Each week, I go Beyond the Boxscore at SportsLine to provide Fantasy lineup advice on key players that may differ from traditional Fantasy analysis as we dig into the advanced data to unearth players like Puka Nacua -- who was advised as a player to start in Week 1 -- Nico Collins, who was featured in Week 2's Lineup Advice, or Tank Dell, Week 3's feature. Last week, BTB called for a breakout game for Joe Burrow and the Bengals quarterback delivered! It's been a strong start to the year for BTB and we want to keep that momentum going.
The SportsLine Beyond the Boxscore Lineup Advice covers a wide range of players, including which popular waiver additions are worth starting immediately and finding upside plays at every position with our tiered look at start-worthy players. Here on CBS Sports, we'll share one key Beyond the Boxscore recommendation every week as well. And this week, we're going with a big bounceback game for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
The Patriots use man/gap scheme rushing at one of the highest rates in the NFL. So far, 60% of Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts have been man/gap scheme, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and three of his five opponents rank top-10 in defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap runs.
The two opponents who don't grade out well against that specific rush scheme were the Saints and Dolphins. New Orleans hasn't allowed a rusher to top 63 yards on the ground all season. They might have struggled on a small sample size of man/gap schemed runs this season, but New Orleans is far from an advantageous matchup on the ground. And Stevenson actually found some success against the Dolphins -- that was his one top-20 Fantasy RB finish this season.
In Week 6, Stevenson draws a much more inviting matchup. Only two teams have allowed more rushing yards from man/gap concept runs than the Raiders. Las Vegas has surrendered 4.3 yards per rush (4.6 on man/gap rushes), even while facing one of the easiest opposing RB schedules in the league. The Raiders have faced the Broncos, Bills, Steelers, Austin Ekeler-less Chargers, and Aaron Jones-less Packers. Of that group, the only team that uses man/gap schemed rushes as often as the Patriots is the Bills. James Cook totaled 159 yards against the Raiders while Latavius Murray and Damien Harris chipped in 64 more yards and two touchdowns.
The Patriots offense has been so unbelievably bad that "Bill Belichick on the hot seat" narratives are popping up. Of course Stevenson's production has fallen off. It's possible that the Pats are just such a mess that we won't be able to trust their players even in the best matchups. I'm not ready to make that judgment after they predictably struggled against an unbelievably difficult opening schedule. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get a bounce-back from Stevenson and the Pats in this spot.
Stevenson currently sits at the RB20 spot in my Week 6 rankings, ahead of Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, and Jonathan Taylor.
For more plays like this one, make sure you go Beyond the Boxscore at SportsLine.
