It's not easy dealing with any player in their first game back from injury, but the way we do it often depends on the upside they possess and our concern about reinjury. Tyreek Hill is a great example.
Hill is on schedule returning from a broken clavicle after he started practicing last week. There's no chance the Chiefs are bringing him back if re-injury is an actual concern. And you know the upside: He was the No. 1 wide receiver in non-PPR last year.
There was some talk circulating that he could be involved in limited packages this week, so I cut his target rate from 25% where I'd normally put it to 20% this week. That knocked him all the way down to No. 7 in non-PPR and No. 13 in PPR. If Tyreek Hill is active on Sunday, you're starting him.
Week 6 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
This could give Golden Tate and Darius Slayton more opportunity but it's a terrible matchup.
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Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle remain flex plays even with Hill back.
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In deeper leagues Jakobi Meyers could be interesting but mostly I expect a consolidation of targets around Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman and James White.
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Numbers to Know
- 4 - Wide receivers are averaging more than 10 targets per game; Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd.
- 16 - Average targeted air yards for Mike Evans this season. Among receivers with at least 30 targets only Terry McLaurin has a higher mark.
- 395 - Completed air yards for Amari Cooper, the most in the NFL. Michael Gallup is in the top 30 even with his missed time. This offense is going vertical.
- 113 - Yards per game for Gallup. It's hard to believe Cooper and Gallup can both be this good, but the sample size is growing and they get the Jets this week.
- 13.1 - Yards per target for D.J. Chark, the most among receivers with at least 30 targets. Chark's breakout looks legit.
- 6.1 - Yards per target for Curtis Samuel this year, which is worse than his career mark. He's getting targets from Kyle Allen, but he's not capitalizing.
- 70.8% - On target catch rate for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That ranks 58th out of 60 players with at least 30 targets.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Tate was a little bit disappointing in his first week as a starter, but this week's matchup against the Ravens might be even better than what he had last week. He has 22 targets over his past three games and is averaging around 7 yards per target, so you should consider his floor around nine PPR Fantasy points. That's good enough to be a borderline No. 3 until A.J. Green returns.
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Williams has 19 targets in Josh Rosen's two starts and now gets a matchup against a Washington defense surrendering the third-most Fantasy points to wide receivers. If the Dolphins figured a few things out over the bye we could see Williams morph into a rest-of-season contributor in Week 6.
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I don't want to start any Jets pass catchers in Darnold's first start back but there is certainly longterm appeal here. In theory an offense with Anderson, Le'Veon Bell and Chris Herndon should be able to move the ball and put up points. Unfortunately, at this point that's still just a theory.
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The quarterback situation is probably too bad to learn much about Johnson this week but he has out-targeted Smith-Schuster in the Steelers' last two games.
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DFS Plays
No team has given up more Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Falcons, so if he can't get it going this week, I may have to stop making this argument. Fitzgerald is the No. 1 option in this offense, but it just hasn't quite clicked the past two weeks. He's still dominating targets, but the Cardinals just haven't been able to put the ball in the end zone. I expect that to change this week, and at this price there's enormous upside.
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Boyd has one game this season with fewer than 10 targets. His 37 catches are the fourth most amongst NFL receivers. A lack of touchdowns are the only thing keeping him from being ranked (and priced) like an elite NFL wide receiver. He's scored 22 Fantasy points in a game twice this season without needing a touchdown to help. Boyd has a huge ceiling each week and his volume should give him a better floor than he's shown.
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We're guessing this early in the week, but I don't expect an underpriced Sutton to be that popular in a low-scoring game against a good Titans defense. Sutton had six more targets than Emmanuel Sanders in Week 5 and has 10 more since Week 3. He looks like the No. 1 receiver in this offense with enormous weekly upside.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Amari Cooper | 15.15 | 21.65 |
2 | 2 | Michael Thomas | 13.73 | 21.42 |
5 | 3 | Tyler Boyd | 13.36 | 21.21 |
4 | 4 | Cooper Kupp | 13.64 | 21.03 |
3 | 5 | Chris Godwin | 13.67 | 19.88 |
12 | 9 | Keenan Allen | 11.85 | 17.83 |
6 | 6 | D.J. Chark | 12.82 | 18.17 |
8 | 7 | Julio Jones | 12.31 | 17.98 |
11 | 8 | Julian Edelman | 12.12 | 17.95 |
15 | 10 | DeAndre Hopkins | 11.44 | 17.64 |
13 | 11 | Larry Fitzgerald | 11.83 | 17.56 |
10 | 12 | Michael Gallup | 12.18 | 17.51 |
7 | 13 | Tyreek Hill | 12.63 | 17.51 |
14 | 14 | Tyler Lockett | 11.63 | 17.37 |
9 | 15 | Courtland Sutton | 12.22 | 17.36 |
21 | 16 | Robert Woods | 10.54 | 16.65 |
18 | 17 | Odell Beckham | 10.99 | 15.55 |
22 | 18 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.42 | 15.50 |
20 | 19 | Will Fuller | 10.71 | 15.46 |
16 | 20 | Josh Gordon | 11.12 | 15.24 |
17 | 21 | Adam Thielen | 11.01 | 15.23 |
26 | 22 | Kenny Golladay | 10.09 | 14.93 |
19 | 23 | Terry McLaurin | 10.86 | 14.79 |
27 | 24 | Calvin Ridley | 9.70 | 14.57 |
23 | 25 | Mike Evans | 10.25 | 14.39 |
24 | 26 | Marquise Brown | 10.19 | 14.36 |
25 | 27 | Marvin Jones | 10.16 | 14.28 |
33 | 28 | Alshon Jeffery | 8.65 | 14.26 |
28 | 29 | Jarvis Landry | 9.67 | 14.21 |
31 | 30 | Emmanuel Sanders | 9.28 | 13.96 |
29 | 31 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.42 | 13.53 |
39 | 32 | Golden Tate | 7.75 | 13.53 |
40 | 33 | Mohamed Sanu | 7.73 | 13.42 |
32 | 38 | Mike Williams | 9.12 | 12.84 |
30 | 34 | Stefon Diggs | 9.42 | 13.10 |
37 | 35 | Christian Kirk | 8.35 | 13.02 |
35 | 36 | Auden Tate | 8.60 | 12.88 |
34 | 37 | D.J. Moore | 8.62 | 12.87 |
36 | 39 | Curtis Samuel | 8.35 | 12.42 |
42 | 40 | Dede Westbrook | 7.54 | 12.27 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 6 Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
