Note: Sign up for FanDuel and receive a free entry into a one-week Fantasy Football league for real money. Finish anywhere in the top-half to win cash. Enter now.
Each week, the Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will combine analysis, data and game predictions with a confidence scale to help owners get a definitive answer on who to start in their leagues.
Nice. But what about those numbers all over the place? That's our confidence scale. It slides from 10.0 for an amazing start to 5.0 for an average rating to a 1.0 for a nauseous rating.
Is the confidence scale based on a specific scoring system? It is based on standard leagues but is (mostly) applicable to PPR leagues. You should probably consult our PPR-specific rankings for more detail.
Who is listed below? Everyone that matters, but anyone already starting in 90 percent or more of CBSSports.com leagues is considered an obvious must-start. We're not going to waste your time trying to convince you to start Tom Brady.
What if someone isn't listed below? If someone's missing, it's not an accident. Anyone missing is a definitive must sit, if not a must-cut player. Or they're on bye.
What's the best way to find a specific player on this page? Use your personal search function -- CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on MACs. If neither of those are options, or if you're on a mobile device, you can search by game. Games are listed by starting times.
But what if I am still unsure who to start or sit after reading this? Ask me! Shoot me a note on Twitter (@daverichard) (I'll keep an eye out for the #CBSFCS hashtag). You can also always consult our rankings, which constantly reflect our feelings on players around the league. They're pretty much updated every day.
Let's clinch a playoff spot!
Cardinals at Rams, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Carson Palmer (8.6): Obvious must-start, especially when you realize two of the last three quarterbacks to play the Rams threw three touchdowns each against them.
Nick Foles (3.2): Foles somehow threw three touchdowns against the Cards back in Week 4. Since that game, only three quarterbacks have had 20-plus Fantasy points. Foles was a mess against a good defense last week and should be similarly messy in Week 13.
Running backs
David Johnson (7.55): It's a heck of an opportunity for the rookie. Johnson, who has already displayed the ability to catch the ball, make plays out of nothing and score from short yardage, should have a shot at a lot of touches. That's a good thing -- seven of nine running backs to get at least 17 touches against the Rams this year have come up with at least 100 total yards. The upside is undeniable, even though the Rams typically play the Cardinals tough. After spending much of the week thinking Johnson will struggle a little, there's just enough evidence that points to him being worth starting as a Top 15 option.
Todd Gurley (7.65): Just 10 touches last week for Gurley?! That's embarrassing for the Rams. Expect the coaches to lean on Gurley more, just as they did at Arizona in Week 4 when Gurley totaled 161 yards.
Wide receivers
Larry Fitzgerald (7.4): In Week 4 Fitzgerald was one yard shy of posting his fourth game with 10 or more Fantasy points in his last five against the Rams. As it stands he's had at least nine in four of those five meetings and should be good for at least that much.
John Brown (6.8): I know there's some trepidation in starting Brown, but in his last five games with at least one catch, he has posted a minimum of nine Fantasy points. He looked pretty good last week when Palmer lobbed seven passes at him, the most for him since Week 6. He should be suitable as a low-end No. 2 receiver. Why not higher? The Rams rank second in fewest 20-plus-yard pass plays allowed (30) and fifth in fewest 40-plus-yard plays allowed (five).
Michael Floyd (5.9): It felt like last week was the "rust" game for Floyd, particularly since he had limited snaps and targets. The Cardinals should be open to giving him more work, but he's still a long way from being as reliable as he was from Weeks 6 though 10. Don't use him as anything more than a No. 3 receiver.
Tavon Austin (5.8): Austin always has a chance to play well when he plays on turf and at home. He had 10 touches last week and should contend for that many against the Cardinals. He makes the cut as a No. 3 Fantasy option based on his potential.
Tight ends
Darren Fells (2.4): A deep, deep sleeper considering how faulty the Rams coverage against tight ends has been over the last three weeks.
Defense/Special teams
Cardinals (8.1): You saw what the Bengals defense did against the Rams last week, right? Maybe St. Louis puts up a bigger effort this week but three straight DSTs to play them have posted at least 13 points.
Rams (4.8): The Rams accrued four sacks, an interception and three forced fumbled against the Cardinals back in Week 4. The Rams' season has soured since. Only one DST -- the Seahawks in Seattle -- have posted 10-plus points on Arizona since Week 7. Try to find it within yourself to bench the Rams DST. It would have been the right move over each of their last four games.
Bengals at Browns, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton (9.0): Practically a must-start. The Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight, including against Dalton & Co. back in Week 9. He's fortunate to have the receivers he's got to help cover for Tyler Eifert, who isn't expected to play.
Austin Davis (2.8): Only three quarterbacks have posted 20-plus points on the Bengals all season. The Browns are unlikely to find a quarterback with that kind of potential with Josh McCown sidelined. Running backs
Giovani Bernard (6.7) & Jeremy Hill (6.6): Here's the funny thing about these guys -- since Week 5, they've both either done really well or been really crummy in the same week. Week 5 was the last time one had a big Fantasy total while the other did not. To me, that suggests the run game issues go beyond Hill being bad and Bernard not getting the ball enough. All that matters this week is that the Bengals should feast on a Browns run defense that given up 4.8 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per catch to running backs this season. Bernard is the better option of the two, but given the matchup, both should be pretty good. Of course, we said the same thing in Week 9 and you know how that turned out.
Duke Johnson (4.2): Duke's the best back in the Browns backfield, which is like being the best looking guy at your grandmother's Tupperware party. He's only worth a start as a deep flex option in PPR leagues.
Wide receivers
A.J. Green (8.3): Obvious must-start.
Marvin Jones (4.8): Jones has posted six Fantasy points or fewer in five straight. So ... he's due for a big game! Cleveland has allowed at least eight Fantasy points to multiple receivers in six of 11 games. He's outside of the No. 3 receiver discussion -- flashy rookies like Devin Funchess and DeVante Parker offer more potential in their matchups -- but a gutsy Fantasy owner could take a chance with him.
