One day of the 2024 playoffs is in the books and it was pretty damn fun. We'll do it again Wednesday with another four-game slate, only this time four teams are facing elimination. How many can stay alive? How many of the four Game 1 winners will close things out? Let's follow along live and find out. Just like Tuesday, there will be overlap so be prepared to attack this thing with multiple screens.
Let's grab some gambling plays while we're here, too. We were 3-2 yesterday, so it was a success even if not overwhelmingly so.
Tigers at Astros, 2:32 p.m. ET
Bullpen game vs. RHP Hunter Brown
The Tigers rode Tarik Skubal to a Game 1 victory and kept the good times rolling after their late regular-season surge. They now have the Astros on the brink of elimination and the Astros haven't been out before the ALCS since 2016. And remember, the Tigers were sellers at the trade deadline. This is remarkable.
The play: First five innings, under 4 runs (-110)
The Tigers will start with Tyler Horton and he's been outstanding all year (2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP). He might only go one inning but certainly won't go longer than two. They could go with a straight-up bullpen game, but the likeliest route is Brant Hurter follows at some point and is the length/bulk guy. In this role, he has a 2.58 ERA in 45 1/3 innings and the Astros haven't seen him.
The Tigers are tasked with facing Brown. They saw him twice this season and he allowed just one run in 12 innings. He had a 2.26 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in his 12 second-half starts. The Tigers don't have a high-powered offense anyway.
I expect a very low-scoring affair through at least the middle innings. It might even be 0-0 through five.
Royals at Orioles, 4:38 p.m. ET
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zach Eflin
This core with the Orioles is now 0-4 in the playoffs after being swept after their bye last season and now dropping Game 1 of this series, 1-0, to Cole Ragans and the Royals. The offense just couldn't get going and wasted an amazing effort from ace Corbin Burnes.
The play: Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 H+R+RBI
There isn't really much I like here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles get to Lugo or if he shuts them down. It feels like a very unpredictable game to me. There's probably value on the Royals at +124, really, given how poorly this Orioles group has performed in the playoffs, but I just have a gut feeling the Orioles find a way here.
The thing I most trust in this game, however, is Witt's greatness. He just put together one of the greatest seasons in Royals history and we could safely say it was the best non-George Brett year. He's 3 for 6 with a double and triple in his career against Eflin -- who had a 3.52 ERA and 5.91 FIP in his last four starts.
Witt had 211 hits, 109 RBI and 125 hits in 161 regular-season games (2.76 H+R+RBI per game). He just went 1 for 4 with an RBI in a 1-0 game in his first foray into the postseason. A monster game might well be next.
Mets at Brewers, 7:38 p.m. ET
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Frankie Montas
The Mets showed no signs of a hangover from their doubleheader on Monday, as they fell behind in the first inning and still stormed back, twice, to win 8-4. The offense has been so good at scoring runs in bunches and now the Brewers' backs are against the wall.
The play: Mets -105
The simplest play here is the most attractive one to me. The Mets are just gonna close down the Brewers and earn themselves a few days off before the NLDS. I picked the Brewers heading into the series, but the more I looked closely at Game 1, the more I had a gut feeling the Mets were just going to bring it. Sure enough, they did. I now feel a bit stronger they will finish this thing.
Manaea had an 11-game string where he pitched to a 2.63 ERA and the Mets went 10-1 in those starts. That string ended Friday with the Brewers beating Manaea and the Mets while scoring six runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings. I trust him to get back on track here with a second chance.
Montas can be good, but he's inconsistent. The Mets just saw him last week, like with the Brewers and Manaea. He wasn't very good. It's possible he does much better.
Possibly key here: Edwin Díaz will again be available for the Mets, possibly for two innings if they feel like that's what they need. The Brewers didn't have to use Devin Williams or Trevor Megill but Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby -- arguably their third and fourth relievers -- were both hit hard by the Mets.
Braves at Padres, 8:38 p.m. ET
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
The Braves were left without a starting pitcher in Game 1 and it showed as the Padres scored three runs in the first two innings. Of course, the Braves also didn't score a single run as Michael King, Jason Adam and Robert Suarez totally dominated them.
The play: Padres -120
The Padres are noticeably worse against lefties than righties and Fried is a southpaw. Fried can pitch like an ace and he's done so in the playoffs before. The Braves' backs are against the wall. These are reasons to believe the Braves can win this game and they very well might.
I think they are cooked, though.
Musgrove had a 2.15 ERA after returning from injury and one meltdown outing (6 ER in 4 1/3 IP vs. Giants on Sept. 8) made that line far worse. Jason Adam and Robert Suarez didn't have to work hard in Game 1 while Tanner Scott didn't pitch at all, so the Padres are very well setup in the pitching department.
I'll say the Padres find a way to win this game after Fried exits.
