Jamey's 2026 Fantasy breakouts 1.0: Jaxson Dart headlines rising stars with top-five upside
Jamey highlights young stars, improved situations and potential Fantasy difference-makers
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1 min read
Jaxson Dart had a great rookie season in 2025. And he could be even better as a sophomore this year. He's an easy player to spotlight for Breakouts 1.0.
Last season, Dart averaged 19.4 Fantasy points per game, but that's misleading. If you use his 12 starts, then he averaged 22.6 Fantasy points per game. And he only played two quarters of his first start in Week 4 with Malik Nabers before he suffered a torn ACL.
This season, Dart gets Nabers back, along with new weapons in Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, and Malachi Fields. The Giants won't have Wan'Dale Robinson, who left as a free agent for Tennessee, but Cam Skattebo (ankle) is healthy.
The offensive line improved with the addition of first-round rookie Francis Mauigoa. And Dart should benefit with new coach John Harbaugh, who should build a winning environment.
Dart will hopefully continue to use his legs, and he averaged 40.6 rushing yards per game in his 12 starts, which was second only to Justin Fields (42.6). Dart also had nine rushing touchdowns, which tied for second with Trevor Lawrence, behind only Josh Allen (14).
There's a lot to love about Dart this year, and he has top-five upside. He's worth drafting as early as Round 5 in one-quarterback leagues, and he's a second-round pick in Superflex and two-quarterback formats.
Now, here are 12 other players I'm excited about for Breakouts 1.0.
Quarterbacks
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You can argue that Lawrence had a breakout season in 2025 when he averaged a career-best 23.3 Fantasy points per game. But I wouldn't be surprised if he improved in 2026 in his second year with coach Liam Coen. Last season, Lawrence set career highs in passing touchdowns (29), rushing attempts (82), rushing yards (359), and rushing touchdowns (nine). The touchdowns could regress, especially on the ground, but Coen encourages his quarterbacks to run (Baker Mayfield had a career-high 378 rushing yards and three touchdowns with Coen as his offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay in 2024). Lawrence also should improve as a passer since he only completed 60.9 percent of his throws for 4,007 yards. Hopefully, a full season with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and whatever Jacksonville gets from Travis Hunter on offense gives Lawrence a significant boost. And the run game could be worse with Travis Etienne now in New Orleans. I like Lawrence as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick in one-quarterback leagues, along with a Round 2 selection in Superflex and two-quarterback formats.
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Williams fell 58 yards shy of becoming the first Bears quarterback in franchise history with 4,000 passing yards in 2025. This year, he's going to achieve that goal -- hopefully by a large margin. Williams thrived under new coach Ben Johnson last season, averaging 21.9 Fantasy points per game, and he was hot to end the year. In his final six outings, including the playoffs, Williams averaged 23.7 Fantasy points per game, and that's when Colston Loveland started to heat up as well. Loveland, Luther Burden III, and Rome Odunze give Williams a potentially elite trio of weapons, and Williams is a good dual-threat quarterback as well, with 383 rushing yards and three touchdowns in 2025. Williams will likely be a mid-round selection in one-quarterback leagues and a Round 2 pick in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. I expect him to be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in his third season, and he should set records for Chicago in 2026.
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Running Backs
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Hampton had an uneven rookie season in 2025 due to injury, but he played well when healthy. This year, with a healthy offensive line and a new offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel, Hampton has the chance to be a star. I would draft him in Round 2 in all leagues. Last season, Hampton played in the first five games before suffering an ankle injury that cost him seven contests. In those first five games, he had three outings with at least 13 PPR points, including two games with at least 24.9 PPR points. When he returned in Week 14, the Chargers' offensive line was a mess, but Hampton still managed three of four outings with at least 14.7 PPR points before sitting out Week 18. I'm hopeful the Chargers will have starting offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy for the majority of the season in 2026, and McDaniel was great with running backs during his time as the head coach in Miami with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. I wouldn't be surprised if Hampton finished as a top-five Fantasy running back this year.
