Five free MLB prop bets for Friday, March 28: Juan Soto, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Flaherty predictions, more props

The 2025 MLB season continues on Friday with a nine-game slate following an exciting Opening Day. San Diego erased a 4-3 deficit in its 7-4 win over Atlanta, as Manny Machado drove in a run during a four-run seventh inning for the Padres. Machado is listed at +170 (risk $100 to win $170) to record an RBI when the teams meet again on Friday night, according to the latest MLB odds from BetMGM. There are plenty of other MLB player props and MLB same-game parlays to consider at the top sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help inform your MLB best bets. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 32-17 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Friday.

Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 runs scored (-117) 

Diaz was outstanding against left-handed pitchers last season, batting .346 compared to .261 against righties. He is facing Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who had a 6.18 ERA on the road last year. The model suggests taking Diaz to score a run, with the best price being offered at Caesars Sportsbook.

"We would set this line at around -150 with Diaz scoring a run in around 60% of simulations," SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh said.

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Juan Soto to record 2+ total bases (+135)

Soto chased on a game-ending strikeout to wrap up his first game with the Mets on Thursday, but he reached base three times in his debut. He tallied a single early in the game before earning two walks in his next three plate appearances. Soto is facing right-handed pitcher Tylor Megill, who he has blasted a pair of home runs against in 11 plate appearances. The slugger had 31 doubles and 41 home runs last season, so he can cash this bet in just one at-bat. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering the best price at +135 odds. 

Josh Naylor Over 0.5 RBIs (+172)

Arizona is coming off an Opening Day loss to Chicago on Thursday, but Naylor had one hit and an RBI in the 10-6 final. The 27-year-old first baseman could be in line for a massive campaign batting cleanup for the Diamondbacks. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon had a 4.70 ERA on the road last season, and left-handed batters were more successful against him than righties. This prop is also available at Caesars. 

"The model loves any Josh Naylor RBI props this season with him playing in Arizona and batting cleanup. We have Naylor finishing with second most RBIs in the league behind only Aaron Judge," Oh said. "We have this bet hitting in over 50% of simulations, so you are getting really strong value at +172."

Bryan Reynolds O1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135)

Reynolds played a key role for Pittsburgh on Thursday, going 1 of 4 at the plate with two RBIs and a walk. He hit .275 with 73 runs scored, 88 RBIs and 24 home runs last season. Reynolds has gone Over 1.5 HRR in eight straight games against Miami, averaging 3.4 HRR in those outings. DraftKings is currently offering the best price at -135 odds. 

"Connor Gillispie, the Marlins starter, had a 4+ ERA in the minors last season, and while he was strong in three major league appearances as a reliever last season, starting is a whole different story as teams prepare for him pregame. The model has Reynolds with 2.8 HRR," Oh told SportsLine. 

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Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154)

Flaherty is coming off a strong season with the Dodgers, posting a 3.17 ERA across 28 regular-season starts after being shipped from Detroit to Los Angeles at the trade deadline. The 29-year-old helped lead the team to a World Series title before heading back to Detroit, where he slots in behind Tarik Skubal to open the season. Flaherty has a 2.75 ERA with 57 strikeouts across seven career starts against the Dodgers, and he averaged well over one strikeout per inning last season. The model has him finishing with 6.1 strikeouts in 5.7 innings in its latest simulations, creating value on this prop at FanDuel.  

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