The wildly successful 2017 season for the Arizona Diamondbacks came to a disappointing halt in the NLDS with a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers. For a bit, it'll be a tough pill for the D-Backs faithful to swallow, but in the end they will look back at this season with great happiness.
For the front office, though, the task now is to make sure that the surprise contention turns into annual contention. There's a very talented group here, but they can't just sit on their hands. Let's take a look.
The J.D. question
After being acquired on the cheap in a trade, J.D. Martinez was an absolute destroyer of worlds for the Diamondbacks. In just 62 regular-season games, he hit .302/.366/.741 with 29 homers (a full season pace of 76 home runs, by the way).
Now, Martinez hits free agency and figures to have a ton of interest. He's also 30 years old and, let's face it, all of his value lies in the power. If that starts to fade by, say, age 33, is it worth going nuts on a long-term deal for Martinez? It's easy to be emotional from the Diamondbacks fan perspective, but look at this situation pragmatically. He's not going to hit 76 home runs in a season. What we just saw was very likely the absolute peak of Martinez's career.
Then again, without Martinez it's back to Yasmany Tomas or a collection of replacement-level guys like Jeremy Hazelbaker.
It feels like they should pursue Martinez but do so with caution. If talks start to get up into the five-year range, that seems worrisome. This is one of the biggest offseason storylines for Arizona's capable front office.
The bullpen
Archie Bradley had a 1.73 ERA in 73 innings this season. He was a beast and the main reason the D-Backs were fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA.
Without Bradley, though, the group's ERA was 4.13 and there was definitely some volatility. It starts at the top with closer Fernando Rodney. He gets the job done often, but also has the occasional meltdown. He's going to be 41 years old and is a free agent. Just let him walk.
If Arizona leaves Bradley in the bullpen, he can be joined by quality holdovers like Andrew Chafin (a lefty), J.J. Hoover and Randall Delgado.
It seems to me general manager Mike Hazen and his front office need to find several bullpen arms in free agency to build this thing out.
Wade Davis is a free agent, if he wants to swing for the fences on a closer. Brandon Kintzler is as well, and he closed games for the Twins before being traded to the Nationals. Addison Reed has been a great setup man and he's out there. Some other free agent relievers: Matt Albers, Matt Belisle, Luke Gregerson, Brandon Morrow, Pat Neshek, Juan Nicasio, Bryan Shaw, Anthony Swarzak, Tony Watson, Brian Duensing and Jake McGee.
There's lots of quality there. If the D-Backs add two capable back-end arms to team with fireman Bradley, the bullpen will be among the best in baseball next season.
Catcher
Jeff Mathis is back, but he should be the backup, glove-first guy. Chris Iannetta hits free agency and it's possible they bring him back.
If not, the Diamondbacks need a starting catcher. It doesn't seem like Chris Herrmann or John Ryan Murphy will fit that role, but Murphy's at least possible, I suppose.
Arizona's top catcher prospects were all in the lower levels of the minors this season, so if they want help aside from Mathis, Herrmann and Murphy, it'll have to be from outside the organization.
The only legit starter in free agency appears to be Alex Avila, but even he is a risk. Maybe Jonathan Lucroy, despite his terrible year?
Perhaps the trade market yields a win here? Putting in a call to the Marlins to see how serious they are about rebuilding would be smart. Landing J.T. Realmuto would be a great win. Maybe the Rays want to move Wilson Ramos. The Red Sox might be willing to part with either Sandy Leon or Christian Vazquez in order to clear some playing time for Blake Swihart. The Braves have a glut of catchers. The Reds could deal Devin Mesoraco (remember, he'd have to pass a physical before being traded) and there's some upside there. The Dodgers love Austin Barnes, so maybe Yasmani Grandal could be had? The Pirates might be willing to trade Francisco Cervelli.
There are a lot of options here, so a trade feels like the best route.
The rotation
They should be fine. Aces Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray are back, as are Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin and Zack Godley. Perhaps Shelby Miller returns and pitches well. There's also the option to swing Bradley back into the rotation, though that likely leaves a void in the bullpen.
The gut feeling here is the Diamondbacks will again be a contender, so long as they beef up their bullpen and acquire a starting catcher from outside the organization. Then it's just a matter of how hard they want to push to keep J.D. Martinez.
For now, Diamondbacks fans, think back on all the good moments from 2017 and dream on re-upping with Martinez, signing Wade Davis and Addison Reed while trading for Realmuto.