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Jeanty played well as a rookie in 2025 when he had 266 carries for 975 yards and five touchdowns and caught 55 passes for 346 yards and five touchdowns on 73 targets. He averaged 14.4 PPR points per game, which is a quality campaign for a rookie. We just had higher expectations for him when he was a first-round pick in the majority of Fantasy leagues, but he ended up as a bust since he finished as the No. 16 PPR running back. This year, Jeanty will be a Round 2 pick in most formats, but I expect him to deliver like we expected in 2025. I'm excited about Klint Kubiak taking over as the head coach, and the quarterback play in Las Vegas should be improved with the duo of Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins. Most importantly, the offensive line should be better with a healthy Kolton Miller at left tackle and the free agent addition of center Tyler Linderbaum. I do have a slight concern that rookie Mike Washington Jr. could take some touches from Jeanty, and Kubiak favored a two-back system in Seattle with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. But I still expect Jeanty's overwhelming talent to shine through, and he should challenge to be a top-five Fantasy running back this season.
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Things are looking good for Skattebo heading into this season, and he's worth drafting in Round 4 as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues. The Giants didn't get the chance to draft Jeremiyah Love, which was a possibility, but the Cardinals selected him instead at No. 3 overall in the first round. Skattebo (ankle) is healthy and already attended voluntary workouts in April after getting injured in Week 8 last season. And the Giants added a coach who loves to run the ball in John Harbaugh, as well as improved the offensive line with the addition of first-round rookie Francis Mauigoa. You want parts of the Giants offense this season, and Skattebo will be the lead running back if he doesn't suffer a setback in his recovery. Last year, his rookie campaign got off to a great start when he scored at least 13 PPR points in six games in a row from Weeks 2-7. Over that stretch, Skattebo was averaging 19.1 PPR points per game, and he looked like a Fantasy star. He suffered a gruesome ankle injury in Week 8 at Philadelphia and missed the rest of the season, but he appears on track to start in Week 1. He does have some competition for touches from Tyrone Tracy Jr., but Skattebo's Fantasy value would have been crushed if the Giants selected Love. I'm hopeful Skattebo will be healthy for Week 1 and could be a top-10 Fantasy running back in all leagues.
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The lone rookie on this list, Price, landed in a great spot with the Seahawks, who selected him in Round 1 of the NFL Draft at No. 32 overall. He should take over as the lead running back in Seattle in Week 1 with Kenneth Walker III gone as a free agent to Kansas City, and Zach Charbonnet (knee) is unlikely to play early in the season after suffering a torn ACL in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. The timeline for Charbonnet's recovery will determine how good Price will be during his rookie campaign, and I expect him to outperform Emanuel Wilson and George Holani this season. One of those other running backs will have a role for the Seahawks, and we'll see how Price does as the starter since he was the backup to Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. Price finished his final collegiate season in 2025 with 113 carries for 674 yards and 11 touchdowns and six catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. He has the potential to be a standout running back in Fantasy and reality, and landing in Seattle was the best destination since Walker (221 carries and 31 receptions) and Charbonnet (184 carries and 20 receptions) have a lot of vacated touches. I'm excited to draft Price in Round 5 as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, but he could move into Round 4 if Charbonnet misses most of the season. Price should have the chance for a standout rookie campaign in 2026.
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Wide Receiver
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Flowers took a step forward with his production in 2025, which was his third season in the NFL, when he averaged a career-best 14.3 PPR points per game. I expect him to be even better in 2026. He had career highs in catches (86), yards (1,211), and targets (118), and he tied his career high in touchdowns (five). He also closed last season on a tear, which will hopefully carry over to this year. In his final five games in 2025, Flowers averaged 20.1 PPR points per game, including three outings with at least 20.6 PPR points. He had four touchdowns during that stretch and two games with at least 124 receiving yards. The Ravens added two rookie receivers in Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, and Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews will remain heavily involved in the offense. But new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle should allow Flowers to flourish, and Lamar Jackson should continue to lean on Flowers as the No. 1 target in the passing game. I plan to draft Flowers as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in Round 3.
