We've come to the end of the road. Most Fantasy leagues finished in Week 16, but for those of you who are still playing, I have some notes to help you get ready Week 17.
The format will be different this week — quite a bit shorter as I hone in on the biggest changes and things you need to know. For all of you who have read along all season, I want to say thanks for making this column a success. It's been a fun ride. Also, keep an eye out in January for full-season Stealing Signals recaps on every team.
As always, data are typically courtesy of Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, the RotoGrinders Premium Usage App, airyards.com or PFF. And feel free to hit me up on Twitter @YardsPerGretch with any questions about anything I covered or to ask my thoughts on something I glossed over. That is some of my favorite feedback, because sometimes it's something I've missed.
Here are some important statistical acronyms to know for Stealing Signals:
Green Zone - Inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
HVT - High-Value Touches: for running backs, all receptions and all touches inside the 10 yard line.
TRAP - Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: for running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not high-value touches.
WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating: a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player's WOPR is a share of his team's overall opportunity, it's important to consider team volume as additional context.
RACR - Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: also created by Hermsmeyer, RACR is calculated as total receiving yards divided by total air yards. Similar to yards per reception or yards per target, but per air yard instead.
Snap Notes from around the league
Here are the most notable playing time items from Week 16.
- Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary: 96% (+14 vs. previous season high)
- Carolina Panthers: Chris Hogan: 74% (season high), Greg Olsen: 57% (-28 vs. season average), Ian Thomas: 46% (+21 vs. season average), D.J. Moore: 9% (concussion)
- Cincinnati Bengals: John Ross: 79% (+30 vs. previous high since return from IR), Joe Mixon: 43% (lowest since Week 1, stomach bug)
- Detroit Lions: Kerryon Johnson: 32% (return from IR)
- Houston Texans: Kenny Stills: 85% (+16 vs. season average), Will Fuller: 29% (groin injury)
- Indianapolis Colts: T.Y. Hilton: 59% (+7 vs. Week 15 return from injury), Marlon Mack: 48% (-6 vs. season average), Jordan Wilkins: 34% (+16 vs. season average)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: D.J. Chark: 87% (return from injury)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Damien Williams: 53% (return from injury), Spencer Ware: 36%, Darwin Thompson: 9%
- Los Angeles Rams: Tyler Higbee: 89% (+4 vs. Week 15), Gerald Everett: 6% (return from injury)
- New England Patriots: Mohamed Sanu: 96% (+10 vs. Week 15), N'Keal Harry: 51% (-7 vs. Week 15)
- New York Giants: Darius Slayton: 29% (knee injury), Cody Latimer: 59% (highest since Week 2)
- Oakland Raiders: DeAndre Washington: 63% (equal to Week 14), Jalen Richard: 38% (-1 vs. Week 14), Hunter Renfrow: 46% (return from injury)
- Philadelphia Eagles: Miles Sanders: 82% (highest since Week 13), Boston Scott: 28% (-17 vs. Week 15)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Vance McDonald: 97% (return from injury), JuJu Smith-Schuster: 79% (return from injury), James Conner: 13% (thigh injury), Jaylen Samuels: 63% (highest since Week 9)
- Seattle Seahawks: Travis Homer: 49% (+40 vs. Week 15 season high), Chris Carson: 32% (hip injury), C.J. Prosise: 19% (broken forearm)
- San Francisco 49ers: Raheem Mostert: 54% (+1 vs. Week 15), Tevin Coleman: 42% (+12 vs. Week 15), Matt Breida: 0% (active, DNP)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Breshad Perriman: 96% (+7 vs. Week 15), Justin Watson: 96% (+40 vs. Week 15), Ishmael Hyman: 63% (+46 vs. Week 15), Ronald Jones: 51% (highest since Week 9), Peyton Barber: 11% (season low)
- Tennessee Titans: Dion Lewis: 69% (+16 vs. previous season high)
Key Stats
