Diamondbacks OF Justin Upton is on the trade block. That's been known for quite a while, but Upton may not have ever been closer to landing with a new team than he was Thursday, when the Mariners and Diamondbacks agreed to a trade that would have sent him to Seattle.
Unfortunately for the teams, Upton had Seattle down on his no-trade list and vetoed the deal.
The trade would have sent top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker, SS Nick Franklin and RPs Stephen Pryor and Charlie Furbush to the Diamondbacks. And although their may have been other details to the trade that we don't know, the mere fact that we have the names of four players the Diamondbacks were ready to acquire to deal Upton lets us have a little fun.
We're going to do a little leg work for the Diamondbacks' front office (free of charge, of course) and look for a comparable deal for the team, one that Upton himself may not have the power to veto.
All work done below is completely speculative, and all proposed trades are hypothetical. I have no knowledge (inside or otherwise) of the Diamondbacks discussing any of these players with any of these clubs. Bottom line: this is not news, just an exercise in matchmaking on my part.
The Pieces
First, we have to figure out a way to quantify the package the Diamondbacks were primed to receive from the Mariners. For this, I've turned to the analysis of John Sickels on Minor League Ball, always a great read for prospect junkies.
Sickels released his Top 20 Mariners prospects on Jan. 5, and when grading the almost-dealt prospects, he gave Walker an A-minus, Franklin a B-plus and Pryor a C-plus. When looking for a comparable package, we'll have to find a team with an elite pitching prospect, a very good infield prospect and a quality relief prospect, as well as another good, young reliever (Furbush).
For this exercise, I've found 12 teams that I think have at least a slight interest in an Upton deal and that could conceivably put together a package in the ballpark of the Mariners' offer. These teams are the Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Orioles, Royals, Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Pirates, Mets and Rays. It's entirely possible that 50 to 75 percent of those teams have absolutely no interest in an Upton trade, but I think they may.
Let's look at the elite pitching prospects the Diamondbacks may be able to land. I haven't considered a few of the cream-of-the-crop prospects that I think are considered completely hands-off by their respective teams.
Elite Pitching Prospects (Grade)
RHP Jameson Taillon, Pirates (A-)
RHP Kevin Gausman, Orioles (A-)
RHP Noah Syndergaard, Mets (A-)
RHP Chris Archer, Rays (B+)
RHP Matt Barnes, Red Sox (B+)
LHP Jessie Biddle , Phillies (B+)
RHP Julio Teheran, Braves (B)
LHP Martin Perez, Rangers (B)
RHP Yordano Ventura , Royals (B)
RHP Mitch Brown, Indians (B-)
RHP Arodys Vizcaino, Cubs (B-)
LHP Casey Crosby, Tigers (B-)
The Pirates, Orioles and Mets have high-level pitching prospects and could use at least one upgrade in the outfield. In the case of the Orioles, they would have to list Gausman as a player-to-be-named later, as he was a 2012 draft pick. The Pirates aren't exactly loaded in the major-league rotation, which may make a trade of either Taillon or Gerrit Cole unrealistic. The Mets could flip one of the key pieces of the R.A. Dickey deal, but adding Upton seems to go against their offseason strategy to this point.
The Rays have long been a team with a lot of minor-league talent, even more so after trading James Shields to the Royals. Wil Myers fits in long-term in right field, but Upton would be a monumental upgrade in left field. But his contract -- $9.75 million in 2013, $14.25 million in 2014, $14.5 million in 2015 -- may be out of the Rays' budget. The Red Sox would have a few hurdles to climb, which include their spot on Upton's no-trade list and the need to trade Jacoby Ellsbury to even have a spot open for Upton, thanks to the offseason signings of Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes.
The rest of the pitchers listed likely wouldn't come near Walker's status as the top piece in an Upton deal, so those teams would have a lot more work to do when piecing a deal together than the five above. The fact that players like Teheran and Perez have already reached the big leagues does work to their advantage though.
