Mariners vs. Astros odds, line, score prediction, start time: 2024 MLB picks, Sept. 25 bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Wednesday afternoon's Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros matchup 10,000 times

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 25, 2024 at 7:22 am ET • 3 min read

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Although the division title is out of play, the Seattle Mariners will look to stay in the Wild-Card race when they take on the Houston Astros in a key American League West matchup on Wednesday afternoon. Houston beat Seattle 4-3 on Tuesday to clinch its seventh division title in eight years, and fourth in a row. The Mariners (81-77), who have won four of six, are 35-45 on the road this year. The Astros (86-72), who are 7-4 over the past 11 games, are 46-34 on their home field. The Mariners enter Wednesday 2.5 games out of the final Wild-Card spot.

First pitch from Minute Maid Park in Houston is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. The Astros lead the all-time series 130-88, including a 67-48 edge in games played at Houston. Seattle is a -133 favorite on the money line (risk $133 to win $100) in the latest Mariners vs. Astros odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7. Before making any Mariners vs. Astros picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the final full week of the MLB regular season, it's on a 31-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+722) that dates back to last season.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mariners vs. Astros and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Astros vs. Mariners:

Mariners vs. Astros money line: Seattle -133, Houston +112
Mariners vs. Astros over/under: 7 runs
Mariners vs. Astros run line: Seattle -1.5 (+132)
SEA: The Mariners have hit the game total over in 40 of their last 63 away games (+19.15 units)
HOU: The Astros have covered the run line in 56 of their last 99 games (+15.50 units)
Mariners vs. Astros picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Astros

Houston is expected to send left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (9-9, 4.19 ERA) to the mound. He has been dominant since being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline. In nine starts with the Astros, he is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA. In Thursday's 3-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels, Kikuchi received a no-decision as he pitched six innings, allowing five hits, one earned run and one walk, while striking out nine.

Third baseman Alex Bregman had his third multi-hit game in the past five games on Tuesday, going 2-for-4 with a home run in the division-clinching win over Seattle. In 143 games this season, Bregman is batting .257 with 28 doubles, two triples, 26 homers and 74 RBI. He was 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in a 9-8 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. He has hit the Mariners well throughout his career, batting .271 with 27 doubles, four triples, 11 homers and 53 RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mariners

Right-hander George Kirby (13-11, 3.60 ERA) is expected to get the start for Seattle. He has won his last two starts and four of his last five. In an 8-2 win at Texas on Friday, he allowed two earned runs on five hits with no walks and four strikeouts in six innings of work. In a 7-0 win over the Rangers on Sept. 15, he pitched seven innings, allowing just one hit, while striking out three.

Second baseman Jorge Polanco has been on fire and is a big reason why Seattle is still in the Wild-Card hunt. He was 4-for-4 with a homer and two RBI in Tuesday's loss to the Astros. He has a five-game hitting streak. He was 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI in an 8-4 win at Texas on Saturday. He has owned Houston pitching throughout his career. In 36 career games against the Astros, he is hitting .320 with 10 doubles, two triples, nine homers and 23 RBI. See which team to pick here.