- Arizona Cardinals: Kenyan Drake — 46 carries, 403 rush yards, 6 rush TD over past two weeks
- Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones — 222 air yards (season high)
- Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews — 9-6-93-2 receiving line (no other Raven over four targets)
- Carolina Panthers: Will Grier — 402 air yards (Kyle Allen had more just once this season)
- Cincinnati Bengals: John Ross — 283 air yards (led Week 16); Andy Dalton — 586 total air yards (third most by any QB in any game this season)
- Dallas Cowboys: Michael Gallup — 194 air yards (season high)
- Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins — 3 green zone rushes each
- Los Angeles Chargers: Melvin Gordon — 8 HVT (converted both green zone carries for two 1-yard touchdown runs)
- Los Angeles Rams: Tyler Higbee/Robert Woods — 11 targets each to lead team
- Miami Dolphins: Mike Gesicki — 149 air yards (most among TE in Week 16)
- New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara — 8 HVT, two green zone rushes (eight in past six games)
- Oakland Raiders: Hunter Renfrow — team-high 9 targets, just a 4.0 aDOT
- Philadelphia Eagles: Miles Sanders — 8 HVT (season-high 9 in Week 15); Dallas Goedert — 12 targets
- Seattle Seahawks: Travis Homer — 11 touches, 42 yards
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston — 623 total air yards (most by any QB in a single game this year); Breshad Perriman — 201 air yards, Justin Watson — 161 air yards (both top 10 in Week 16); O.J. Howard — 130 air yards (second most among TE in Week 16)
Signal and Noise
Arizona Cardinals
Noise: 27/40 pass/run ratio
Atlanta Falcons
Signal: Devonta Freeman — 9 high-value touches, but Qadree Ollison got the only green zone rush
Buffalo Bills
Signal: Cole Beasley — 25%+ target share in four of past five games (46% in Week 16)
Carolina Panthers
Signal: Will Grier — despite throwing to McCaffrey 15 times, did show a willingness to take shots down the field (9.1 average throw depth)
Cincinnati Bengals
Signal: John Ross — role expanded, tons of air yards (Dalton overthrew a potential long touchdown)
Noise: Andy Dalton — 56 pass attempts, 396 yards, 4 TD (big second-half comeback)
Dallas Cowboys
Noise: Amari Cooper — 2.0 yards per target (24 yards on 12 targets)
Signal: DaeSean Hamilton — 15 targets in past two games
Indianapolis Colts
Signal: Jordan Wilkins — still very involved, split green zone rushes with Mack
Noise: 27/32 pass/run ratio (big win)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Signal: D.J. Chark — full snap share, team-high 7 targets in return
Kansas City Chiefs
Signal: Damien Williams — lead back, Ware No. 2, Thompson an afterthought (McCoy inactive)
Los Angeles Rams
Signal: Tyler Higbee — gave up almost no playing time in Everett's return
Miami Dolphins
Noise: Raw target volume (Miami likes to throw, but 52 pass attempts is a ton)
New England Patriots
Signal: Mohamed Sanu — full-time role
New York Giants
Signal: Saquon Barkley — apparently still good
Noise: Giants — 552 total yards
Oakland Raiders
Signal: DeAndre Washington — lead back with Jacobs out; Darren Waller — targets continue to be impacted by Renfrow's presence
Noise: Hunter Renfrow — 77 yards after the catch
Philadelphia Eagles
Signal: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert — both continue to play big roles
Pittsburgh Steelers
Signal: JuJu Smith-Schuster — played pretty full snap share, took back seat to Johnson, Washington
Seattle Seahawks
Signal: Available RB opportunity (could be Travis Homer, could be Marshawn Lynch)
Noise: Tyler Lockett — eight targets, one catch
San Francisco 49ers
Signal: Raheem Mostert — still lead back, only a two-back committee in Week 16 with Coleman
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signal: Justin Watson — full time role
Noise: Ronald Jones — benefited from long early run, Peyton Barber fumble to finally get a decent workload, but one that is tough to bank on (got first green zone rush since Week 12, only fifth since Week 4)
Tennessee Titans
Noise: A.J. Brown — 2 targets (Marshon Lattimore shadowed and Lattimore has been very good in the second half of the season; Brown still produced)