One strong consensus in 2024 is that this is the best rookie wide receiver class we've seen in at least a decade. Most everyone I talked to this summer on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty agreed that Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were the top three wide receiver prospects of the past three seasons. And they believed the draft was deep at the position as well.
That level of excitement only shows up in redraft rankings for one of those wide receivers, at least for me. Harrison is a top-12 wide receiver this year for almost everyone, and he's one of my breakouts below. You'll have to take him in Round 2 if you want him. Nabers has a consensus ranking closer to 24 and is one of my biggest rankings outliers. I don't doubt his talent, but I certainly doubt the wisdom of taking a wide receiver who is catching passes from Daniel Jones in Round 3. No one seems to have any idea what they should do with Odunze.
The most common comparison is to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, because of the target competition that Odunze will face from both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Another similarity is that Shane Waldron called plays for Seattle last year and will be Odunze's offensive coordinator this year. Of course, that's a pretty unfavorable comparison, as Smith-Njigba finished last season as WR60, averaging just 8.8 Fantasy points per game.
Assuming these three receivers really are as talented as the experts believe, you may just want to throw projections out the window in a draft or two, to make sure you don't totally miss on Nabers and Odunze. At the very least, you should watch the waiver wire early in the season to see if anyone drops either. While a lot of rookie wide receivers do bust, the ones who hit often do so with second-half explosions. And those explosions often come after very slow starts. Rashee Rice didn't have more than five catches in a game until Week 12. Amon-Ra St. Brown didn't score a touchdown until Week 13 of his rookie season. Patience is required with rookie pass catchers, even elite prospects.
As for the rest of the class, I'm looking to throw mid-round darts at Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Keon Coleman, but none before Round 7. In deeper leagues, you may even want to take a shot on one of the Patriots rookies. It's rare for wide receivers taken late in deep drafts to matter in redraft, but they're often rookies when they do.
Wide receiver draft strategy
If you want to draft elite wide receivers, get ready to spend more than you ever have. Near the bottom of this page, you'll see my tiers, and they should help differentiate who I think is elite. Essentially, a Tier 1 wide receiver (I say there are six) is going to cost you a Round 1 pick. If you want a top 10 wide receiver, they all go in the first two rounds, except for Mike Evans. Where things get really interesting in terms of strategy is Tier 4.
These are wide receivers 11 through 31 in my rankings, and in my projections, they are separated by less than one Fantasy point per game. It's an enormous tier of guys best thought of as WR2s, but I would love to have my WR3 or flex come from this group as well. Their ADP in CBS PPR leagues ranged from 30th overall (Nico Collins) to 82nd overall (Christian Kirk). I would challenge you to compare your thoughts on these wideouts to ADP and center your wide receiver strategy around that.
The other thing to figure out in terms of wide receiver strategy is how you feel about the 30-plus crowd. Evans, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins all have the potential to be enormous values based on ADP if they don't lose a step and can stay healthy.
Once you get to the later rounds, focus on those rookies above and young post-hype sleepers like Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams. Also, focus on my two favorite sleepers, who are in the next section.
Now let's get to sleepers, breakouts, and busts. One quick note: ADP here is the current CBS ADP.
If you look at ADP, rookie Ladd McConkey is everyone's favorite Chargers' wide receiver. While he may have the upside and draft capital, Josh Palmer has the experience with Justin Herbert. Palmer played three games last year without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and caught 17 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.9 PPR Fantasy points per game. In 2022, the duo missed two games and Palmer caught 11 passes for 150 yards and averaged 13 PPR FPPG. I project him to lead the team in targets in Week 1 and even once McConkey gets acclimated, I believe Palmer could be a valuable Fantasy asset.
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This summer, Douglas has reportedly been the Patriots' best wide receiver, though Kendrick Bourne has not been a participant. This tracks because last year Bourne was the team's top wideout before he got hurt, and then Douglas led the team with seven targets per game the rest of the way. Bourne is starting the year on the PUP, and I expect Douglas will hold onto the slot role even when the vet comes back. Of course, he'll also have to hold off rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. The nice thing is, that all of the Patriots wide receivers qualify as sleepers with their ADPs, just pick your favorite.
