Alex Bregman to the Diamondbacks? Assessing the star free agent's fit and the Ketel Marte factor

Six weeks into the 2025-26 MLB offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks have crossed the No. 1 item off their to-do list: improve the rotation. The D-backs imported Michael Soroka and brought back Merrill Kelly to strengthen a rotation that will not have Corbin Burnes to begin 2026 as he completes his Tommy John surgery rehab. Kelly and Soroka will join holdovers Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez in the starting five. Yilber Díaz and Cristian Mena loom as depth options.

"We're in both (the trade and free agent) markets now," GM Mike Hazen told reporters, including MLB.com, when asked what his team's next move would be after signing Soroka. "So it could come in either one of those."

Hazen & Co. must upgrade a bullpen that ranked among MLB's worst in 2025 (28th in WAR), and they must also sort out their infield. All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte has been in trade rumors the last few weeks, plus third base is unsettled. Perhaps it is not surprising then that, on Tuesday, the D-backs reportedly entered the Alex Bregman race.

Arizona has a history of making big moves seemingly out of nowhere. It was a surprise when they signed Burnes last offseason. The Madison Bumgarner signing snuck up on everyone. Go back a ways and the Zack Greinke signing was a shocker. The D-backs have shown that, when there's a big free agent they want, they'll dip deep into their pockets to get him. 

Bregman, 31, would certainly solve the club's third base problem, which has existed since Eugenio Suárez was traded away at the 2025 deadline. Also, like many ballplayers, Bregman makes his home in the Phoenix area, so the D-backs offer a chance to live at home year-round. It's an advantage unique to the D-backs and it has helped them land countless free agents over the years.

We ranked Bregman as the second-best free agent available this offseason, behind only outfielder Kyle Tucker. Here's the write-up:

Bregman, one of the last notable free agents to sign last winter, showed no ill effects of being left in the cold. He kept alive his streak of having never finished worse than 15% above the league-average hitter, and for the first time in his career, he joined the 90-90 club -- that is, a 90% in-zone contact rate and a 90 mph average exit velocity. Bregman can still pick it at third base, too. It's fair to wonder how his pull-happy slugging would play in a less favorable home offensive environment than the ones he's haunted to date, but he's a good player who ought to land a better contract than three years and $120 million this go around.

The Boston Red Sox, his most recent team, and the New York Mets have been most connected to Bregman this offseason. The Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, and Philadelphia Phillies have all been either speculated as potential landing spots for Bregman, or loosely connected to him. As a Scott Boras client, there's always a chance a Mystery Team™ emerges at some point.

Arizona went 80-82 in 2025, though they finished the season well, winning 29 of their final 52 games. Will they challenge the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title in 2026? Eh, probably not, but the D-backs have enough talent to make a run at a wild card berth next season. Bregman could be the piece that puts them over the line.

With the D-backs now reportedly in the hunt for Bregman, let's break down the fit and make sense of it all.

Would signing Bregman make sense?

With any hot stove rumor, ask whether it passes the sniff test. There's a lot of noise out there, much of it planted by agents/teams to put pressure on the other side. It's good practice to ask yourself "does this rumor make sense?" before firing off a take.  

In this case, yes, the D-backs having interest in Bregman passes the sniff test. They have a glaring need at the hot corner. They have a history of coming out of nowhere to spend on top free agents, including on Boras clients (i.e. Burnes). The D-backs can also plausibly call themselves a contender, which figures to appeal to Bregman, who would also get to live at home full-time.

Going a little further, Bregman would give the D-backs a legitimate middle of the order righty bat, something they need to balance the lineup. He'd also improve an infield defense that ranked 17th with minus-6 outs above average in 2025. On the field and off the field, yes, this one makes sense. Not hard to understand how Bregman fits the D-backs and vice versa.

What would Bregman mean for Marte?

Soon after the Bregman/D-backs rumor surfaced, The Athletic reported Arizona signing Bregman "likely would be possible only if the Diamondbacks first trade second baseman Ketel Marte." That is almost certainty due to financial reasons, not baseball reasons. Here is the club's payroll situation, via Cot's Baseball Contracts:

The D-backs are unlikely to cross the $244 million CBT threshold in 2026, so the more important number is the team's actual payroll, that $176.4 million in 2025. Arizona currently has $163.8 million on the books for 2026, including arbitration projections. If they keep payroll in the $177 million range again, then they only have about $14 million left to spend this winter.