Very Good Infield Prospects (Grade)
SS Javier Baez, Cubs (A)
3B Mike Olt, Rangers (A-)
SS Francisco Lindor, Indians (A-)
3B Nick Castellanos, Tigers (B+)
SS Alen Hanson, Pirates (B+)
2B/3B Wilmer Flores, Mets (B+)
2B/SS Jonathan Schoop, Orioles (B)
SS Hak-Ju Lee, Rays (B-)
3B Cheslor Cuthbert, Royals (B-)
SS Nick Ahmed, Braves (B-)
3B Cody Asche, Phillies (B-)
SS Jose Iglesias, Red Sox (C+)
If the Diamondbacks can live with not getting Jurickson Profar from the Rangers, that could make Texas the landing spot for Upton, as Olt is a pretty nice consolation price. Pair him with the ready-for-the-show Martin Perez, and the Rangers are on the way to an offer that at least approaches that of the Mariners. But that's even assuming the Rangers are still interested, which may not be the case, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has reported.
The Cubs could offer the best infield prospect in an Upton deal in Baez, which would somewhat help to counteract the fact that their best pitching prospect that could be dealt is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. But the Cubs also appear on Upton's no-trade list, according to Upton's entry on Cot's Baseball Contracts. Assuming the Indians aren't willing to flip Trevor Bauer, the inclusion of Lindor could help a potential Upton deal. But with Nick Swisher now in the fold and slotted to play right field, Upton may not make a whole lot of sense.
Although the Tigers' pitching prospect listed above isn't elite, they do have the firepower to make that up by including Castellanos, Bruce Rondon and a fifth-starter candidate (Rick Porcello or Drew Smyly). Imagine being a starting pitcher facing Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Upton and Victor Martinez a couple times in a game.
The Pirates, Mets and Orioles seem to match up the best in comparable offers to that of the Mariners, having a high-level pitching prospect and a quality infield prospect available. But I'm going to disregard the Mets, based on their offseason. Although there's been no word that the Pirates and Orioles could be in on Upton, they seem to have the best pieces to make a deal work, so let's make an offer for each.
We'll also include the hypothetical offer from the Tigers listed above, as well as hypothetical offers for the Braves and Phillies, two teams looking for outfield help. I've eliminated the other teams from hypothetical-trade contention, though it's obviously up to what the Diamondbacks think about each particular prospect.
Hypothetical Trades
Pirates: RHP Jameson Taillon, SS Alen Henson, RHP Kyle McPherson and RHP Mark Melancon.
Orioles: RHP Kevin Gausman, 2B/SS Jonathan Schoop, RHP Steve Johnson and RHP Pedro Strop.
Tigers: 3B Nick Castellanos, RHP Bruce Rondon, LHP Casey Crosby and RHP Rick Porcello.
Braves: RHP Julio Teheran, RHP J.R. Graham, SS Nick Ahmed and RHP Jordan Walden.
Phillies: LHP Jesse Biddle, 3B Cody Asche, RHP Ethan Martin and RHP Phillipe Aumont.
If the Pirates were to make that package available for Upton, I think it may even trump the Mariners' offer. A bold trade such as this could pay off in a competitive division race. The Diamondbacks could counter by replacing Taillon with Gerrit Cole, but in my eyes this Pirates package is enough as is without Cole.
The Orioles have been rumored to be in on several high-profile free agents, but this could end up trumping any free-agent add they could have made. It would make sense for the Diamondbacks to insist on top-prospect Dylan Bundy, but I see that as a deal-breaker for the Orioles.
The Tigers have a nice little package to offer themselves, albeit one that doesn't feature a top-notch pitching prospect. But a Castellanos-Rondon combination would likely beat most other infielder-reliever packages, and it's possible that could make up the difference between Crosby and prospects like Walker. The addition of a proven MLB starter like Porcello or Smyly over an impact reliever would also help an offer.
The Braves have been tabbed as Upton's most likely landing spot, but if the offer above is the best they can do -- and Teheran and Graham represent the Braves' top-two prospects, according to Sickels -- then it's hard to see the Diamondbacks accepting a trade. The Braves were reportedly unwilling to part with shortstop Andrelton Simmons this offseason, and I see no reason that would change. That could make a deal difficult, if not impossible.
The Phillies may not be able to offer prospects with the same name recognition, but Biddle may be closer to the top-rated starters listed above than many realize. Never rule out the Phillies when you're thinking of high-profile trades, even though it seems like they don't quite have enough to get a deal done.
Do you have any hypothetical trades that you think both sides would seriously entertain? Let's hear them in the comments section.
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