The 2024 MLB regular season is roughly one-fifth complete -- 473 of 2,430 games have been played, or 19.5% -- and while there is still a long way to go and many more games to be played, one-fifth of the season is a pretty big chunk. The things that happened these last five weeks matter. Those wins and losses are in the bank.
As always, some teams have started out better than others, and those hot starts can meaningfully improve your postseason outlook. Again, those wins are in the bank, and the more games you win in April, the easier life is in September. The opposite is true, too. Start slow and you have to play catch-up all summer. Even on May 3, looking up in the standings is no fun.
With that in mind, here are the teams that have most improved -- and most hurt -- their postseason odds (per SportsLine) five weeks into the season. There is still plenty of time for things to change, but you can significantly change your season outlook after playing only 19.5% of the schedule.
Most improved postseason odds
| Opening Day | May 3 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians (20-11) | 24.9% | 69.8% | +44.9% |
Baltimore Orioles (20-11) | 48.9% | 91.0% | +42.1% |
Milwaukee Brewers (19-11) | 43.2% | 79.9% | +36.7% |
Guardians: After surviving with pitching and defense the last few years, Cleveland is humming along with the fifth highest-scoring offense in the game thanks to an outfield that is actually contributing at the plate. Last season, Guardians outfielders combined for a .654 OPS with 18 home runs. 18 home runs all season! This year the outfield has a .727 OPS and nine home runs. Amazing? No. Significantly better than last year? Absolutely. Also, Cleveland is allowing the seventh fewest runs per game. The Guardians and Atlanta Braves are the only two teams in the top seven of runs scored per game and runs allowed per game. Shane Bieber's injury will stress their pitching depth throughout the summer, however.
Orioles: Every projection system, not only SportsLine's, underrated the O's coming into 2024. That tends to happen with young teams that are loaded with high-end depth. Projection systems are inherently conservative and they don't yet know quite how good all those young players are. Turns out they're very, very good in Baltimore's case. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are MVP talents, Jordan Westburg is breaking out, and Corbin Burnes gives the Orioles a bona fide ace. There is more talent on the way too. Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting last year, looked great in his season debut Thursday following an elbow injury. The improved postseason odds have more to do with the projection systems catching up to the O's talent level than the O's playing better than expected.
Brewers: No Corbin Burnes, no Brandon Woodruff, no Craig Counsell, no problem for the two-time defending NL Central champs. William Contreras is emerging as one of the best hitters in the game, period, not just one of the best-hitting catchers. Brice Turang seems to have found another level, Willy Adames and Christian Yelich (before his back injury) are bouncing back, and new manager Pat Murphy has done fine work navigating a pitching staff that seems to have a new name every other day. The pitching depth will be stress-tested over the summer months with Wade Miley (Tommy John surgery) and Jakob Junis (shoulder impingement) out long-term. Fortunately for the Brewers, they've given themselves a little cushion in the season's first five weeks.
Biggest decrease in postseason odds
| Opening Day | May 3 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays (14-18) | 68.7% | 12.1% | -56.6% |
Houston Astros (11-20) | 95.7% | 61.7% | -34.0% |
Toronto Blue Jays (15-17) | 49.8% | 20.5% | -29.3% |
Rays: If it can go wrong, it is going wrong in Tampa. They're scoring the eighth fewest runs per game because Randy Arozarena (and Yandy Díaz) is slumping badly. They're allowing the sixth most runs per game because they have a bunch of pitchers on the injured list (as always), the guys who are healthy aren't performing, and the defense is prone to comedic errors. This is the antithesis of the typical Rays team. Usually, Tampa is elite at preventing runs. The 2024 group can't keep runs off the board. They play in a difficult division too, which doesn't help matters. The Rays have dug themselves a significant hole five weeks into 2024.
Astros: Simply put, the Astros can not pitch. They're scoring plenty of runs even with Alex Bregman's slow start and José Abreu being so bad that he accepted a demotion to the minors. On the run prevention side though, Houston is allowing the fifth most runs per game. To be fair, they have four starters on the injured list (Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy), plus Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander both missed time, but injuries happen, and the depth has been unimpressive. The late-inning trio of Bryan Abreu, Josh Hader, and Ryan Pressly has been much shakier than expected as well. It's hard to completely count out the Astros given the track record. The cracks in the foundation are very real though.
Blue Jays: Last year, the Blue Jays survived an average-ish offense thanks to four starters (Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi) who took the ball every fifth day and provided above-average to great results. This season, the rotation has been shakier (Bassitt and Gausman in particular) and the offense, my goodness. The Blue Jays are averaging the third fewest runs per game in baseball. Justin Turner and Daulton Varsho are the only players hitting with any sort of consistency. Bo Bichette's started slow and the continued backslide of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (and Alejandro Kirk) is the sort of thing that can close a contention window much earlier than expected. Like the Rays, the Blue Jays play in a tough division and have an uphill climb back ahead of them to get back into the postseason race.
