Jauan Jennings
The big news for the 49ers was obviously the return of Christian McCaffrey. But we already ranked him as a must-start running back coming into the week, so there's not a big change here. McCaffrey was second on the team with a 20% target share and handled 59% of the team's rush attempts. Those numbers are enough to earn him a big boost in the Week 11 projections, but he'll still be a must-start running back. The big change for the 49ers comes at wide receiver.
In his first game back from injury, Jennings led the team with a 32% target share, catching seven of 11 targets for 93 yards and 16.3 PPR Fantasy points. I had him projected for a 16% target share this week, and I boosted it to 19% for next week. With four teams on a bye, he will likely rank as a must-start receiver. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle remain must-start options, but Ricky Pearsall is also someone to watch. Pearsall had his best day as a pro and also gets a boost in the Week 11 target share. View him as a boom-bust flex.
J.K. Dobbins has company
From Week 5 through Week 9, J.K. Dobbins had a 62.5% rush share and scored 100% of the Chargers rush touchdowns. In Week 10, Gus Edwards returned from Injured Reserve, and Dobbins' rush share fell to 38% while he accounted for zero of the team's two rushing touchdowns. There was some flukiness to this, as we don't expect Hassan Haskins to score very often, but there's also another problem: Edwards looked good. He was more efficient than Dobbins, who has struggled in that department for most of the nest month. I cut Dobbins' rush share to 52% for Week 11, which makes him a low-end RB2 at best.
Waiver wire roulette with Cam Akers
Aaron Jones left Week 10 early after taking a big shot to the ribs. He returned later in the game but said that was mostly on adrenaline. We'll likely have to wait until Thursday or Friday before we know whether or not Jones will play in Week 11, which means Cam Akers will once again be a waiver wire priority, but no one will know how much of a priority. Akers had a 3-to-1 edge in terms of rush attempts over Ty Chandler, and Akers was the only Vikings running back other than Jones to see a target. If Jones misses time, I'll project Akers for a 60% rush share and a six percent target share, which could get him close to 20 touches. With four teams on a bye, he may even be a top-30 running back.
