After six months of regular-season baseball, with an extra day for that wild Mets-Braves doubleheader, the 2024 MLB playoffs are upon us. As we get set to watch more baseball than is probably healthy for the next month, it's time to take a deeper look at the playoff teams.
Specifically, let's rank the pitching staffs of the 12 playoff teams.
Now, due to the format, how easily a team can face elimination and several other factors, what matters most about a pitching staff in the playoffs is different than the regular season. The playoff rotations really only require four starters and maybe even three for the shorter series. There's a bigger premium on aces, especially if they can come back on short rest. The bullpen depth doesn't matter nearly as much as having a small handful of shutdown arms.
Basically, yes, a team still needs a full pitching staff, but things are weighted toward four-man rotations -- especially with multiple frontline starters -- and 3-4 stud bullpen arms. If a team isn't deep but has those things, I'd much rather take that than a collection of 12 good-but-not-great arms. Keep that in mind as we move into these rankings.
1. Cleveland Guardians
The best bullpen in baseball resides here and there isn't a close second. Emmanuel Clase rightfully gets most of the attention but the likes of Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, Tim Herrin and Nick Sandlin could become household names this month. Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd and Joey Cantillo -- along with either Gavin Williams, Alex Cobb or Ben Lively -- certainly don't sound like a rotation of aces, but several have been pretty good this past month or so. Generally speaking, a strong bullpen and weak rotation doesn't sound like a great combination for a deep playoff run, but the Guardians might have enough great relievers to make it work without wearing them down. They pulled it off in the regular season. In fact, the entire staff had a 2.19 ERA in the season's final month. That'll do.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
A lot of this hinges on what versions of Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez we see. Nola has been very inconsistent all season and Suárez has been awful down the stretch. If they both perform as their best selves, that's an amazing rotation along with Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez. A handful of power arms awaits in the bullpen, too, with Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm helping to form a sturdy bridge for closer Carlos Estévez. This group could well be the best in baseball this coming month, but questions must be answered.
3. San Diego Padres
Is Robert Suarez OK? It's a big question and a big deal. The Padres' closer had a 5.66 ERA in his last 21 outings, allowing at least one run nine different times. He finished with three straight save conversions, though, so perhaps he'll be OK for the next month. If so, he teams with Jason Adam and Tanner Scott to form a deadly back-end trio. The playoff rotation of Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King is very high-upside as well. The Padres might not have exceptional depth here with high-end talent, but in the playoffs that might not matter. I'm bullish on this group for the next month.
4. New York Yankees
Just about a month ago, the Yankees had major concerns. We could even call them problems. Luke Weaver at the back end of the bullpen has really helped alleviate the issues relating to relievers. The situation with the rotation has been greatly helped by the returns of Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, too. Gerrit Cole has looked like his old self, save for one terrible outing, in the last two months. Carlos Rodón has been great in the last month, too. It would be stupid to proclaim everything is fixed, but things have really settled down here. The Yankees appear to be in good shape as they await an opponent in the ALDS. The loss of Nestor Cortes really hurts, though.
5. Atlanta Braves
Only the Guardians had a better ERA in September than the Braves. They'll only need four starters in the playoffs and that will certainly include Max Fried and Reynaldo López. Perhaps it's Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach to round things out with Chris Sale's back spasms having compromised him. AJ Smith-Shawver gets the Game 1 start for the Wild Card Series but he's been in Triple-A for almost the entire year. It's a tough situation. This has to affect their ranking -- I had them third before Monday -- even though they have a great pitching staff.
6. New York Mets
They are a bit more compromised than other playoff teams due to the doubleheader on Monday. The names in the rotation don't scream "ace," but they've actually been a very solid bunch down the stretch. In fact, the Mets pitchers lead the majors in collective WAR in the final month. Sean Manaea, José Quintana, Luis Severino and David Peterson have all flashed frontline upside at times these final few months. Even Tylor Megill has been very good, though he hasn't racked up the innings. Anchoring the bullpen, Edwin Díaz has been looking like his old self and several of the setup men are throwing well.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
The bullpen has been good all season, but it really settled into dominance in these last few weeks. All-Star closer Devin Williams is the big name but the likes of Joel Payamps, Trevor Megill and Aaron Ashby have been amazing. The playoff rotation looks like Freddy Peralta, Tobias Meyers, Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas. That's adequate. They could be great, but there's also potential for someone to have a meltdown in there. None of them are workhorse types that would take pressure off the bullpen, either.
8. Kansas City Royals
The bullpen is a question mark, though Lucas Erceg can look unhittable at times. That rotation, though, could be amazing for a month. We've seen Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo pitch like aces for extended stretches while Michael Wacha, Brady Singer and Michael Lorenzen are all very capable of looking great in spurts. One of Singer or Lorenzen can move to the bullpen for the playoffs and maybe that would help shore things up. Regardless, the Royals' rotation should be a strength for however long they last.
9. Detroit Tigers
You cannot sing the praises for A.J. Hinch enough in terms of how masterfully he's worked the pitching staff down the stretch here in the Tigers' surprising playoff run. Sure, there's AL Cy Young winner candidate Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation, but otherwise the Tigers have been piecing everything together. They did so to the tune of a 2.79 staff ERA in September, trailing only the Guardians, Braves and Rays. Can you win playoff games with openers and bullpen games? It might work. It might not. That Tigers bullpen is great, though. And top prospect Jackson Jobe totally looks like a playoff X-factor. This will be fun to watch.
10. Houston Astros
Justin Verlander's last outing was encouraging, but not enough to force his way into the playoff rotation. The Astros' top three is very good with Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco, assuming Blanco holds up. He's gone so far over his previous workloads that it's hard to tell if he's gonna hit a wall at some point or not. The back of the bullpen sounds amazing with Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly. We could even throw Bryan Abreu in there. But that trio has not been nearly as dominant as everyone would've predicted heading into the season and Hader has a major issue with the long ball (12 home runs allowed in 71 innings). Perhaps the inverse of the Brewers and Guardians, the Astros' pitching staff isn't actually as good as it looks on paper, even if it is very good.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
Injuries have befallen the Dodgers' pitchers all season. Several weeks ago, it looked like trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty was the only sure thing in the rotation. Things have gotten a bit better now. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is back and there have been moderately encouraging signs from Walker Buehler. The Dodgers are still void of an ace and the situation remains tenuous, but it's improved. Part of the good news is the bullpen has started to look pretty stout in big spots, notably in the series win over the Padres to clinch the NL West.
Still, the staff had a 4.58 ERA in September. That's a tad bit worrisome heading to October.
Overall, I'd say the Dodgers have better pitchers than "ranked as the 11th-best playoff pitching staff" looks, but most playoff teams have outstanding pitching. Right now, the Dodgers don't.
12. Baltimore Orioles
The good news here is Corbin Burnes, after a lull to start the second half, got back to looking like his ace self in the final month of the season. Also, Zach Eflin has been very good since the Orioles acquired him. That's a nice 1-2 punch in the playoff rotation and could well be what helps propel them to their first playoff series victory in a decade. The bad news is everything else is a question mark. Cade Povich and Dean Kremer have been pretty good lately, so that helps. The bullpen is terrible, though. They had an ERA of over 5 in the final month of the season.