Every week in this space I will attempt to keep a sort of running tally of what happened in the prior week and how that will impact my rankings in the week to come. The guts behind those rankings are my weekly Fantasy Football projections, which you can find over on SportsLine.
As a rule, early in the year I am going to adjust more based on volume than efficiency, because the former is more predictive than the latter. And I'm not making very many major adjustments after one week at all. But at the same time, you don't want to stick your head in the sand.
Week 1 is unique in that there were two games before Sunday. On Thursday night, the Chiefs played the Ravens, and on Friday morning I wrote about how much I am changing my perspective on Isaiah Likely, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce. The big story of Friday night's game between the Packers and the Eagles was Jordan Love's knee injury. Let's start there.
No Love for Packers
First and foremost, if you're looking for a replacement for Love, I would start with Baker Mayfield, who will be playing against the Lions in Detroit. The sad truth is, you may need to find a replacement for your Packers' pass catchers as well.
As of now, we'll project Malik Willis as the starting quarterback. Willis has averaged 5.2 yards per pass attempt in his career. He started three games in Tennessee and never topped 100 yards passing in any of them. I decreased the Packers' pass catchers yards per catch by 10% and made similar adjustment to their catch rate. Their touchdown projection will likely be crushed on Monday morning when the line adjustment is factored in. I would not expect any of the Packers wide receivers to rank in the top 40 this week, and the tight ends aren't startable either.
Adjusting Arizona's target share
Trey McBride had a disappointing season opener, but he also led the team with nine targets so we're not going to panic. In fact, if I was going to adjust his target share I would adjust it up, because he saw a 29% share in this game. I'm not moving him, but I do need to adjust the wide receivers after Greg Dortch saw eight targets to rookie Marvin Harrison's four. For Week 2, I've moved Harrison to a 22% target share and bumped Dortch up to 19%. Harrison will still rank as a starting wide receiver, but not a top-15 option. Dortch is a fine flex but he's more a thorn in Harrison's side than someone we want to start in Fantasy.
One other adjustment comes to James Conner. He handled 64% of the Cardinals' rush attempts and saw a 13% target share. That's must-start volume and his Week 2 ranking will reflect it.
No committee in Pittsburgh
Remember when Arthur Smith was terrible for weapons in Atlanta? In his first game calling plays for the Steelers, Najee Harris handled 74% of the team's rush attempts and George Pickens saw a 30% target share. While Jaylen Warren's hamstring may have had a little something to do with it, for now Harris looks a little more attractive as an RB2 while Warren looks a lot less appealing. Cordarrelle Patterson actually had two more carries in this game than Warren did.
One place where the committee effect seemed to be in full effect was tight end. Seven of Justin Fields' targets went to tight ends: four to Pat Freiermuth, two to Mycole Pruitt, and one to Darnell Washington. Since there were only 22 passes attempted in this game, I'm willing to give Freiermuth one more week on the roster.
Drake London is in prove-it territory
The only real reason to draft London in the first three rounds of Fantasy drafts was his draft capital and the hope that Kirk Cousins would be himself after an Achilles injury. London saw three targets and turned them into 15 yards. I have dropped him from 23% target share projection to 20% in Week 2, which is likely to mean he is ranked outside of my top 30 wide receivers next week. I had him at 26 in Week 1.
Tony Pollard is a lead back ...
We heard all offseason that the Titans would take a committee approach with their running backs. In Week 1, we saw the truth. Pollard outcarried Spears 16-4 and both backs had four targets. This was supposed to be a bad matchup for Pollard, which makes his 5.1 yards per carry all the more impressive. The downside for Pollard was that Will Levis looked pretty terrible, so I don't want to get too far over my skis here, but I am viewing Pollard as a clear lead back for the Titans, and an RB2 for Fantasy managers. Hold Spears, but view as more of a handcuff than a contributor. The one positive for Spears was that he played 13-of-14 third down snaps.
The other thing we saw in this game is that we absolutely cannot trust DeAndre Hopkins until he shows us something different.