Travis Benjamin (4.6): Benjamin has delivered quality numbers in consecutive games, the first time he's done so since Weeks 1 and 2 this season. But he's already struggled once this season against the Bengals and will play them again without trusty quarterback Josh McCown. It makes him a risky start.
Brian Hartline (4.0): It's one thing to take note of Hartline's last two games -- at least six catches and 70 yards in each. It's another thing to start him without a quality quarterback throwing at him. He's a fine choice if you're really thin at receiver in a PPR league, but that's about it.
Tight ends
Gary Barnidge (6.8): It's hard to pull him from lineups, but pretty much all of his numbers have come with McCown under center. His last game against Cincy? Thirty-five yards on two catches. Hope that the lessons learned under McCown are shared with the Browns' other quarterbacks.
Defense/Special teams
Bengals (9.1): It's the second week in a row the Bengals will take on an offense starting a backup quarterback. Six straight DSTs have posted at least 11 Fantasy points against Cleveland, including the Bengals (13 in Week 9).
Browns (1.5): There's no good reason to even think about the Browns DST. So why do it? Why are you even reading this?
Seahawks at Vikings, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (6.9): Wilson's played great the last two weeks (his O-line has improved) but it's come at home versus creampuff defenses. The Vikings have allowed good numbers to quarterbacks but nothing gaudy -- the most is 23 points to Stafford in Week 2. The Vikes also have four interceptions in their last three games. Wilson is a borderline starting option in what will be his toughest matchup since hosting the Cardinals three weeks ago, a game he notched 18 points in.
Teddy Bridgewater (3.0): On the year the Seahawks are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, but in the last three weeks that number has ballooned to 7.9 yards per. That might not matter to Bridgewater, who has thrown for over 250 yards in just three games this season. No one is starting him with any confidence.
Running backs
Thomas Rawls (8.1): The Seahawks offensive line has improved, and it has helped Rawls. This will be an interesting matchup. The Vikings have given up just four rushing touchdowns this season (one at home) to running backs but have yielded 4.3 yards per carry over their last three. If Tevin Coleman could come up with 110 rush yards on Minnesota last week, Rawls should too.
Adrian Peterson (9.3): Obvious must-start, even in a tough matchup like this one.
Wide receivers
Doug Baldwin (6.0): Last week's success came against a Steelers secondary that looked tired and worn out. This week Baldwin might have a shot against a Vikings secondary that has allowed a touchdown to a wideout in six of its last seven games. If he gets matched up against Xavier Rhodes, who has allowed six touchdowns this season, he could find another decent game. He's worth trying as a No. 3 receiver.
Stefon Diggs (4.3): Strike One: He has been a bust for weeks. Strike Two: he has five or fewer targets in three of his last four games. Strike Three: Richard Sherman warmed up for his matchup against Diggs by shutting down Antonio Brown last week. It would be a stunner to see Diggs finish with more than six Fantasy points, which was his high mark over his last four games.
Tight ends
Luke Willson (2.0): Wilson has some decent history with Wilson, but if Jimmy Graham couldn't get good numbers in the Seattle offense, what makes you think Willson will?
Kyle Rudolph (5.7): Take note: Rudolph's targets have ratcheted up over the last two weeks. He's had eight and 10 targets (for six and seven catches) in his last two games. He'll need to score to be useful to your Fantasy team, which is cool because the Seahawks' coverage against tight ends hasn't been great. They allowed touchdowns in consecutive weeks to tight ends before Week 12 when Heath Miller got hurt.
Defense/Special teams
Seahawks (7.8): Five of the last six DSTs to challenge the Vikings finished with eight Fantasy points or fewer. It would be a little surprising to see the Seahawks get only eight points -- they've had that many in all but one game this season and have had 10-plus points in all but four matchups.
Vikings (6.4): The Vikings have at least 10 Fantasy points in five of their last seven games but the Seahawks have held opposing DSTs to eight Fantasy points or fewer in six of their last seven. EVen with the Vikings playing at home, they're risky.
Jets at Giants, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick (7.2): With 21-plus points given up to opposing quarterbacks in three of their last four games, the Giants shouldn't be much of a problem for Fitzpatrick. The four-score game last week was an aberration but the multi-touchdown streak he's on in the games he's actually finished is not.
Eli Manning (7.5): Last week was b-a-d for Manning, but we've seen him bounce back in big spots like this before. Five of the last six quarterbacks to face the Jets have posted at least 19 points, with five getting 24-plus points. Those numbers -- 19 and 24, should represent Manning's floor and ceiling, particularly since he's had multiple passing scores in four straight games and over 320 yards in three of those four.
Running backs
Chris Ivory (9.0): Obvious must-start.
Shane Vereen (4.5): No one should be excited to start a Giants rusher. Not a single one has had 10 Fantasy points over their last three games (Vereen had nine back in Week 9). If there's a glimmer of hope for Vereen it's that the Jets have allowed more receiving touchdowns to running backs (four) than rushing touchdowns (one), including two grabs for scores in their last three games.
Wide receivers
Brandon Marshall (9.2): Obvious must-start.
Eric Decker (8.1): The Giants have been big on allowing yards but not necessarily touchdowns to receivers. Half of the 10 touchdowns they've given up on the season came in the high-scoring showdown in New Orleans. For a guy as touchdown dependent as Decker is, this might be a matchup that lets you down a little.
Odell Beckham (9.5): Obvious must-start.
Dwayne Harris (4.2) & Rueben Randle (3.7): Both of these guys are problematic for Fantasy. They both play a lot, they both have the potential for big games and both have let owners down most weeks. The Jets secondary is a complete mess, allowing multiple touchdowns to receivers in four of its last five games including three to the Dolphins in garbage time last week. If there's an edge for one of these guys it's that Harris plays in the slot and is likely to see inferior coverage.
