They've arrived? They've returned? They never really left? Whatever strikes you as the proper declaration, the San Diego Padres' recent surge has landed them in second wild-card position in the National League, and a third straight trip to the postseason -- this one under first-year manager Craig Stammen -- is looking much more likely than it did not so long ago.
The Padres find themselves in playoff position as of their home sweep of the mighty Brewers, but it's more than just that crucial series win. The Padres, even during their most forgettable stretches of the 2026 season thus far, never dug too deep a hole. They bottomed out at three games under .500 on July 23, and with three wild-card spots in each league these days, that's quite workable, as season low points go.
Speaking of which, the Padres have indeed worked it of late. They're 9-3 in August and 17-9 in the second half. In winning 15 of their last 19 overall, San Diego has passed six teams in the NL wild-card queue. This raises the matter of how the Padres have gone from afterthought to playoff contender in such a brief span of time.
Since that current 15-4 run began on July 24, the Padres:
- have the best record in the NL;
- have the second-best run differential in the NL (+31);
- have the fourth-highest OPS in MLB;
- have the second-best bullpen ERA in MLB.
The San Diego rotation has not thrived over this span -- they're 18th in MLB in starter ERA since July 24 -- but they've made up that ground elsewhere, as you can see above. The bullpen, helmed by elite lockdown closer Mason Miller, has depth, velocity, and swing and miss, and that, plus some good fortune, is why the Padres have outplayed their modest +1 overall run differential thus far. They've been the bedrock all season. Of late, Stammen has been giving Adrián Morejón – who'd be closing games for most teams – multi-inning appearances as the bridge to Miller, and that's turned a number of these wins into seven-inning games.
Offensively, they've enjoyed some modest improvements over this current run. That's the case in terms of overall production and with runners on base. More specifically, they've enjoyed much improved production from two of their leading core hitters, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. That duo had been disappointing for much of 2026, but they've found their expected level and then some over this current successful stretch. Consider:
- Tatis Jr. and Merrill, Opening Day through July 23: .255/.318/.391, 22 HR in 787 AB
- Tatis Jr. and Merrill, July 24 through present: .310/.363/.585, 9 HR in 142 AB
From the Pads' standpoint, that's much like it. Manny Machado remains in a season-long funk, although he's been a bit unlucky at the plate according to batted-ball metrics. The surges enjoyed by Tatis Jr. and Merrill, though, have helped the Padres enjoy some overall improvements offensively. That, paired with the ongoing strong high-leverage work by the bullpen, has driven the current run of success.
Now let's spin it forward. The Padres have a mere one-game cushion when it comes to playoff position, and while there's time for things to change, at present, it's looking like five teams dueling for the final two postseason berths on the NL side. Those five teams are the Padres, the Diamondbacks (presently in third wild-card position), the Phillies, the Marlins, and the Cardinals. Now let's have a look at the remaining strength of schedule -- as measured by opponents' average winning percentage -- and the season series against the Padres for all these teams.
| Team | Remaining SOS | Season series vs. Padres |
|---|---|---|
Padres | .496 | - |
Diamondbacks | .502 | 5-5 |
Phillies | .520 | 6-0 |
Marlins | .519 | 0-3 |
Cardinals | .496 | 4-3 |
In terms of remaining schedule, this is a positive set of circumstances for San Diego. The head-to-head tallies, though, are less so. That's important because MLB no longer has tiebreaker games, and anything involving the playoffs -- seeding, division titles, berths -- is first decided by head-to-head records. This means the Padres would lose tiebreakers to the Phillies and Cardinals. They'll end the regular season with a three-game home series against Arizona, and that will determine who claims the season series and thus the tiebreaker. They'll host the Marlins from Sept. 18-20, and one win in that three-game set will give them the tiebreaker over Miami.
On a roster level, the Padres' offense has been one of MLB's most unfortunate, which means their expected level of production based on batted-ball quality has fallen short of their actual production. A correction on that front -- perhaps already underway with Tatis and Merrill -- will help matters. As well, lead executive AJ Preller addressed the shallow rotation leading up to the deadline by adding Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. They'll help matters. Right-hander Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery) is on a minor-league rehab assignment. The injury outlooks for Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito are less certain, but overall, the rotation depth is better than it's been in some time and may improve further.
Add it up and SportsLine gives the Padres a healthy 68% chance of cracking the playoff field. Not so long ago, that figure was drastically lower, but San Diego has across this stretch served notice that they're not done with their long run of contention, and not done trying to hoist the trophy for the first time in franchise history.