... and so is Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson saw 28 touches, produced 126 yards, and scored a touchdown. It couldn't have gone much better, and that includes the fact that the biggest underdog of the weekend pulled a shocking upset against the Cincinnati Bengals. While we don't expect the Patriots to be playing from ahead very often, the most encouraging sign was that Stevenson saw three targets in this game and Antonio Gibson didn't see any. Stevenson played 80% of the snaps, including 11-of-15 snaps on third down and all three snaps inside the 10. Like Pollard, we can view Stevenson as a top-20 back until further notice. If you're rostering Gibson, he's probably droppable.
Travis Etienne has a Tank Bigsby problem
I mostly try to ignore efficiency stats in the Week 1; they're not near as sticky as volume numbers. Both paint an ugly picture for Etienne. Bigsby and Etienne both had 12 carries, but Bigsby produced 29 more yards and Etienne had a costly fumble in the red zone. Last year Etienne handled 75% of the team's rush attempts, so the 50% in Week 1 was a big outlier. Bigsby was a guy who earned a lot of positive reports in the preseason and now we'll need to make sure he's rostered in all leagues. For Week 2, I'm still starting Etienne, but not with as much confidence. The only positive from Etienne when it comes to usage is that he received all three running back targets for the Jaguars.
Panthers show no improvement
It's hard to imagine how things could have gone worse for Carolina. They lost 47-10 to a mediocre Saints team and not one player on their team scored double-digit Fantasy points. I owe many of you an apology, because I suggested to way too many of you that you should start Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard only had six carries and did not receive a target. Xavier Legette led the team in targets and receptions, while Adam Thielen led with 49 receiving yards. The bottom line is that you cannot start any Panthers until this offense shows us signs of life. I did increase Legette's target share and Sanders' rush share, but neither is close to someone I would trust.
Alexander Mattison is the 1B ... at least
Mattison scored the lone Raiders touchdown in this game and was tied with Davante Adams for second on the team in targets with six. The expectation was that Dylan Laube would fill this role, and he may eventually. But for now, Mattison could be a PPR flex, and he might be even more. Zamir White lost a fumble in this game and only picked up 44 yards on his 13 carries and two yards on his two receptions. White is exactly the type of starter that gets supplanted every year in the NFL, Mattison would know, it happened to him last year. I'm viewing White as a flex at best next week and adding Mattison where I can find the room. Mattison has an 18% rush share projection and 10% target share projected for Week 2.
Tyler Lockett isn't going anywhere
Tyler Lockett earned a 28% target share in Week 1. He had more targets (seven), receptions (six), and receiving yards (77) than DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined. It won't often be this way. I still expect Metcalf will finish as Seattle's Fantasy WR1. But there's not really a path to a WR1 Fantasy season if Lockett stays healthy and stays productive. Smith-Njigba is still a must-roster, but in redraft that has an expiration date if the production doesn't improve. Lockett is a good boom-bust flex, and even that may be disrespectful. My Week 2 projection has Metcalf at 22%, Lockett at 21%, and Smith-Njigba at 15%.
Devaughn Vele is a deep add
Vele was targeted on eight of Bo Nix's 42 pass attempts and caught all eight of them. That was tied for the second-most targets on the team with Josh Reynolds, behind Courtland Sutton. This Broncos pass game is still a bit ambiguous, but Vele is cheap and he's in the mix early. If the rookies grow together, Vele could be the top option in the receiving corps in the second half. I bumped Vele to a 13% target share for Week 2.
Jameson Williams has arrived
Williams led the Lions in targets and receiving in Week 1. That coincided with disappointing weeks from Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams gets a 3% target boost, which comes out of St. Brown's projection. Still, a way-too-early look shows St. Brown with nine targets next week and Williams with six. LaPorta's low total was more of a result of the Lions' low pass total, he still projects as one of the top tight ends in Week 2. Williams' pedigree and potential upside mean you could buy him now and still have room for profit.
Cooper Kupp is Back?
After the Puka Nacua injury, Kupp looked like his old self. If Nacua is out Week 2, expect to see Kupp projected as a top-10 wide receiver with a 30% target share.