Defense/Special teams
Giants (3.2): With the pass rush not getting to the quarterback and interceptions slowing down, there's no reason to risk having the Giants DST in your lineup.
Jets (5.6): The Redskins got some lucky bounces to wind up with three interceptions of Manning last week. The Jets might get one pick and a couple of sacks but they shouldn't fare all that well against the G-Men.
Jaguars at Titans, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles (7.7): Four of the last five quarterbacks to play the Titans have posted 21-plus Fantasy points. The one who didn't? Bortles, who had two turnovers on a Thursday night against them in Week 11. That was Bortles' only game without two touchdowns in his last seven. He'd be a slam dunk if Allen Hurns played, but even without him he should be all right.
Marcus Mariota (6.7): The Jaguars have given up 20-plus points to quarterbacks in five of their last six games. The outlier? That would be Mariota, who came up with zero touchdown passes against the Jags on a Thursday night. With his receiving corps a little stronger, Mariota should have a good game against Jacksonville. Mariota has typically done well in favorable matchups. He's a good option if you just lost Tony Romo to injury.
Running backs
T.J. Yeldon (6.2): Yeldon has become frustrating; he's the Jaguars best back but he doesn't always get the work needed to be a great Fantasy option. Now he's stuck in a matchup against a Titans run defense that's given up one rushing score and 3.4 yards per rush to running backs over its last six games. Yeldon had 82 total yards versus the Titans in Week 11 -- that's right about what you should expect this time.
Antonio Andrews (4.4): There's not much appeal with Andrews. The Titans coaches have talked about getting David Cobb more work, which would mean less work for Andrews. And then there's the matchup against the Jaguars, who are allowing 3.4 yards per carry this season. He's not a reliable starter.
Wide receivers
Allen Robinson (9.1): Obvious must-start.
Kendall Wright (5.2): The matchup is splendid. The Jaguars have given up 12 touchdowns to receivers in 11 games including at least one in five of their last six. That's good news for the touchdown-dependent Wright. He's worth thinking about as a No. 3 receiver.
Tight ends
Julius Thomas (7.8): It's starting to look like Thomas is rounding into the player the Jaguars thought they were signing. Over his past two games he has caught 14 of 18 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown in each. He's also one of four tight ends to catch a touchdown on the Titans over their last four games. He has the makings of a strong Fantasy starter.
Delanie Walker (8.0): Walker is one of four tight ends to score 10-plus Fantasy points on the Jaguars over the last three weeks. Considering his targets and receptions lately, it would be a stunner if he struggled this week.
Defense/Special teams
Jaguars (5.7): Only two DSTs this season have failed to get 12 Fantasy points against the Titans, who are averaging 18.5 points and 314.5 total yards per game. Yet the hunch is Tennessee will have more success in this game than it did on its Thursday night game at Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Jaguars DST is a risky choice.
Titans (3.8): The Jaguars fell below their season-long averages against the Titans at home in Week 11, but that had a lot to do with the short week of preparation and recovery. Expect the Jaguars to come close (if not exceed) the 21.5 points and 347.4 total yards per game they've averaged this season.
Ravens at Dolphins, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Matt Schaub (3.4): Schaub found 18 Fantasy points last week against the Browns, an impressive feat considering the quarterback. Of course, he would have had more had he not thrown his trademark interceptions (including one returned for a score). As ugly as the Dolphins pass defense has been, only Ryan Fitzpatrick last week found more than 19 Fantasy points against them since Week 8.
Ryan Tannehill (7.1): Be it because of garbage time or not, Tannehill has thrown multiple touchdowns and had a minimum of 18 Fantasy points in three straight. The matchup versus the Ravens is dreamy -- only Peyton Manning, Michael Vick and Case Keenum have failed to notch 19 Fantasy points against them this season. Based on this, Tannehill has a pretty good shot to record one of his better games of the year. Playing at home helps (at least two touchdowns in every home game) and a lack of a quality run game helps too. He's one of the sneakiest Daily Fantasy plays you'll find this week.
Running backs
Javorius Allen (7.6): After getting 16 touches and a touchdown last week, expect more work for Allen against a Miami defense allowing over 150 total yards per game to running backs. Enjoy it while you can -- the Ravens schedule turns sour starting in Week 14.
Lamar Miller (4.8) & Jay Ajayi (4.7): We're heading toward a split in the Dolphins backfield. Ajayi has shown some good explosion in his running and Miller's touches are back in the single-digit territory. A new play-caller for the Dolphins could delay it from happening this week, but it might not matter. The Dolphins offensive line isn't in great shape and the Ravens run defense is allowing 3.6 yards per carry on the season with five total touchdowns allowed to running backs.
Wide receivers
Kamar Aiken (6.1): With touchdowns in each of his last two games, Aiken's showing he can be more than "just a guy" for the Ravens. The bulk of targets have helped -- at least eight in each game since the Ravens bye week. The Dolphins have allowed 12 touchdowns to receivers in their past eight games (at least one per game). Aiken still feels risky because he's barely proven himself and his quarterback is icky, but the matchup suggests a third-straight game with a score.
Jarvis Landry (7.8): Landry figures to see a couple of extra targets with Rishard Matthews sidelined -- that doesn't guarantee a great game for him but the matchup sure hints strongly at a monster. Baltimore has allowed multiple touchdowns to receivers in five of its last six games. In that span eight receivers have posted at least 10 Fantasy points. Landry is worth starting as a rock solid No. 2 Fantasy option.
DeVante Parker (5.5): With Matthews sidelined, Parker should get an opportunity to play nearly every down against the Ravens' woeful pass defense. He's on the No. 3 receiver radar.
Tight ends
Crockett Gillmore (4.4): Gillmore was an afterthought in the Ravens offense last week, a jarring turn of events considering the team's new quarterback. Now he'll take on the Dolphins, who have allowed yardage in bunches to tight ends but just three have scored on them this season, including just one in the last eight games. Owners who have been starting Gillmore could consider Jacob Tamme or Austin Seferian-Jenkins as high-upside alternatives.
