The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from the World Series. The Rays scored early and often against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, and held on for a 3-1 win in Game 5 of the ALCS at Progressive Field. Tampa leads the best-of-seven series 3-2. Because of the rainout Friday, there's a quick turnaround -- Game 6 is Monday night at Tropicana Field.
Simply put, Tampa's ace pitched like an ace, and Cleveland's ace pitched like a Triple-A callup. Drew Rasmussen chewed through the Guardians up for seven innings while Parker Messick bowed out after two innings. Messick needed 57 pitches to get six outs, which taxed the bullpen heading into a win-or-go-home Game 6. That's not great for the Guardians.
"It all ends tomorrow," Rays slugger Yandy Díaz said after Game 5. "We're going to win tomorrow."
Historically, teams that win Game 5 when a best-of-seven is tied 2-2 have gone on to win the series 67% of the time. That said, the Seattle Mariners (ALCS) and Toronto Blue Jays (World Series) both won Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead last year, and both then lost the series. The Rays are in the driver's seat, but the ALCS is far from over.
This is hardly the first time the Guardians have faced elimination this postseason. They were down 2-0 to the Chicago White Sox in the best-of-five ALDS before rattling off three straight wins to advance. Now the Guardians must win the next two games to keep their season alive and reach the World Series for the first time since 2016.
The World Series will begin in Milwaukee on Friday, with the Milwaukee Brewers awaiting the ALCS winner. Here now are our winnes and losers from Game 5.
Winner: Tampa's early picket fence
The Rays got to Parker Messick early and often
One run in the first inning, one run in the second inning, one run in the third inning. The Rays put the leadoff man on base in each of the first four innings and pressured the Guardians constantly. They scored their first run on a bases-loaded walk, their second run on three opposite field singles, and their third run on a stolen base and a bloop. Nine of the first 16 batters the Rays sent to the plate in Game 5 reached base.
At one point spanning Games 4 and 5, the Rays scored in six of seven innings, and plated nine total runs. They scored eight runs total in Games 1-3. The top of Tampa's order continues to wake up too. Their big three -- Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero -- went 12 for 28 (.429) in Games 4-5 after going 5 for 34 (.147) in Games 1-3. Tampa does not have the deepest lineup. They need those three to do damage to win, and they're doing damage now.
"I mean, Yandy's -- I've said it for many seasons, he goes, we go. We talk about leaders on the team and how they go about their business," Rays manager Kevin Cash said after Game 5.
"And what Yandy does at the top of our lineup, it ignites everybody. Not surprised that he is starting to see the ball well. I mean, that bat right there at the end with Cade Smith, it was very similar with the broken bat, the pause, the delay. He comes up and comes up with a big hit."
Loser: Parker Messick
The Rookie of the Year contender has had a disappointing postseason
Messick will finish no worse than second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and he might finish top three for the Cy Young, but he has not had a great postseason. He gave up two runs in only 4 ⅓ innings in Game 1 of the ALDS against the White Sox. He gave up two runs in 2 ⅓ innings in Game 4. In Game 1 against the Rays, Messick was charged with three runs in five innings. Yes, José Ramírez made a bad error behind him, but Messick then hung a slider to Liam Hicks to allow two more runs.
Game 5 against the Rays went no better. Messick needed 57 pitches to get six outs, and seven of the 13 batters he faced reached base. He's allowed nine runs and 28 baserunners in 13 ⅔ innings in four postseason starts. That's simply not good enough, especially for a Guardians team that wins with pitching more than offense.
"I think give a lot of credit to [the Rays hitters]," Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said after the game. "They worked some really good at-bats. They shot him the other way. They did a really nice job of not trying to do too much off of him. Made him throw a lot of pitches and worked some walks.
"Command, again, wasn't outstanding. But I thought, again, the velo is there. The ball's moving the way he wants it to. Just not enough strikes, and they really made him work."
Messick's early exit turned Game 5 into a bullpen game for the Guardians one day before a likely bullpen game in Game 6. Vogt said they will not bring ace Gavin Williams back in short rest (he threw 70 pitches in Game 3), which leaves him with few other options in an elimination game.
Tim Herrin (18 pitches), Shawn Armstrong (13 pitches), Erik Sabrowski (18 pitches), Hunter Gaddis (19 pitches), and Cade Smith (22 pitches) did heroes' work after Messick and kept the Rays off the scoreboard for seven innings. No one was overextended, but they all pitched. Herrin and Armstrong have pitched back-to-back days and their availability/effectiveness for Game 6 is in question.
There's no way around it: Messick's stinker put the Guardians in a real bind. They lost Game 5 and their bullpen had to chew up a lot of innings in the process. The last thing Cleveland needs is their top relievers to come out of the bullpen fatigued in Game 6.
Winner: Drew Rasmussen
The Rays' ace looked like, well, an ace
On a per-inning basis, few pitchers in baseball are better than the Rays ace. His 2.74 ERA since 2022 is fourth lowest in baseball among the 90 pitchers with at least 500 innings. Only Tarik Skubal (2.64 ERA), Blake Snell (2.69 ERA), and Chris Sale (2.71 ERA) have been better during that time. Few pitchers in the game are more dominant than Rasmussen.
After an uncharacteristically wobbly Game 1, Rasmussen was back on his A-game in Game 5. He held the Guardians to one run in seven innings, and only one hit in the first five innings. It was Rasmussen's second start of at least seven innings with no more than one run allowed this postseason. He also did it in his near no-hitter against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Rasmussen is the first pitcher in five years with two starts of at least seven innings and no more than one run allowed in a single postseason. Keep in mind he's only made three starts.
This has been the postseason of the opener/bullpen game. Rasmussen, not Skubal or Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Cam Schlittler or Jacob Misiorowski, has been the best starter in October. Three starts, three runs, 21 innings. Only 16 baserunners against 28 strikeouts, too. If Rasmussen pitches again this postseason, it will be Game 1 of the World Series.
Loser: Patrick Bailey
The Cleveland catcher's double plays are piling up
Acquired from the Giants in May, Bailey had the best offensive season of his career this year, though even that means just 10 homers and a .206/.272/.335 batting line. Bailey hit the game-tying home run against Rasmussen in Game 1 and hit safely in three of the first four games this series. That's the good. He's contributed somewhat.
The bad? Bailey has become a double play machine the last two games. He grounded into two doubles in Game 4 and, in the seventh inning of Game 5, Bailey hit into his third double play in six at-bats. That one came while representing the tying run against a tiring Rasmussen. That's one of those situations where you'd prefer the strikeout, you know?
The Guardians have a type behind the plate. It's Bailey and Austin Hedges, the defensive stud who won't give you much with the bat. They're willing to accept empty at-bats to get the defense. The problem is those at-bats do happen and sometimes they cost you dearly. Bailey has been the human rally killer with all these double plays the last two games.
Winner: Steven Kwan's defense
Just play the videos
I'm not sure what more Kwan can do for his team. He's getting hits (two in Game 5) and reaching base, and playing lockdown defense no matter where the Guardians stick him. Kwan threw a runner out at the plate from left field in the fourth inning of Game 5 ...
... then made a jumping catch at the top of the wall in center field to end the ninth inning ...
... both of which kept runs off the board. If not for the four-time Gold Glover, the Guardians would have been down four or five runs in the late innings, and who knows what happens then? Maybe the Rays don't have to use closer Bryan Baker and can save him for Game 6. The Guardians are one loss away from elimination, but Kwan is not to blame. He's been great.
