The Atlanta Braves are not where they wanted to be coming into the spring. The Braves, the rare club who could define their terms as "World Series or bust" and mean it, are now resigned to a more modest goal: simply making the playoffs. That's no sure thing, either. The Braves enter Wednesday two games behind the New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks for the National League's third and final wild-card spot. A three-game series against those Mets, beginning Sept. 24, could well dictate which of these teams gains entrance to October.
Professional baseball is a results-based industry. Through that lens, it would be fair to describe Atlanta's season as disappointing. Apply some nuance to the situation, however, and you might find it remarkable that the Braves are still in the running. This is a team, after all, that has been ravaged by injuries all season long.
Yes, every team suffers their share of losses throughout a season. It's an unfortunate and inevitable part of the 162-game season. The Braves, though, have had more than their share of maladies affecting key contributors. According to Baseball Prospectus' calculations, no team has lost more projected Wins Above Replacement to the injured list than the Braves, at roughly 12. How extreme is that? Only one other team in all of Major League Baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, has lost more than even eight WAR.
Here's a brief recap of the Braves' most notable absences:
- OF Ronald Acuña Jr., the reigning National League MVP Award recipient, tore his ACL in his 49th game, bringing his season to an end in late May.
- RHP Spencer Strider, a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, required season-ending elbow surgery in April after making just two appearances.
- 2B Ozzie Albies, a three-time All-Star, hopes to return soon (albeit only as a right-handed batter) after fracturing his left wrist in July.
- 3B Austin Riley, a two-time All-Star, fractured his right hand in mid-August and hasn't played since.
The past doesn't necessarily inform the future when it comes to ballplayer performance. Still, it stands to reason that any club stripped of four of its top seven contributors from the prior season might find it hard to gain competitive traction. To think, that doesn't even include reliable lefty reliever A.J. Minter (out for the year following hip surgery) or breakout righty Reynaldo López (sidelined by shoulder woes).
With that in mind, it's somewhat remarkable that the beleaguered Braves remain in the running. Just how have they done it? Here are four (of many) factors, some obvious and others not, that help explain their resiliency.
1. Schwellenbach shines
We think everyone knows about the seasons being put forth by Chris Sale, Max Fried, and the aforementioned López. As such, we want to put the spotlight on someone who merits more national attention: rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been a driving force in Atlanta's rotation dating back to the start of the second half.
Schwellenbach, a former two-way player at Nebraska the Braves plucked in the second round of the 2021 draft, had his ascent to the majors slowed by injury. He finally debuted back in late May, almost three years after joining the organization. Naturally, it took him a few trips through the rotation before he settled in. He departed his sixth start sporting a 5.68 ERA and with just two quality starts to his credit.
Since then, Schwellenbach has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. In his last 12 outings, he's amassed a 2.88 ERA and 81 strikeouts (versus 11 walks) in 72 innings. He's notched seven quality starts as well, speaking to his consistency.
Schwellenbach has several pitches that grade as above-average or better offerings, including a 96 mph heater that plays up thanks to a deep release point and two secondary offerings (splitter and curve) that have coerced more than 40% whiffs.
The National League has been blessed this season with an inordinate amount of talented rookie pitchers, be it Paul Skenes and Jared Jones or international additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga. Don't let them crowd out Schwellenbach: his combination of high-end stuff and command makes him one worth watching.
2. Castoffs step up
The aforementioned injuries have forced the Braves to become resourceful, if not a wee bit desperate, to fill out their lineup. In turn, they've fielded a lot of names that people will struggle to recall when they take a Sporcle quiz on this club in five years. Do you remember Luis Guillorme's time in Atlanta? What of David Fletcher's? Were you aware that Cavan Biggio is currently on the active roster? How about Eli White?
We'll forgive anyone who responded with a universal "no." The Braves have, nonetheless, received more mileage from a few castoffs than could have been reasonably expected when they added them to their collection.