Defense/Special teams
Ravens (5.0): Five straight DSTs have posted 10-plus Fantasy points on the Dolphins, holding them to an average of 15.6 points and 299.8 total yards per game. The Ravens have been hot over the last two weeks against cupcake offenses (the Rams and Browns), but their success has been sort of fluky (two special-teams touchdowns last week, for example). They're not worth starting.
Dolphins (5.4): "Pick-six Schaub" might be enough for owners to trust the Dolphins DST, but playing at home against a tired Ravens team that played on the road on Monday could be just what the unit needs to come up with some sacks and turnovers. They're a sleeper DST.
Texans at Bills, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Brian Hoyer (5.1): There's something about the matchup that rubs me the wrong way. The Bills pass defense is certainly nothing to write home about but they're playing at home after three straight road games and clinging to playoff hopes. There's also a chance the Texans find success running the ball that could keep Hoyer from having a huge game. Either way, he doesn't feel like a super Fantasy option.
Tyrod Taylor (4.8): There are two reasons for Taylor's success last week: Sammy Watkins made some smart plays and Taylor didn't feel as much of a pass rush as we anticipated due to Justin Houston's injury. He'll still have Watkins, and he'll be asked to chuck it deep to him, but he'll also have to deal with a strong Texans pass rush and challenging secondary. In fact, the Texans have allowed just one passing touchdown over their last gour, including holding Drew Brees and Andy Dalton scoreless! Taylor's a big risk.
Running backs
Alfred Blue (7.2): Blue has posted back-to-back weeks with at least 17 touches, at least 80 yards and one touchdown per game. He'll take on a Bills run defense that has allowed a running back to score in six of its last seven. The Bills have also given up at least 80 yards to a back in four of their last five. Blue is worth trusting as a No. 2 Fantasy running back.
LeSean McCoy (9.2): Obvious must-start.
Wide receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (9.4): Obvious must-start.
Cecil Shorts (3.6) & Nate Washington (3.0): The Bills pass defense hasn't been great but it's typically the top-shelf receivers who do the most damage against them. Week 6 is the last time a non-premier receiver scored on them. Neither Texans backup is worth trusting.
Sammy Watkins (7.3): Watkins was a superhero last week, making incredible plays deep against the Chiefs. Most will start Watkins based on that effort along with Rex Ryan's proclamation that the team needs to get him the ball more, but the matchup is a challenge. Houston's pass defense has improved over its last four games, giving up exactly one touchdown to a receiver and zero 100-yard games. Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph, Charles James and Kevin Johnson have really made a difference, and they'll make things tough on Watkins. Have No. 2 receiver expectations.
Defense/Special teams
Texans (6.6): Would anyone be surprised if the Texans had three or more sacks and two-plus takeaways? They'll need that to post a good game against the Bills, who have held each of the last four DSTs they've challenged to 10 Fantasy points or less. They're start-worthy but not Top 5 worthy.
Bills (5.2): Three of the last four teams to play the Texans posted nine or fewer Fantasy points, the exception being the Bengals. The Bills should struggle, particularly after putting Kyle Williams and Alex Carrington on injured reserve and losing linebacker Nigel Bradham for the game.
49ers at Bears, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Blaine Gabbert (3.9): Gabbert has posted 18, 18 and 17 Fantasy points over his last three. That's nice, but it's not what we're looking for from a starter. The Bears have held all but four quarterbacks to 17 points or less this season (just two since Week 3).
Jay Cutler (7.3): Cutler's last two games might scare you off, as might the matchup. The 49ers have held four of the last five passers they've played to 18 Fantasy points or fewer, but it's not necessarily because of outstanding secondary play. This defense isn't as good as its numbers look nor is it as good on the road as at Levi's Stadium. Current Bears defensive coordinator and ex-49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio probably has a good beat on the unit and that should help Cutler.
Running backs
Shaun Draughn (6.4): Draughn's consistency has been appealing (77-plus yards and 17-plus touches in three straight), but his matchup is pretty darn good. Since their Week 7 bye the Bears are allowing 5.0 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per catch to running backs. He seems safe to get at least 80 total yards and has the potential to hit triple digits.
Matt Forte (7.45) & Jeremy Langford (7.4): Last week, Forte took the first two series and then they alternated series, occasionally spelling each other after a long string of plays. Neither guy was a "goal line back" or "passing downs back," they just took turns each time the Bears got the ball. Both looked good but Langford was slightly more explosive. The matchup is great -- the Niners have allowed six touchdowns and 169.8 total yards per game to running backs over their last five. It's just a matter of who will be in the game when the Bears pop open a big rushing lane or are up against the goal line.
Wide receivers
Anquan Boldin (5.6): Boldin's been good for five catches and 90 yards in two games with Gabbert under center. It's nice, but the Bears haven't allowed a receiver to get to 90 yards since Stefon Diggs had 95 yards in Week 8, and he was the last of four wideouts to get that many against Chicago.
Alshon Jeffery (8.5): The Niners have allowed 13-plus points to a receiver in six of their last seven games with at least one score to a wideout in five of those seven. Jeffery should be a staple in Fantasy lineups by now.
Tight ends
Vance McDonald (4.9): Tight ends have been regular targets for Gabbert since becoming the Niners starter, targeting them 24 times for 19 receptions, 269 yards and four touchdowns (at least one per game). The Bears have been great against tight ends, giving up just two scores to the position all season, and they'll be on to Gabbert's tendencies in the red zone. A six-catch, 70-yard game from McDonald would be within expectations.
Zach Miller (4.8) & Martellus Bennett (3.4): Both will play, both will get targets, neither should be started by Fantasy owners because they can cut into each other's stats. But until Bennett starts to outproduce Miller, he'll be the one I say to bench of the two. The Niners haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end in six straight games.
Defense/Special teams
49ers (1.9): The Niners have posted five or fewer Fantasy points in four straight games and have a max of four Fantasy points when playing on the road.
