Four things that need to happen for Rays to overcome 2-0 World Series deficit vs. Brewers

They have been two edge-of-your-seat wins, but the Milwaukee Brewers are up 2-0 over the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series, and they're two wins away from the first championship in franchise history. Historically, teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 83% of the time. The Brewers are in the driver's seat, but they know the job is not done, or even close to it.

"Their team is good." Brewers manager Pat Murphy said after Game 2. "They're the best team in the American League and I'm well aware of it. I think we had a lot of things go our way, and I realize that. I respect Tampa, and we've got a long way to go."

The series now shifts to Tropicana Field and the Rays will try to erase the 2-0 deficit, something that hasn't been done in the World Series in 30 years. Good news, though: You only need to look back to last season for the last time a team came back from down 2-0 in a best-of-seven. It is rare, but it is hardly unprecedented, and these Rays are plenty capable of it.

In 95 tries, 16 teams have come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. Six of the 16 occurred before 1980, and three occurred in 1985 alone. Here are the six 2-0 comebacks in the last 40 years:

The last two 2-0 comebacks in the World Series came in the sixth year of the decade. A good omen for the Rays? They'd better hope so. Tampa needs all the help it can get to beat the Brewers four times in the next five games. Note that those 2004 Red Sox are, of course, the only team in history to erase a 3-0 series deficit. 

A Game 3 win is an absolute must for the Rays.

The Brewers last lost four times in five games from Aug. 10-14 during a West Coast trip through San Diego and Chavez Ravine. They lost four times in five games from July 8-12 as well, also on the road. That was a trip through St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Brewers had six- and four-game losing streaks in April. A Rays comeback is improbable, not impossible.

Here now is what needs to happen for the Rays to make that improbable comeback and win the World Series.

1. Clean up the sloppy play

The Rays are usually the team that forces their opponent into sloppy play, and to be sure, the Brewers have played far from clean in the World Series. David Hamilton got thrown out at third trying to stretch a double into a triple in Game 1. Cooper Pratt spiked a throw to begin Game 1, which opened the door for Tampa's four-run inning. It hasn't been a crisp two games.

The Rays, though, have shot themselves in the foot over and over again. Most egregiously, Jonathan Aranda dropped a foul popup in the first inning of Game 1, giving William Contreras new life. Contreras then singled as part of the two-run inning. Later in the game, Aranda let a ground ball get through his legs, Bill Buckner style. That led to Milwaukee's third run of the game.

There have been other mistakes throughout the World Series and the Rays simply can not give the Brewers extra outs, an extra 90 feet, and extra baserunners. The Brewers have made the Rays pay for their mistakes time and time again. It's baseball; mistakes happen, but Tampa will need to at least limit them moving forward, or ideally eliminate them entirely.  

"We didn't play our cleanest baseball game by any stretch," Rays manager Kevin Cash said after Game 2. "We pride ourselves on doing everything we can to support the pitchers and making plays behind them. Today was probably not our best day." 

The Rays are making too many mistakes to stand a chance against the relentless Brewers

Matt Snyder

2. Get a great start from Freddy Peralta

Those 2-0 comebacks listed above have one thing in common: The starting pitcher was great in Game 3. Last year, Shane Bieber allowed two runs in six innings to spark Toronto's comeback. In 2023, Brandon Pfaadt fired 5 ⅔ shutout innings for the D-backs. In the 1996 World Series, it was David Cone for the Yankees. In the 1986 World Series, it was Bob Ojeda for the Mets.

Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP and a former Brewer, will be charged with giving the Rays that great start in Game 3. He's been sensational this postseason, allowing just two runs in 16 ⅔ innings across three starts and one relief appearance. He's been great with the Rays in general. Since Aug. 26, Peralta, acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline, has a 0.88 ERA in nine starts, one relief appearance, and 50 ⅔ innings.

Freddy Peralta

TB • SP • #51

ERA4.42

WHIP1.33

IP169

BB63

K156

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"I give Freddy a lot of credit for being a good pitcher and being vulnerable enough to say, 'I wasn't comfortable doing some things and I want to get back to my strengths,'" Cash said prior to the World Series. "He guided that through the entire two months he's been with us, and he took off in September and has continued to take off in October."

If the Rays are going to make this a series, it has to start with Peralta. He must pitch well and also pitch deep into Game 3, because the middle of Tampa's bullpen is sketchy. Two games into the series, it feels like the Rays simply do not have enough arms to beat the Brewers. 

One game at a time, though. Peralta will start Game 3 and must pitch well to make a comeback possible.

3. Enjoy some home cooking

Most teams are better at home than on the road and there are a million reasons for that. The roster is tailored to their home ballpark. The players have better equipment and facilities available to them (the Trajekt hitting machine doesn't travel, for instance). They get to sleep in their own beds. They have their fans behind them. On and on we can go.

The Rays are no different. At 55-26, they tied the Brewers (who else?) for baseball's best home record during the regular season. The Rays are uniquely built for Tropicana Field's bouncy turf. The turf plays very fast, so Tampa's hitters, by and large, put the ball on the ground and run like crazy. That is their home-field advantage. They use the turf expertly.

Now, the flip side to this is that the Brewers had baseball's second-best road record during the regular season. They went 48-33 away from American Family Field, one game worse than the Dodgers and their MLB-best 49-32 road mark. If there is a team that won't cower at the Trop, it is these Brewers.

The run differential tells the story. The Brewers are a juggernaut at home and merely very good on the road. They're a great team, no matter where they play, really. The Rays can take solace in the fact that the series now moves to Tampa and they will get to play Games 3, 4, and, if necessary, 5 on their literal home turf. If they're going to make a comeback, it starts at home.

"I know our fans are going to be really loud and excited to see us come back and kind of reset ourselves a little bit," Cash said after Game 2. "We've got a really good pitcher going, as do they. A lot of confidence in this club to respond. They've done it all season long, and they'll continue to do it."

4. Get a little lucky

With their backs up against the wall, the Rays need every little break. A borderline pitch in a big spot (and the ABS challenge!) going their way. A bloop off the end of the bat landing just fair (or foul). A good defender booting a play. Something like that. 

It is better to be lucky than good, but to beat the Brewers four times in the next five games, the Rays will need to be lucky and good.