Second baseman Whit Merrifield spent the first half with the Philadelphia Phillies, batting .199/.277/.295 across 53 games. The Phillies released him in July, and he quickly found a home with the Braves. He's enjoyed more than a dead-cat bounce since, entering Wednesday with a .248/.353/.341 slash line across his first 39 games with Atlanta.
Outfielder Ramón Laureano, meanwhile, was cut loose by the Cleveland Guardians following an atrocious 31-game stint. He latched on with the Braves in May, and has since improved his seasonal line from .143/.265/.229 (really) to .254/.313/.417.
We don't think it's fair to describe fellow outfielder Jorge Soler as a castoff since the Braves traded for him and what remains of his three-year commitment at the deadline. Nevertheless, the reunion has worked out well. Soler comes into Wednesday sporting a .233/.352/.475 slash line with 15 extra-base hits in 38 games since returning to Atlanta.
Not every addition has worked out so swimmingly -- stand-in third baseman Gio Urshela, for example, has performed worse at the plate than he did with the Detroit Tigers -- but the Braves have needed every bit of overachieving that Merrifield and Laureano have put forth over the last few months in order to buoy their lineup.
3. Olson gets in sync
It's no secret that the Braves haven't received the production they expected from several key hitters -- that sustained underperformance and their injuries are why they're in this predicament. Barring something unforeseen, at least five notable hitters -- Matt Olson, Austin Riley; Michael Harris II; Ronald Acuña Jr.; and Sean Murphy -- will finish the year having posted the worst full-season OPS+ of their careers.
Olson's struggles had been particularly brutal given his track record and the offensive expectations associated with the first-base position. He had a terrible July, hitting .172/.257/.355 with 24 more strikeouts than walks and seven extra-base hits in 25 games. Exiting July, the day of the trade deadline, his seasonal OPS was .697.
The reason for Olson's woes? Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer blamed them on Olson's tendency to wrap his hands too far during his load, thereby causing him to be late whenever he was faced with velocity.
"His lower half can get out of whack," Seitzer told MLB's Mark Bowman in August. "But the biggest battle he's had has been his hand going too far and getting too wrapped and then getting barred out when he tries to fire. Last year, everything was looser and more flexed."
Olson has seemingly made the necessary adjustments over the last month-plus. In his last 44 games entering Wednesday, he has hit .272/.365/.537 with nine home runs and 16 additional extra-base hits, helping salvage what looked like a lost season.
Granted, Olson's final numbers are going to pale in comparison to what he did last year -- remember, he established new single-season franchise records for home runs (54) and runs batted in (139) -- but the Braves will take it. Especially if Olson can continue to bat more like his old self from now through the end of the season.
4. Bullpen doesn't bend
The Braves' relief corps enter Wednesday with the third-best ERA in all of Major League Baseball. What's more is that Atlanta's bullpen has recorded the fewest "meltdowns" this season of any team. For those unfamiliar with the "meltdown" statistic, it's FanGraphs' attempt to gauge bullpen effectiveness using Win Probability Added. (WPA uses empirical data and the game's base-out state to determine likelihood of victory.)
To quote Piper Slowinski's useful explanation from years ago: "Shutdowns and meltdowns strip away these complications and answer a simple question: did a relief pitcher help or hinder his team's chances of winning a game? If they improved their team's chances of winning by a certain amount, they get a Shutdown. If they instead made their team more likely to lose by a certain amount, they get a meltdown."
The Braves have suffered through 55 meltdowns this season, seven fewer than any other team. There's a real chance they'll become the second team since 2021 to finish the year with fewer than 60 meltdowns. The other club to do it? The 2022 Houston Astros, who won 106 games then rode an 11-2 postseason to a World Series crown.
Of course, you don't have to care about WPA or shutdowns and meltdowns or any of that to appreciate Atlanta's bullpen. Put another way: closer Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and the injured Minter have been Brian Snitker's go-to arms in high-leverage spots; the worst ERA+ of the group belongs to Johnson, at 115.