Bears (7.2): Given the edge the Bears coaching staff has on the Niners offense, plus the Bears DST's recent success, it's a pretty easy decision to trust Chicago at home.
Falcons at Buccaneers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan (4.6): The knee-jerk reaction is to start Ryan because the Buccaneers pass defense is weak. They've allowed two-plus passing touchdowns to seven of the last eight quarterbacks they've lined up against, inclduing Ryan in Week 8. But Ryan's been pretty ugly to watch lately and he typically plays worse outdoors on natural grass than indoors on turf. He's never had 20 Fantasy points in a game at Tampa Bay in his career and has at least one interception in six of seven career games at Raymond James Stadium (four with two interceptions). He cannot be trusted.
Jameis Winston (4.4): The strength of the Falcons defense is in its secondary, which means this will be a bigger game for the Bucs run game than their pass game. Winston's five-touchdown outburst at Philadelphia is his only game with multiple passing touchdowns in his last five. Save him for next week versus New Orleans.
Running backs
Devonta Freeman (8.0): Freeman shouldn't be particularly rusty after missing one game because of a concussion, but the matchup is nasty. Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray and Frank Gore each had six Fantasy points or less against the Bucs over the last three weeks. But that's with Bucs defensive tackle Gerald McCoy on the field -- if he's not on the field then the defense isn't quite as good and Freeman should be expected to get to at least the 131 total yards against the Bucs back in Week 8.
Doug Martin (9.1): Obvious must-start.
Charles Sims (4.1): If you need four or five Fantasy points, Sims is your guy. If you need seven or eight in a PPR, Sims is your guy. If you're the type of person who likes to aim higher, Sims isn't your guy. He's proven to be a touchdown-dependent Fantasy option.
Wide receivers
Julio Jones (9.3): Obvious must-start.
Roddy White (3.5): The Falcons remembered they had White last week and started using him more. It only makes sense for them to keep doing so in Week 13 against a sloppy Bucs secondary, but expectations remain low (maybe 60 yards).
Mike Evans (7.2): He's not exactly an obvious must-start -- the Falcons have allowed just three touchdowns and three 100-yard games to receivers all year. His potential is obvious but the matchup won't be a piece of cake.
Vincent Jackson (5.1): Only three receivers have scored on the Falcons this season, and all of them have quick-twitch moves and speed. Jackson is a slower touchdown-dependent Fantasy receiver. You should feel confident moving away from Jackson in standard leagues, but just for this week.
Tight ends
Jacob Tamme (5.1): There's always hope for Tamme to have a good game when Leonard Hankerson is out, and this week he'll try to post good stats against a Bucs defense giving up 1.2 points per target to tight ends. Tamme has six-plus targets in each of his last four games without Hankerson.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (4.3): Seferian-Jenkins is expected to make his return after missing months with injuries. Should owners trust him? Maybe not right away, though if you're in a pinch he'll do. Just over 30 percent of Winston's touchdowns have gone to his tight ends and the Falcons have been hot-and-cold at covering them.
Defense/Special teams
Falcons (4.0): The Falcons have at least one interception in each of their last three but have two sacks and one forced fumble in that span. Suffice to say, they've been disappointing and shouldn't fare too well against the Bucs.
Buccaneers (7.0): Given Ryan's track record at Tampa Bay and the track record of DSTs to play the Falcons, the Bucs are a legit Top 10 option this week. Use them in Daily Fantasy for sure.
Broncos at Chargers, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Brock Osweiler (5.2): The reality is that Osweiler's stats will only be as good as his receivers allow. When they have a favorable matchup, Osweiler's numbers should follow. San Diego's secondary particularly struggles when it faces multiple quality receivers on the same team and the Broncos have that. The bigger concern is whether or not the Broncos will just run the ball a ton en route to a victory. He's got some decent upside but doesn't belong among the Top 12 or even 15 quarterbacks this week.
Philip Rivers (6.5): It's become increasingly clear that Rivers can't carry the Chargers offense alone. When the Bolts have an unfavorable matchup like the one they have this week, Rivers' numbers tend to falter. His best games have come against bad defenses -- the Broncos will be one of the toughest he'll face this year.
Running backs
C.J. Anderson (7.3) & Ronnie Hillman (7.0): The Broncos rotate both backs enough to make them basically co-starters. Anderson has run better over the last couple of weeks and figures to be the better Fantasy starter of the two, but the Chargers run defense is so bad that both could get enough work to tally 10-plus Fantasy points.
Danny Woodhead (6.0): This is the perfect game for the Chargers to rediscover Woodhead. Denver's run defense has been really good, so it'll take Woodhead making plays out of the backfield to help the offense move the chains. The Broncos have allowed a touchdown to a running back in three of their last four games. Woodhead also typically plays better at home, but he's been practically invisible over his last two games.
Melvin Gordon (3.9): He's disappointed Fantasy owners all season long -- why bother considering him when he's taking on a run defense allowing less than 3.0 yards per rush over its last five games?
Wide receivers
Demaryius Thomas (7.9): Obvious must-start. HOLD ON TO THE DANG BALL, DEMARYIUS!!
Emmanuel Sanders (7.5): If the Chargers stick cornerback Jason Verrett on Thomas, Sanders will have a big day getting open against the Bolts' other corners. Sanders' speed and potential for a lot of yards after the catch make him appealing as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
Steve Johnson (5.0): Broncos cornerbacks have proven to be tough matchups for receivers all season long. Only one has scored on the Broncos in 2015. One. Johnson is unlikely to make it two, even if he ends up getting five or six catches.
Tight ends
Vernon Davis (4.2) & Owen Daniels (4.0): The matchup is phenomenal for them as a tight end has scored on the Chargers in four of their last five games. Which tight end will it be, though?
Antonio Gates (7.9): The Broncos just got exposed by the Patriots tight ends for two touchdowns and nearly 150 receiving yards. Safety T.J. Ward won't play, which helps Gates' matchup. If anyone on the Bolts has a chance to put up some yards on the Broncos, it's Gates.
