Batsman extraordinaire Juan Soto is the most coveted free agent not named Shohei Ohtani in a long, long time. Whatever contract he winds up signing this offseason is going to reflect that reality.
The market appeal of Soto is obvious. He blends power and patience at the plate to yield truly elite outcomes. Speaking of which, he's a career .285/.421/.532 hitter, and he's coming off perhaps the best full season of his career. Soto's also extremely durable, and his combination of batted-ball quality and contact skills means he's likely to age quite well. Speaking of age, he's still just 26, which is exceptionally young as premium free agents go. Because of all those factors plus a light dusting of Soto's star power and "stop what you're doing and watch him hit" aesthetic qualities, he's almost certainly going to sign a pact worth $600 million or more. Very likely, that rules out all but MLB's biggest spenders, or least those with the most resources and budget space.
When it comes to any reading of the Soto tea leaves, said reader of said tea leaves is likely to land on two favorites to land the uber-slugger: the incumbent New York Yankees or the crosstown New York Mets. Obviously, this isn't to say he's absolutely signing with one of the two Gotham squads – the Dodgers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants, the Nationals maybe, and perhaps even a mystery team or two will be heard from – but early signs point to such an ending. It's easy to lean Mets given their lust for a hitter like Soto and given owner Steve Cohen's willingness to invest in the on-field product. Yes, the Yankees have deeper coffers than any other team, but Cohen is a more willing spender than Hal Steinbrenner.
All that said, it's still easy to make the case that the Yankees should be regarded as the favorites as we head toward the heart of winter. Let's briefly examine why that may be the case – why the colossus in the Bronx may be leading the Soto derby at this early hour.
1. The Yankees have familiarity in their corner
When committing to an organization for more than a decade, which is what Soto is going to do this offseason, familiarity is important. The Yankees offer that. The Yanks acquired Soto last December in a blockbuster seven-player swap with the Padres. That meant he spent his entire walk year with the Yankees, and what a walk year it was — a slash line of .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and more walks than strikeouts.
In addition to enjoying one of his best seasons yet on the Yankees' watch, Soto got a first-hand and up-close glimpse of how the organization works at the highest level and also what it's like to bat in direct proximity to the likes of Aaron Judge. Although Soto famously has pole-to-pole power and can thump in any playing environment, as a lefty hitter he now knows what it's like to take aim at that short right-field porch in the Bronx. He knows what it's like to play under manager Aaron Boone, who'll be back in 2025. Soto also knows what it's like to play in front of those typically intense and vocal Yankee Stadium crowds. From afar, all of those seem like positives, and that year of recruitment, whether passive or direct, seemingly puts the Yankees in an advantageous position.
2. They have given Soto a taste of winning
As is the case with most free agents, money will likely carry the day for Soto. However, a parallel priority, according to his own words, is winning. The Yankees offer a likelihood of that for years to come, and they gave him a hefty dose of it in Soto's only season with them. The Yankees during this past regular season, thanks in substantial measure to Soto's lofty production, barged to an AL-best 94 wins and the American League East title. That was the first time Soto had been a part of a division winner, and those 94 regular-season wins are the most for any team Soto's been on. Beyond all that, and more to the point, he enjoyed a deep playoff run with the Yankees. They won the pennant before falling to the Dodgers in a World Series that was closer than the final series tally suggests. Soto has won it all before as a member of the 2019 Nationals, but this fresh taste of October glory also surely mattered to him a great deal.
Looking further back, the Yankees have made the postseason in seven of the last eight years, and they haven't endured a losing season since 1992. Perhaps only the Dodgers can look Soto in the eyes and promise him a stronger chance of relevance in the standings and repeated turns of October baseball in the years to come.
3. They have the money (and then some)
Maybe owner Hal Steinbrenner doesn't fully leverage enough of the Yankees' prodigious spending power, but there's no doubt they have the resources to pay Soto what he wants (and do so three times over). They have the deepest coffers of any MLB team, and they generally spend accordingly. Per Cot's Contracts, the Yankees have ranked first, second, or third in Opening Day payroll in each of the last six seasons. Yes, it's an indictment of Steinbrenner that the Yankees don't run the highest team payroll every year as they did back in the early 2000s, but the current Yanks are still big spenders. Not only can they easily afford the market rates for Soto, but they can do so while not neglecting the remainder of the roster. Judge and Gerrit Cole, after all, will also be Yankees for years to come. That's bound to appeal to Soto.
It's probably going to be some time before Soto makes his hotly anticipated decision, and if any prior superstar free agencies are any guide, there will be plot twists along the way. Until then, though, it's easy and defensible to think of the Yankees as having a bit of an edge going in. Whether or not they capitalize on it is the story of the winter in baseball.
