Last year at this time, we were so excited to see the 2025 rookie running back class in action. What we did not expect was that Dylan Sampson and Jacory Croskey-Merritt would be the only backs to finish top 20 in Week 1. By the end of the year, Cam Skattebo, Omarian Hampton, and Ashton Jeanty all ranked top 20 on a per-game basis, but Jeanty was the only one of the three to play double-digit games. In other words, we didn't quite get what we were looking for. That hasn't exactly lowered our expectations. In my early Week 1 projections, all three of those backs are top 20, while Quinshon Judkins, Bhayshul Tuten, Crosket-Merritt, and RJ Harvey are all top 32. We are still counting on that 2025 class and if they disappoint again, the running back position is going to be much thinner than we think.
Two of the biggest question marks heading into Week 1 also come from the 2025 class: TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Monangai. As I wrote about in the Week 1 Projections Risers and Fallers, we started the week anticipating that both would be out this week. That would be a big boost to both D'Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson. Swift has a good matchup and as of Tuesday morning, ranks as a top 12 back in our consensus rankings. Stevenson is in my top 12, but I am alone in that, so we should probably discuss it.
The matchup is awful, let's get that out of the way. Seattle gave up the fourth fewest points (19.2 PPR FPPG) to running backs last season. But it is how they gave up those points that gave me hope. The 97 catches they allowed to running backs were the most in the NFL. Remember the Super Bowl when they held Stevenson to 23 yards rushing? He still scored 18.5 PPR Fantasy points because of his receiving work. In that game, he and Henderson combined for eight catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. If Henderson is out, Stevenson may just lead running backs in catches in Week 1. That matters a lot in full PPR, and is why he is my RB12 even after I lowered his efficiency projection because of the matchup. It's also worth noting that the Patriots have an implied total of 20.75 points this week despite scoring just 13 in the Super Bowl. Vegas is expecting a more competitive and higher-scoring game than the last matchup.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 1 RB Preview:
47% -- Kenneth Walker played only 47% of the offensive snaps for Seattle last year. All indications out of Kansas City are that Walker will be a workhorse this year, which is why he projects as a top 12 back in Week 1.
18 -- D'Andre Swift had seven games with at least 18 touches last year. He averaged 16.2 PPR Fantasy points per game in those contests. I project him for 21 touches if Monangai is out.
28 -- The Jets gave up a league-high 28 touchdowns to running backs last season. If ever there was a matchup to get Tony Pollard off to a good start, this is it.
53.7% -- Jacory Croskey-Merritt led all qualified running backs with a 53.7% rush success rate. If he gets just a small boost in the passing game, he could be a quality RB2.
8.7 -- Breece Hall has averaged a very impressive 8.7 yards per catch for his career. Unfortunately, his target rate took a hit last year. Hopefully, Frank Reich recognizes his talent and involves him more in that area.
0 -- Bucky Irving had zero carries inside the five-yard line last year. Hopefully, we'll get a glimpse of who has that role in Tampa in Week 1.
7.3 -- Mike Washington averaged 7.3 yards per carry in the preseason. Was that enough to turn the Raiders backfield into more of a committee? Ashton Jeanty's managers hope not.
18.4% -- De'Von Achane was third amongst running backs with an 18.3% target share. Malik Willis has not thrown to running backs much in his short stints as a starting quarterback. We'll be watching closely to see if that changes in Week 1.
13.3% -- Over the past three seasons, the Chargers 13.3% running back target share ranks 31st. In the same span, Mike McDaniel's 22.6% RB target share was the fourth highest.
You shouldn't need to add a running back to start in Week 1, but if you do, Spears has the highest Week 1 projection. This should be one of the Titans' most competitive games, which could lead to more running back touches. And if preseason usage is any indicator, it appears to be close to an even split between Spears and Tony Pollard. In five games with double-digit touches last year, Spears averaged 12.8 PPR FPPG.
As of right now, we are projecting Jeremiyah Love to play and lead the backfield in touches. But the rookie is coming off a high ankle sprain, so neither of those assumptions is guaranteed. It is possible that Allgeier starts and maybe even likely that Allgeier gets the red zone work in Week 1. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are 10-point underdogs and have one of the lowest implied totals on the slate.
There are a handful of handcuffs I want to add on the waiver wire before the season starts but Bigsby is my favorite who is below a 60% roster rate. He was awesome in Philadelphia last year, earning 5.9 yards per carry and producing an excellent 56.9% success rate. There has even been some talk of using him to spell Saquon Barkley more regularly. I don't think Bigsby will matter for Fantasy as long as Barkley is healthy, but I do think Bigsby would be a top 20 running back if Barkley misses time.
For the most part, I view Robinson like a less exciting Tank Bigsby. In other words, he's just a handcuff but he might be must-start if the starter gets hurt. I have to say, for the most part, because there have been whispers out of Atlanta that Brian Robinson could be the goalline back in Atlanta. If that happens, he may not be a bad bye-week replacement in non-PPR leagues.
Sampson could have some PPR appeal as the pass-catching back alongside Quinshon Judkins. I think his biggest value is as the handcuff if Judkins, who is coming off a pretty bad injury, misses time. Some people doubt how many carries Sampson would get in that situation, but he ran for 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns in his final season at Tennessee. He is a very good rusher, who might lose goalline work but should still see 15-plus touches per game if Judkins goes down.
The Lions' backup running backs have combined for nine career rush attempts. Neither of them are rookies. Gibbs should get all the work he can handle after multiple seasons of sharing with David Montgomery. In Week 1, he's playing as a touchdown favorite at home in a game with an over-under of 50. There are plenty of places to save money in Week 1 DFS, RB1 should not be one of them this week. Don't be surprised if Gibbs tops 30 points in Week 1.
Nobody wanted to draft Pollard all summer long. That's the reason he was often the last starting running back available in Round 7 or 8 of Fantasy drafts. Nothing has changed those feelings, so I doubt anyone wants to roster him in Week 1. Just remember, when the offense was functional at the end of last year, Pollard was producing like a low-end RB1. This week, he is a home favorite against a defense that gave up the second-most PPR Fantasy points to running backs last year. And no one cares at all.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting running backs will be updated throughout the week, so check back regularly.