Defense/Special teams
Broncos (7.6): Only one of the last six DSTs to play the Chargers posted 10 or more Fantasy points and a defensive touchdown was involved. The Broncos would love to have another one of those, and given the way Rivers is under pressure these days, they might get it.
Chargers (1.8): The only offense to allow the Chargers DST to finish with 10-plus Fantasy points was the Bears in Week 9. The Broncos won't be the next one.
Chiefs at Raiders, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith (5.8): Smith's last three games against the Raiders have been uncommonly good. For him, I mean. At least 200 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in each one. That's not far from the track record of every quarterback to play Oakland this season -- eight of 11 have at least 200 yards and two touchdowns against them, and nine quarterbacks total have at least 20 Fantasy points. Smith is a sneaky good starter, especially if the Raiders put points on the board and force the Chiefs to throw a little more than they'd like.
Derek Carr (8.2): Carr could have a great game if pass rusher Justin Houston is sidelined. But if Houston gets over his hyperextended knee and plays then Carr could be in a little bit of trouble. Tyrod Taylor was the first quarterback in six games to tally over 20 Fantasy points against the Chiefs, and it's no coincidence that it happened in a game Houston got hurt in. Carr can still find 20 Fantasy points with Houston on the field but he's not a lock to get much more than that.
Running backs
Charcandrick West (7.5) & Spencer Ware (4.3): West has practiced full-go this week and appears ready to return following a hamstring injury. While Ware did absolutely nothing wrong playing in place of West, the hunch is that West regains a pretty good chunk of his role. Andy Reid typically has been a one-running back kind of coach but for this week we could see West eased in to around 15 or so touches with Ware picking up the rest. West should play a lot of passing downs, and there could be a lot of passing for the Chiefs in this game.
Latavius Murray (5.6): His last four weeks have netted under 10 Fantasy points each in standard formats. That's bad. But his offensive line might get center Rodney Hudson back and the Chiefs have allowed two of three running backs to get 10-plus Fantasy points since their bye. Murray doesn't have a lot of upside but he is good enough to figure as a borderline No. 2/flex Fantasy choice.
Wide receivers
Jeremy Maclin (5.7): A monster outing last week against Buffalo opened a lot of people's eyes since Maclin had been written off as an afterthought in the Chiefs offense. But in three games since getting thrashed at Pittsburgh the Raiders have held every receiver they've faced to under 10 Fantasy points, a group that includes Calvin Johnson. Maclin is a good bet for six catches and 80 yards.
Amari Cooper (7.6) & Michael Crabtree (6.4): A lot of moving parts to this matchup. If Carr doesn't feel much of a pass rush then he'll throw at will and both Cooper and Crabtree will fare well. If he does feel pressure then the numbers for the receivers will drop off. Justin Houston's status matters, as does Raiders center Rodney Hudson's. It's worth noting that most of the touchdowns scored on the Chiefs have come from non-No. 1 receivers. That might bode well for Crabtree.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce (7.4): Another week, another non-No. 1 tight end scores on the Raiders. The Chiefs' second tight end is Demetrius Harris, so get him ready in your TD-only leagues. Or maybe Kelce can come through with a touchdown and some nice yardage, just as he did last week.
Defense/Special teams
Chiefs (6.8): If Justin Houston plays, the Chiefs DST is a must-start. If he's out then they're still a good start but not a great one. Only two of the last six DSTs to play the Raiders have finished with double-digit Fantasy points.
Raiders (3.1): Five straight rivals to play the Chiefs have posted four Fantasy points or less! Four!! The Raiders should be far from lineups.
Eagles at Patriots, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford (4.0): Did you know Bradford has only two games this season with 20-plus Fantasy points? Did you know four of the last five passers to play the Patriots have posted below 20 Fantasy points? Did you know you'd be insane to start Bradford this week?
Tom Brady (8.1): Obvious must-start.
Running backs
DeMarco Murray (5.5): The Patriots run defense tends to play better at home than on the road, but it's not like they're impossible to run on. In fact half of their total touchdowns allowed to running backs have come at Foxboro. The more concerning issue is Murray's lack of touches -- less than 20 in consecutive games with a nauseating rushing average to go with it. Murray doesn't have huge upside and the Patriots probably have a good beat on what the Eagles offense looks like. There's pessimism.
LeGarrette Blount (7.7): The Eagles run defense went from sharp to slump in a hurry, giving up 11-plus Fantasy points to eight running backs over its last five games. The Patriots haven't used Blount in a while, namely because the matchups and game flow haven't dictated it. This week should be different and Blount should capitalize.
Wide receivers
Jordan Matthews (4.1): The garbage-time touchdown last week gave Matthews only his second double-digit outing in his last nine. The Patriots secondary should be able to contain him, making him a low-upside receiver not worth taking the chance on, even with Bradford back.
Danny Amendola (7.1): Provided he practices all week, Amendola should garner lots of targets from Brady now that he's lost Gronkowski for the time being. A typical slot-receiver game for the Patriots usually means at least 10 Fantasy points in a standard league and 18 in a PPR. That's where the expectations should be.
Brandon LaFell (7.0): We've seen outside receivers pulverize the Eagles secondary this season. LaFell won't be as effective as Calvin Johnson was last week, but the timing's right for him to pick up some extra targets with Gronkowski not playing. He's worth trusting as a No. 2 receiver this week.
Tight ends
Scott Chandler (6.6): Chandler's not Gronk, so don't expect him to be. However, he's not a total scrub either as he offers Brady big size and a catching radius to match. He should see a good amount of targets (nine? 10?) to help pace him. The Eagles have been great against tight ends but haven't really faced a lot of tough ones. Chandler's a great replacement for Gronk or Jimmy Graham.