That, obviously, won't be enough to cover Bregman. Even backloading the contract would help only so much because the D-backs do not have any significant contracts coming off the books next offseason. Marte is owed $15 million in 2026. Trading him would clear money to fit Bregman into the team's budget, and also bring back an awful lot of young talent to further help the roster.

There are other factors to consider too. Marte will pick up 10-and-5 rights 11 days into the 2026 season, meaning that, as a player with 10 years of service time, including the last five with the same team, he will have full no-trade protection. This offseason is Arizona's last chance to trade Marte without him having the ability to block a deal. Trading him will be much harder come April.

(The Athletics, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals are on Marte's five-team no-trade list this offseason, according to The Athletic.)

Also, we shouldn't ignore that Marte has reportedly rankled some teammates by taking days off, including leaving the team for a few days after his home was burglarized. On one hand, come on, be reasonable. The guy's home was broken into! On the other hand, this stuff is typically handled in-house. The fact it became public indicates this issue has been brewing for some time.

The best version of the 2026 D-backs has Marte at second base and Bregman at third, not one or the other. It may not be possible financially though, and trading Marte before his 10-and-5 rights kick in would open up payroll and bring back talent. And, if there really is an issue in the clubhouse, trading Marte could help clear that up. Marte's situation seems tied directly to Bregman.

What would Bregman mean for Lawlar?

Jordan Lawlar, Arizona's erstwhile top prospect, is currently in line to start at third base, though he would not necessarily become blocked by Bregman. Lawlar also has experience at second base, and he even played some center field in winter ball. There will be ways to get him in the lineup with or without Bregman, and even if the D-backs sign Bregman and keep Marte.

There's also this: Lawlar has not impressed in his limited MLB action. The 23-year-old is a career .165/.241/.237 hitter with a scary 34.3% strikeout rate in the show. It's telling that Lawlar started only four of the team's final 22 games at third base in 2025. At a time when the D-Backs could have (should have?) given their former top prospect everyday at-bats, they didn't.

How teams use their players tells you a lot and the D-backs told us late this past season that they don't think Lawlar's ready to be an everyday big leaguer, or even ready for an extended audition. So, frankly, Lawlar should have no bearing on the decision to sign Bregman or trade Marte. He hasn't played well enough (or stayed healthy enough) to force his way into the lineup.

Would Bregman be enough?

Here's the thing about the sign Bregman/trade Marte gambit: Marte's the better player. They're roughly the same age (Marte is six months older) and Marte's been the better player the last few years, and he projects to be the better player in 2026. Here's the quick and dirty head-to-head WAR comparison:

Marte has outperformed Bregman and his contract is a bargain: $102.5 million over the next six years. Bregman is a free agent because he opted out of the final two years and $80 million remaining on his contract with the Red Sox. You're not getting him for $102.5 million over six years. Marte's the better and more affordable player. Likely significantly more affordable.

In terms of a straight 1 for 1 swap, signing Bregman and trading Marte would make the D-backs worse. It's not quite that simple though. We would also have to factor in whatever Arizona gets in the Marte trade, which could be considerable. A star player, even one in his 30s, on a bargain contract is incredibly valuable. Marte's going to fetch a haul if/when the D-backs move him.

How much the clubhouse issues factor into this is unknownable. Does an ostensibly happier clubhouse without Marte make up for the on-field difference between Bregman and Marte? It might, but there's just no way we can say that with any certainty. I will say again that the Marte stuff becoming public indicates this isn't a small nuisance. It's a legitimate clubhouse issue.

FanGraphs projections are down on the D-backs. They have them as the 19th-best roster going into 2026 at the moment, with the obvious caveat that there is still a lot of offseason to go. With or without Bregman, I have to assume the D-backs will do something to upgrade their bullpen. Going from the 2025 bullpen to even an average bullpen in 2026 would qualify as a big improvement.

On the surface, no, signing Bregman may not be enough to vault the D-backs into no-doubt contender status if it is paired with a Marte trade. Really though, this will come down to what they get in that Marte trade. They will have to thread the needle a bit, but coming out ahead after signing Bregman and trading Marte is doable for Hazen and the D-backs.