Given expectations, informed speculation, and prevailing horse-sense, it's fair to say, no, the Washington Nationals are quite unlikely to sign Juan Soto this offseason.
Soto is the best and most coveted free agent of the 2024-25 class, and he's one of the best and most coveted free agents we've ever glimpsed. His long record of excellence and his youth — he's somehow still just 26 years of age – all mean he's probably going to sign a contract worth $600 million or more. That, in turn, means that MLB clubs with the deepest coffers are probably going to be his most serious suitors. Indeed, Soto at this juncture seems likely to return to the Yankees or make the crosstown leap to Steve Cohen's Mets. The Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are involved. You know how these things tend to go.
Now, though, let's call back to that qualifier slipped in above, the one that goes "quite unlikely," and lean into it in order to talk about the possibility, however remote, that the Nats become a presence of note in the Soto derby. Specifically, let's look at three reasons why it's at least pondering the possibility of a vigorous bid for Soto on the part of the Nats. Onward, quixotically so …
1. They have a history
As you're surely aware, Soto and the Nats go way back. He was part of the organization from the time they signed him as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old in 2016 until the club traded him to the Padres in August of 2022. On the Nats' watch, Soto developed into a consensus top-100 prospect, and also on their watch he exceeded those expectations by becoming one of the best hitters of his generation. Soto spent the first four and a half seasons of his big-league career with Washington. Along the way, he earned a pair of All-Star selections, three Silver Sluggers, a batting title, and three top-10 finishes in the NL MVP balloting. To date, 21.3 of Soto's career 36.4 WAR came with the team that first signed him. More to the whole point of things, Soto was a central member of that 2019 Nats squad that won the World Series. In that seven-game triumph over the Astros, Soto slashed .333/.438/.741 with three homers, seven RBI, and six runs scored.
There's a legacy there – an impressive one – and Soto probably still has a certain fondness for the place where he started his career. Did the trade to the Padres harm the relationship between club and player after Soto turned down their offer of a 15-year, $440 million extension? That's possible, but the time that's passed plus a market-level offer should clear that right up.
2. They have money
As payroll situations go for the 2024-25 offseason, the Nationals are the envy of almost every other team in the league. After declining their half of Joey Gallo's mutual option for next season, the Nats and lead decision-maker Mike Rizzo have just $40.4 million on the books for next season. Yes, that figure will rise with arbitration raises, but that's still a tremendous amount of latitude (of note is that Stephen Strasburg, with his $35 million commitment for next season, remains the club's highest-paid player). The only other player under long-term contract is catcher Keiber Ruiz. Yes, that's two – two! – players who are presently guaranteed to be paid by the Nats next season.
For 2024, the Nats ran an Opening Day, active-roster payroll of roughly $125 million. They're also not far removed from running top-10 and even top-five payrolls. As such, there's plenty of room in the budget for a player like Soto. Yes, that's the case even if his contract exceeds $600 million, and that's the case even if the average annual value of his commitment reaches record territory. No, the Nationals don't have the resources of the Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers, but they do have enough spending capacity to pay Soto.
On another level, the Nats after five straight losing seasons – including a 107-loss campaign in 2022 – have drastically improved the young talent base in recent years and are ready to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. Soto fits right in with that emergence and promises needle-moving value for years upon years to come.
3. They have need
Obviously, any and every team needs a hitter like Soto in the lineup. This of course goes for the Nationals. This past season, they ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored, 25th in OPS, 25th in walks, and 29th in home runs. Soto, suffice it to say, would drastically help matters on all of those fronts. As for Soto's role, he was the Yankees' primary right fielder this past season, and for his career he has slightly more defensive innings in left than right. In the Nats' case, they can offer him the corner spot of his choosing and then deploy top prospect Dylan Crews in the other one. James Wood can man DH until Soto down the road is ready to transition to that role.
Can the Nats pull off the upset of the winter? Probably not. However, they have the financial flexibility to pay Soto, the need for him in the lineup, and a rich history upon which they can build their recruiting pitch. It's not likely to happen, but it should.