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We're drafting Wilson at the end of Round 1 and I don't believe it's far-fetched to say he has WR1 overall upside. Aaron Rodgers has often targeted his number one wide receiver at a rate of 10 targets per game or higher and Wilson has already shown the ability to earn that volume. It's just difficult to know how much to bump his efficiency because it has understandably been pedestrian. If he can approach nine yards per target and match Rodgers' career six percent TD rate then Wilson will be in the conversation with Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb for WR1.
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Last year George Pickens accounted for 33.3% of the Steelers' receiving yards and 38.4% of their receiving touchdowns. Since then, the team has added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields while losing Diontae Johnson. If you're thinking in your head "Yeah, but Arthur Smith" know that Smith's Falcons threw the ball more than the Steelers did last year and that Pickens' offensive coordinator last year was Matt Canada. Want to talk about upside? In four games without Johnson last year, Pickens was on pace for 72 catches for 1,517 yards and that doesn't include his top two yardage games last year. Top 12 is not out of consideration, especially if Russell Wilson keeps throwing touchdowns at a high rate.
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Like Wilson, Harrison is another former Buckeye that I have no problem projecting as a future No. 1 wide receiver overall. It probably won't happen during his rookie season, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely. Harrison should be the clear top wideout in targets and we've already seen Kyler Murray lock in on his WR1 when he had one. In his first year in Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins earned a 27.2% target share on a team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Harrison could hit that mark as a rookie, but truly hitting his ceiling will depend on red zone production and just how efficient he can be. He averaged 16.9 yards per reception in three years at Ohio State.
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It looks like Rice will avoid a suspension in 2024, so he's back inside my top 12 wide receiver in full PPR. He saw a 25% target share in his final six games of his rookie season and second half splits for rookie receivers often prove to matter more than most. I expect him to lead the Chiefs in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns this season. The addition of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy will only make things less crowded for Rice underneath.
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My rule for veteran receivers is when they show you a dropoff, believe them. Adams saw a huge downturn in his efficiency last year across the board. That may just be a quarterback issue, but his quarterback situation doesn't look great in 2024 and his target competition got more crowded with the addition of Brock Bowers. I would not draft Adams in the first three rounds or the top 20 wide receivers.
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Numbers to know
- 18.1 -- George Pickens led all wide receivers at 18.1 yards per reception last year. He won't keep that up, but volume and catch rate boosts should more than make up for it.
- 1,001 -- Mike Evans has topped 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career and his 1,255 last year was his best number since 2018.
- 36.6% -- Tyreek Hill's 36.6% targets per route run rate was 20% better than any other wide receiver last year.
- 3.0 -- Since the start of the 2022 season, 29 WRs have seen at least 100 targets. Drake London's 3.0 yards after catch per reception is tied for 26th best. Only Adam Thielen and DeAndre Hopkins have done less after the catch.
- 6 -- There have been six games over the past two seasons that Tee Higgins has left early with injury. Part of your receiver draft strategy has to be determining whether he is actually injury prone, or just unlucky. If it's the latter, then Higgins is a huge steal on Draft Day, he's been a high-end WR2 when healthy with Burrow.
- 2.39 -- Nico Collins led all wide receivers (minimum 100 targets) at 2.39 Fantasy points per target last year. Stefon Diggs was 22nd at 1.71. Tank Dell didn't have enough targets to qualify but scored 2.20 FPPT, tied for sixth-best amongst WRs with at least 50 targets.
- 41.3% -- Calvin Ridley led all wide receivers with a 41.3% red zone target rate last year. New teammate DeAndre Hopkins was fourth at 36.2%.
- 8.7 -- Rashee Rice averaged 8.7 targets per game after the Chiefs bye. He was WR12 per game in that stretch.
Format matters
Most of this piece, including tiers and ADP, are based on PPR leagues. We recognize many of you play in half-PPR. Here's a list of players who we expect to be significantly better, and worse, in half-PPR:
Better in half-PPR: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Tank Dell, DK Metcalf, Christian Watson,
Worse in half-PPR: Chris Olave, Michael Pittman, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson
