This article may just turn into a Baker Mayfield apology section. Last week, I wrote here that Mayfield's poor Week 12 was just bad luck. I told you all to start Mayfield with confidence. He was even worse in Week 13.
In the two weeks since Tampa Bay's bye, and Mike Evans' return, Mayfield has averaged just 15.4 Fantasy points per game. He has one passing touchdown and two interceptions in those two games. And I am starting him again.
Part of my confidence in Mayfield is certainly the fact that Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Anthony Richardson are all on bye. It also doesn't hurt that he's facing a Raiders defense that has allowed four of the last five QBs they've faced to top 20 Fantasy points. Mostly, I just believe in the large sample size that says Mayfield is a must-start QB who has averaged 24 Fantasy points per game. Yes, seven of those games were with Chris Godwin, but we've seen plenty of good from Mayfield without Godwin as well.
Maybe next week, when the Fantasy playoffs start, I'll consider sitting Mayfield against the Chargers. But with a great matchup and limited options, I'm sticking with him for at least one more week.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 14 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 25.8 -- Since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator, Caleb Williams is averaging 25.8 FPPG.
- 1,680 -- Jameis Winston leads the NFL with 1,680 passing yards since he became the starter in Week 8.
- 257 -- C.J. Stroud hasn't thrown for more than 257 yards in a game since October 6th. He's not a must-roster player on his bye week.
- 22 -- Justin Herbert is QB22 over the last month. He is QB19 for the season.
- 0 -- Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals scored zero touchdowns in their game against the Seahawks two weeks ago. They face them again in Week 14.
Matchups that matter
 
TB
Tampa Bay
• #6
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
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Will Levis
QB
TEN
Tennessee
• #8
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
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NYG
N.Y. Giants
• #19
Age: 32 • Experience: 12 yrs.
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Brock Purdy
QB
SF
San Francisco
• #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
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LAR
L.A. Rams
• #9
Age: 38 • Experience: 18 yrs.
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Waiver Wire Targets
NYG
N.Y. Giants
• #19
Age: 32 • Experience: 12 yrs.
If it wasn't for the awful matchup, Winston may be ranked as a top-five QB in Week 14. Just remember, the last time he faced this defense, he only threw for 219 yards and didn't throw a touchdown pass. Still, there are six teams on a bye, and he just threw for 497 yards and four touchdowns against the Broncos, the team that used to be the number one defense versus quarterbacks. The weather should be good in Pittsburgh this week, and I'm trusting the guy who is averaging 24 FPPG as a starter.
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Will Levis
QB
TEN
Tennessee
• #8
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
If you're too scared of Winston's matchup, Will Levis faces the defense that allows the most Fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Levis has thrown multiple passing touchdowns and topped 20 Fantasy points in three of his last four starts since returning from injury.
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DFS Plays
 
Sam Darnold
QB
SEA
Seattle
• #14
Age: 29 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Darnold has six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games against the Cardinals, Bears, and Titans. This week, he's at home against a Falcons defense that allows more Fantasy points to opposing defenses than each of Darnold's past three matchups. This is my favorite game on the slate to stack.
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CHI
Chicago
• #18
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
A rookie quarterback on the road against the 49ers is almost always going to be low-rostered. Throw in an implied point total of 20, and there's really no reason the spreadsheet, and there's really no reason to trust Williams unless you favor the hot hand. Williams' passing has been much improved since the coordinator change, and he's run for 142 yards in those three games as well.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 14 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