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We're expecting A.J. Brown to be traded in June, which should give Smith the chance to be the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles. Philadelphia prepared for Brown's departure with the addition of first-round rookie Makai Lemon, as well as veterans in Marquise Brown, Dontayvion Wicks and Elijah Moore. But Smith should now be the No. 1 option in the passing game, and he's headed for the best season of his five-year career. It's a small sample size, but Smith has played three games over the past two seasons without A.J. Brown, and Smith averaged 16.6 PPR points over that span. More importantly, he averaged 9.7 targets per game, and he should see plenty of opportunities from Jalen Hurts in 2026. Brown will leave behind 8.1 targets per game, and while some of that will go to Lemon and the other new additions, we expect Hurts and Smith to improve their rapport and propel Smith to stardom. I would draft Smith as early as Round 3 in the majority of leagues as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
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I'm excited about both Bears receivers this season, and both should benefit with D.J. Moore now in Buffalo. Burden is worth drafting as early as Round 4 as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and I like Odunze as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Round 5. Let's start with Burden, who showed flashes of his potential as a rookie in 2025. He had four games with at least seven targets last season from Week 15 on, including the playoffs, and he averaged 13.6 PPR points over that span. Moore leaves behind 85 targets, and I'm hoping a good portion of that goes to Burden. Odunze got off to a hot start before missing five games with a foot injury from Weeks 14-18. But he started the season on fire with at least 15.2 PPR points in five of his first seven games, and he scored five touchdowns during that stretch and two outings with at least 114 receiving yards. Along with Colston Loveland, this trio has the chance to be special in Fantasy and reality, and Fantasy managers should try to get at least one Chicago pass catcher if possible. Caleb Williams is also in line for a big season, and the Bears should be fun to watch in 2026.
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Tight Ends
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Loveland was a star to end his rookie campaign in 2025, and hopefully that will carry over to this year. He has top-three upside this season and should be a popular breakout candidate in 2026. I would draft Loveland as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues, and the only tight ends I like better than him on Draft Day are Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. Loveland got off to a slow start as a rookie due to injury and inconsistent play. But from Week 12 on, including the playoffs, he scored at least 10.1 PPR points in six of his final nine games. And in his final four outings, Loveland averaged 19.9 PPR points per game. It helped that he was the featured act in the passing game over that span, with at least 10 targets per game in all four contests, and he averaged seven catches and 94.5 yards per game, with two touchdowns. Caleb Williams should continue to lean on Loveland, and he should be a league-winner for Fantasy managers this season.
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We've been waiting for the chance to see Likely in a featured role, and he finally gets that this season after leaving Baltimore for a three-year deal with the Giants. No more Mark Andrews to block Likely from being the starting tight end, and he should be one of the top targets for Jaxson Dart this year. Ideally, Likely will be second on the Giants in targets behind Malik Nabers, and we'd love to see Likely average at least six targets per game. In his four-year career with the Ravens, Likely has nine games with at least six targets. He scored at least 12.5 PPR points in eight of them and averaged 16.6 PPR points over that span. Likely will have to contend with Nabers, Darnell Mooney, and Malachi Fields for opportunities, but there's a lot to love about the situation. And Dart showed as a rookie that he will lean on his tight ends. Theo Johnson had 10 starts with Dart in 2025, and Johnson scored at least 10.2 PPR points in six of those outings, while averaging 5.5 targets per game over that span. Likely is more talented than Johnson, and the targets should be better for Likely this season. He's an easy tight end to target with a mid-round pick in all leagues, and I expect him to be a top-10 Fantasy option in 2026.
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