Defense/Special teams
Eagles (3.4): Every DST to play the Patriots has posted 10 or fewer Fantasy points, and nine have posted seven or fewer points. The Buccaneers and the Bears are easy choices to take over the Eagles this week.
Patriots (7.4): Three straight teams have kept the Eagles to under 20 points and have recorded 10-plus Fantasy points. The Patriots should be next up.
Panthers at Saints, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton (9.4): Obvious must-start.
Drew Brees (6.3): These are the kind of games where Brees plays much better than expected, but it's tough to see happening this time around. For starters, the Panthers have let just two quarterbacks get more than 20 Fantasy points against them this season. And Brees' best games have come against disappointing defenses. The only thing going for him is that he's at home, which tends to give him an edge. But with him having at least one interception in five straight games and a Panthers secondary which should easily take away top target Brandin Cooks, and with No. 2 receiver Willie Snead nursing some injuries, this could be an ugly game for Brees.
Running backs
Jonathan Stewart (9.5): Obvious must-start.
Mark Ingram (6.8): Something's up with Ingram. He hasn't scored in four games and has nine Fantasy points in each of his last three (12 to 15 in PPR). His touches have been particularly limited in his last two -- no more than 15. Making matters worse is a Panthers run defense allowing 2.7 yards per rush to backs in its last five games. Ingram is safer as a low-end No. 2 running back.
Wide receivers
Devin Funchess (5.4): The matchup is sweet as honey as the Saints have allowed at least one touchdown to a receiver in eight straight. Funchess hasn't gone consecutive games without a touchdown since Weeks 7 and 8, plus he's been getting more snaps with the starting offense. He's worth taking a swing on if you're thin at receiver, especially as a No. 3 option.
Brandin Cooks (5.3): Cooks figures to get covered by cornerback Josh Norman, which basically ends the discussion of whether or not it's a good idea to start him. Norman hasn't allowed a touchdown in 10 straight games.
Willie Snead (4.4): There could be some opportunities for Snead to beat his coverage seeing how the Panthers are getting a little thin at defensive back. But with a calf injury plaguing him, there's no guarantee he'll have much juice to do anything with the ball after catching it. He's a risky start.
Tight ends
Greg Olsen (9.2): Obvious must-start.
Benjamin Watson (3.8): Watson has to play a bigger role in the Saints offense for them to have a chance. The problem is that the Panthers have become better at covering the position and Watson's work has regressed. You'd be taking a chance by starting Watson.
Defense/Special teams
Panthers (8.2): Remember when it used to be DST trouble to start a unit playing at New Orleans? Now it's not so bad. The Panthers should remain in lineups against a turnover-prone Saints offense.
Saints (2.0): New defensive playcaller, same crummy defense. Stay away from them, especially against the Panthers.
Colts at Steelers, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck (5.6): Clearly there are holes in the Steelers secondary after Derek Carr and Russell Wilson combined for nine touchdowns in Weeks 9 and 12. The Steelers have also given up over 300 pass yards in three straight games, and coach Mike Tomlin apparently isn't making any personnel changes. Hasselbeck's a sneaky sleeper for the week, especially with the Colts run game stuck in a ditch.
Ben Roethlisberger (9.2): There's still trepidation in starting Roethlisberger, but there shouldn't be. At home against these Colts last year he threw six touchdown passes, and the Colts defense might be worse now! Seven of the last 10 quarterbacks to play them have posted at least two touchdowns and on the year the Colts are giving up 282.9 pass yards per game.
Running backs
Frank Gore (4.6): There are two things you should do if you own Gore in your leagues: One is bench him -- the Steelers have allowed just one of the last four rushers they've faced to get 10-plus Fantasy points and Gore hasn't had 10-plus since Week 9. The second is pick up Dan Herron as the handcuff to Gore since it's conceivable Gore is breaking down after taking on 208 touches through 11 games.
DeAngelo Williams (9.4): Obvious must-start.
Wide receivers
T.Y. Hilton (8.6): After watching the Seahawks crush the Steelers, there's no reasonable argument to sit Hilton. You might look at his game log and say he's touchdown dependent, but so what? The Steelers have given up eight touchdowns to wideouts over their last three games!
Donte Moncrief (6.5): The difference between Moncrief's last two games? The matchup -- against Atlanta he couldn't do much with a lot of targets but against the Bucs he came through for 114 yards. The Steelers offer an equally juicy matchup and it seems like Hasselbeck has learned to lean on Moncrief. He's a very good No. 3 or flex candidate.
Antonio Brown (9.6): Obvious must-start.
Martavis Bryant (8.2): At this point Bryant is matchup-proof. If the Colts opt to stick Vontae Davis on Brown then it means Greg Toler will be assigned Bryant. That's a matchup Roethlisberger will take all day long. Bryant should improve on his Week 12 numbers.
Tight ends
Coby Fleener (3.6): After scoring four Fantasy points or less in three straight games, Fantasy owners are just about done with Fleener. That's even the case with the Steelers allowing at least six Fantasy points to tight ends in three straight.
Defense/Special teams
Colts (3.6): Pittsburgh has put up at least 30 points in three straight games. The Colts have allowed 23.6 points per game but that number figures to go up after this week.
Steelers (4.6): Two of the last three DSTs to play the Colts have posted below 10 Fantasy points, mainly because the Colts aren't turning the ball over like they were earlier this year. Given the Steelers' secondary shortcomings, they're not a great start against the Colts in what should be a relatively high-scoring game.
Cowboys at Redskins, Mon., 8:30 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Matt Cassel (4.5): So look, Cassel did well in an easy matchup earlier this year (vs. Philly), and he has another one this week. Eight of the last nine quarterbacks to play the Redskins have thrown two touchdowns and six of them had 21-plus Fantasy points. This is a meeting of a mediocre quarterback and a mediocre defense -- there's no way anyone should have confidence in Cassel as a standard Fantasy choice.
