I had a pretty good idea coming into Week 7 what the headline of this piece would be, and I expected it would be written late on Sunday night when Russell Wilson played his first game with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Davante Adams made his Jets debut. What I was completely wrong about was what the outcome would be from a Fantasy perspective.
My expectation was a huge success for Adams, and I was really worried about how Wilson would look. Obviously, what we got was the complete opposite. Here's how I'm adjusting for Week 8.
Sunday Night Football debuts
For the first seven weeks of the season, the Steelers had a 52.9% run rate, the second-highest mark in the league. In Wilson's debut, they had a 55.5% run rate, not exactly what I expected. It's also heavily influenced by the fact that the Steelers ran the ball 12 straight times to finish the game. What's more important from a run perspective is that Wilson only accounted for three of 36 Pittsburgh rush attempts. The pie is much bigger for NaJee Harris and Jaylen Warren than it was with Fields, who had a 27.6% rush share.
While the pass volume didn't change much, the efficiency obviously did. Wilson averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and produced a 6.9% TD rate. For the 2024 season, Fields is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with a 3.1% TD rate. Fields also had a 9.1% sack rate, while Wilson was sacked just once in 30 dropbacks in his debut. All of this helps to account for how Wilson threw for 80 more yards than Fields' average.
The big winner looks like George Pickens, but this is one place where my projections mostly had it right entering this week. He is an alpha wide receiver with a near 30% target share, so even a small boost in volume can be a big deal to him. There was meat left on the bone in this game as well; I would expect Pickens to be a top-15 wide receiver for as long as Wilson starts. Buy high after this big game.
As for Wilson, he sits at QB1 in FPPG, entering Monday night. While I don't expect him to keep that up, the Giants have been a good matchup for Fantasy QBs, so I would expect Russ to be one of the top streaming options for Week 8. And it's quite possible he will be a top-12 QB for the rest of the season in terms of Fantasy points per game.
On the other side of the ball, I wouldn't make too much out of Adams' bad night. He, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall all saw nine targets in a game that Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. The fact that Adams turned those nine targets into three catches for 30 yards is more likely an aberration than a trend to follow. I would buy low and expect Adams to be a top-20 wide receiver for the rest of the season. I'm starting him again in Week 9 against the Patriots.
Amari Cooper is a must-start wide receiver
In his first game with the Buffalo Bills, Cooper caught four of five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. This was only the second time all season Cooper scored more than 10 PPR Fantasy points, and he did it on just 17 offensive snaps. Expect Cooper's role to increase in the coming weeks, but it's an outstanding sign that he was able to have this kind of impact this soon. View Cooper as a top-20 wide receiver in Week 8, and don't be surprised if he turns into a top-12 wide receiver the rest of the season.
Cedric Tillman looks like an add in Cooper's absence
Tillman was a third-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft who had five total targets this season coming into Week 7. Against the Bengals, he caught eight of 12 targets for 81 yards and scored a career-high 16.1 PPR Fantasy points. We're expecting Jameis Winston to start Week 8. Winston targeted Tillman twice on his 11 attempts, and Tillman hauled in one of them for 25 yards. Tillman is a must-add in Dynasty leagues and deeper redraft leagues. In standard 12-team leagues, he's certainly worth a look if you're thin at wide receiver. I'm setting his Week 8 target share projection at 15%.
Hunter Henry is a starting Fantasy tight end
In two Drake Maye starts Henry leads the Patriots with a 20.9% target share. That shouldn't be that surprising since Henry led the Patriots with an 18.8% target share this first five weeks of the season with Jacoby Brissett. The thing that has changed is that Maye has thrown for 519 yards and five touchdowns in his two starts, while Brissett averaged 139 passing yards per game. A fifth of this passing offense is now actually desirable, as evidenced by Henry's 30.3 PPR Fantasy points over the last two weeks. You can view Henry as a top-12 option against the Jets in Week 8, but you may want to wait a few more weeks to move Maye into the starting lineup.
Benching the Colts passing game
Anthony Richardson completed just 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards against the Dolphins. No Colt had more than five targets in the game, and Michael Pittman was the only Colt with more than 30 receiving yards. This was the third time this season that Richardson completed 10 passes or fewer. It's just not a serious pass offense, and I don't want to start any of them against the Houston Texans. This includes Richardson, who only has one game this season with more than one touchdown. There's no one on a bye in Week 8, so you should have plenty of options. Unless Jonathan Taylor is back, I don't want to start anyone on this team.
Alexander Mattison is a feature back
I projected Mattison and Zamir White for an even split on the ground in Week 7, but in White's first game back, Mattison was the clear lead back. He played 69% of the snaps and all the snaps inside the 10-yard line. He handled 77% of the team's rush attempts and led all running backs with an 8.6% target share. Maybe more importantly, he was effective, turning all that opportunity into 124 yards and 15.4 PPR Fantasy points. Mattison is the back to own in this backfield, but unfortunately, he faces the Chiefs in Week 8, so he's no more than a flex.
We're projecting Cooper Kupp's return
After the team's Week 7 win over the Raiders, Sean McVay said he's expecting Cooper Kupp back in Week 8. Kupp saw a 36% target share in the first two weeks of the season. He was the number four wide receiver in Fantasy points in those two weeks. If he's active, he should be in your Fantasy lineup. He'll also have a big impact on the rest of the Rams pass catchers because of all the volume he commands. I'm projecting a 27% target share for Kupp in Week 8, which puts a big dent in the recent volume for Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Colby Parkinson.
An opportunity in San Francisco
While we wait to see whether Brandon Aiyuk's 2024 is over, one thing is for sure: we won't be projecting him for Week 8. That means George Kittle should continue being the best tight end in Fantasy Football, and Deebo Samuel should be a top-12 wide receiver, assuming he's feeling better. It also means there will be an opportunity for at least one more guy to replace a chunk of Aiyuk's team-high 22.4% target share. The two guys we're looking for on the waiver wire are Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Jennings is hurt, and Pearsall is a rookie, so this may be more of a long-term play, but both should be added where available.