Kirk Cousins (5.5): Cousins' last four home games have resulted in 23-plus Fantasy points. But this one's different -- this one's actually against a tough defense. The Cowboys' combination of pass rushers and defensive backs make this a tough matchup for Cousins. Six straight quarterbacks, including Eli Manning and Cam Newton, failed to get more than 18 points against the Cowboys. There are safer options.
Running backs
Darren McFadden (8.5): Two of McFadden's last three games have been ugly (less than 60 total yards), but matchups and game flow came into play in both cases. This week his outlook is improved -- the Redskins have allowed at least nine Fantasy points to six of the last seven running backs they've faced. McFadden should be good for 120 total yards and double digit Fantasy points.
Alfred Morris (5.3) & Matt Jones (5.2): The Cowboys' run defense isn't that great -- that's not the debate. The debate is how carries will shake out between these two. Morris played 61 percent of the snaps last week and dominated touches whereas Jones played in a complementary role (a quarter of the snaps). If the Redskins build a lead like they did last week then expect something similar. Morris is the safer pick of the two but neither are reliable starters.
Wide receivers
Dez Bryant (7.7): You'd think the Cowboys would order up a ton of targets in Dez's direction but he's only had one game with 10-plus targets and it happened to be one of his worst on the season (45 yards on five catches against the Bucs). It's nice that Bryant had his best game of the year with Cassel, and this matchup is ridiculously favorable, so there's optimism even though Romo's not under center.
DeSean Jackson (6.3): You can't help but notice that Jackson has a touchdown in consecutive games, both on deep tosses from Cousins. Those two plays have accounted for 74 percent of his Fantasy point production this season! Can he strike deep against Dallas? It's possible -- after struggling for years against the Cowboys he had two games with at least 13 Fantasy points against them in 2014. Dallas is definitely going to try and account for Jackson on every play, plus it's allowed just six scores to receivers all season. Also, Jackson hasn't scored in three straight games since 2010. Keep expectations modest.
Tight ends
Jason Witten (3.0): Witten's numbers continue to stink (four Fantasy points or less in standard leagues over each of his last five). Losing Romo as his quarterback won't help either. Why he is still owned in 88 percent of CBSSports.com leagues is beyond me.
Jordan Reed (5.9): Most folks will start Reed but the matchup isn't exactly a piece of cake. The last two tight ends to play the Cowboys had 7 or 8 Fantasy points and only one tight end has had more than that all season long. And they've played some great tight ends, including Gronk, Graham and Olsen. Reed has never scored and posted 70 yards or less in three career games against the Cowboys.
Defense/Special teams
Cowboys (6.0): The Cowboys have posted back-to-back monster games on the road and find themselves at Washington on Monday night. Last season the Cowboys held the Redskins to 20 points or less and could deliver similarly. They're not a bad choice this week.
Redskins (6.2): Don't look now but Washington's DST has come alive over the last three weeks, posting at least 10 Fantasy points per game against some really good offenses. Dallas' offense is pretty good but with Cassel under center there's definitely a chance at picking up some turnovers and keeping the Cowboys to under 21 points. They're a sneaky starting option this week.
Packers at Lions, Thu., 8:25 p.m. ET
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (8.3): Obvious must-start, even with the Lions remarkable defensive turnaround.
Matthew Stafford (8.4): Stafford has had 20-plus Fantasy points in four straight at home and came up eight passing yards shy of 20 points against the Packers in Green Bay two weeks ago. He historically has posted great numbers against the Packers the second time he sees them in a season.
Running backs
Eddie Lacy (6.9): Since their bye the Lions have allowed just 2.6 yards per carry and one touchdown to running backs. Lacy ran well last week but that was against a tired Bears defense on a short week. The Lions should do a better job of containing Lacy and keeping him under 100 total yards.
Theo Riddick (5.0) & Ameer Abdullah (4.9): Riddick's touchdown made him the better Fantasy rusher last week. This week it could be his receiving skills that place him over Abdullah. The Packers have allowed a touchdown to a back in each of their last two, but they've still held the likes of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Langford and Matt Forte to 10 Fantasy points or less in those games. Neither Lions running back will be fun to start.
Wide receivers
Randall Cobb (6.6): Cobb is the only sure thing in the Packers passing game, but that doesn't make him a great Fantasy choice. It just means he'll play a lot. The targets have been there for him, particularly in road games, and his up-and-down track record against the Lions hints that he could have a big game after getting just 53 yards back in Week 10. He's a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver with upside that everyone knows about.
James Jones (4.9) & Davante Adams (4.7): You shouldn't feel confident starting either one of these guys -- one is slow and touchdown dependent, the other has botched his opportunity to emerge for the Packers despite a slew of targets. If you assume the Packers coaches are as tired of seeing Adams struggle as we are, Jones figures to see more targets head his way while Adams sees significantly less, if not get benched for someone like Jeff Janis.
Calvin Johnson (9.0): Obvious must-start.
Golden Tate (3.8): The touchdown last week was nice, but it's rare to see him and Megatron play well in the same game. No one should feel good starting Tate.
Tight ends
Richard Rodgers (6.0): The Packers had success attacking with their tight ends against the Lions in Week 10. Actually, everybody has except for three of the Lions' opponents. Bank on Rodgers scoring and thus helping your Fantasy team out.
Eric Ebron (3.2): Yeah, the Packers have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four straight games. So what? Ebron's been a bad Fantasy choice since he hurt his knee and he's been losing snaps week by week. Guys like Scott Chandler, Richard Rodgers and others are better.
Defense/Special teams
Packers (4.2): Only one opponent since Green Bay's Week 7 bye has allowed it the chance to get 10-plus Fantasy points, and it wasn't the Lions in Week 10. In fact, the Lions have held three straight DSTs to eight Fantasy points or less. Save for the six-sack effort at Minnesota, the Packers pass rush has all but vanished.
Lions (4.4): Back in Week 10 the Lions held the Packers to 16 points and still managed to post only seven Fantasy points. No one should confidently start the Lions DST, even if they've played better since that game.
