We are into August and the final 30% or so of the 2024 MLB regular season, which means postseason races are heating up and we can more seriously debate who deserves what award. It also means teams are stressing out over their pitchers and how they can navigate the 162-game season (and postseason!) without shutting someone down or putting them at heightened risk of injury.
Young pitchers especially must be monitored down the stretch as their workload soars beyond anything they've done previously. We often refer to these as innings limits, but it is much more complicated than that. Teams monitor high-stress pitches and innings, they watch for changes to the pitcher's mechanics and the shape of his pitches, so on and so forth. It's not simply innings totals.
That said, innings are a good proxy for workload. They give us a good ballpark idea of who's pitching deeper into the season than ever before. And it's not just injury concerns, right? Obviously that's a big part of it, we all want pitchers to stay healthy, but what good is your young stud pitcher if he's out of gas and ineffective in the postseason? Pitcher workloads are not easy to navigate.
With that in mind, let's look at pitchers on contending teams who have already work a ton in 2024. We're focusing on contenders because, you know, they need their pitchers in October. The Chicago White Sox can simply shut down Garrett Crochet, who is nearly double his previous career high in innings, when they deem it necessary because they're out of the race.
Here are five pitchers with workload issues contending teams will have to navigate in the coming weeks, plus a few others worth mentioning.
1. Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Gil has been a revelation for the Yankees this season. He was optioned to minor-league camp on March 3, then Gerrit Cole went down with nerve inflammation in his elbow a week later, and Gil came back and won the No. 5 starter's spot. Gil went from fill-in No. 5 starter to New York's best and most consistent pitcher. He's a leading AL Rookie of the Year candidate too.
This is also Gil's first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He had surgery in May 2022, returned to make two short minor-league rehab appearances last September, and has already exceeded his previous career high in innings.
| 2024 IP | 2023 IP | Career high IP | |
|---|---|---|---|
Luis Gil | 112 2/3 | 4 (TJS rehab) | 108 2/3 (2021) |
Gil's performance has not slipped -- he had a 3.33 ERA in July and held opponents to a .202/.282/.354 line -- and all the underlying numbers on his stuff (velocity, spin, movement, etc.) have held steady all season. What did change at one point was Gil's arm slot. Specifically, he dropped his arm slot in June, and his changeup flattened out. Here is Gil's vertical release point by game:
His four lowest release points of the season came in a four-start span from June 14 to July 2. Gil and the Yankees chalked it up to a mechanical flaw, not fatigue, and it appears Gil has corrected that mechanical flaw. His release point has been back where it needs to be his last four times out, and his performance rebounded as well. That brief scare was just a slump, it seems.
"Obviously, Luis Gil, first and foremost, hasn't had the track record of innings over the last few years, so we have to be really mindful of his workload as we go," Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said recently (via New York Post). "I think we've been pretty upfront that we're not going to put an arbitrary innings limit on him. More so, we're going to look at how he's responding to the workload he's currently managing, how his work looks like in between (starts), what his recovery looks like in the weight room and training room, how his metrics are tracking as we go. All of those things are important and maybe give us a more informed decision on him."
Gil turned 26 in June and the Yankees have started giving him extra rest these last few weeks. They used the All-Star break to give him a nice long nine days off between starts, and when Gil makes his start Tuesday night, he'll be on seven days rest thanks to recent off-days. With three more off-days coming this month, the schedule already offers Gil some built-in rest.
Clarke Schmidt is several weeks away from returning from his lat strain. Rookie Will Warren gave the Yankees an admirable spot start in his MLB debut last week. If they intend to skip any of Gil's starts down the stretch, they'll either have to wait for Schmidt to return, or give Warren more run. With the AL East title there for the taking, fewer Gil starts equals lower division title odds, but also maybe a better chance to win in October.
To date, Gil has handled his workload well and he's gone from fill-in for Cole to an indispensable part of the rotation. Putting him in the bullpen to limit his work down the stretch is a fine idea, but Schmidt is weeks away and Marcus Stroman is losing his battle with Father Time (6.32 ERA since June 1). Gil is needed in the rotation and he's already thrown more than ever.
2. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
The Royals hit the trade deadline jackpot last summer when they landed Ragans (and a prospect!) for rental Aroldis Chapman. The Texas Rangers went on to win the World Series, so they don't regret the trade for a second, but Ragans has since emerged as one of the very best pitchers in the sport. He has a 3.11 ERA with 248 strikeouts in 205 2/3 innings with Kansas City.
Ragans, 26, is a two-time Tommy John surgery guy (March 2018 and May 2019) who has had no arm trouble since getting his elbow rebuilt for the second time. He is right at his previous career workload, however.
| 2024 IP | 2023 IP | Career high IP | |
|---|---|---|---|
Cole Ragans | 134 | 124 1/3 | 134 2/4 (2022) |
Unlike Gil, who is his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, Ragans has a good innings base under him. His workload right now is in line with the last two years. But, again, there are still another eight weeks to play in the regular season, and the Royals are firmly in the wild-card mix. They need Ragans to get them to October, and they'll need him more when they get there.
Ragans' current workload might be in line with the last two years, but it is not hard to notice his velocity dip. His fastball has been trending down pretty much all year. A fastball that averaged 96.3 mph in April was down to 94.2 mph in his first August start. It wasn't a one-start blip either; it was the continuation of a trend.
For sure, Ragans has still pitched quite well even with declining velocity -- 3.45 ERA since July 1 with a .216/.284/.362 opponent's line -- but teams say they no longer set arbitrary innings limits and instead monitor things like pitch shape and mechanics, and well, Ragans is losing velocity. Not a little bit of velocity either. Red flag might be a bit strong. This is a yellow flag though.
"I think he's doing great," Royals manager Matt Quatraro said about Ragans' workload recently. "Super physical. Really well prepared. Understands rest and recovery, nutrition, all those kinds of things that help him. He's built for this. He's really to taking on the challenge."
Ragans had extra rest for every start in July -- the Royals used the All-Star break to give him nine days between starts in the middle of the month -- and the Michael Lorenzen trade allowed Kansas City to stash Alec Marsh in Triple-A. Marsh is a viable depth option should the Royals decide to push Ragans back or even skip a start to keep his workload in check these next few weeks.
At the same time, Ragans is no worse than their second-best starter, and the less Ragans pitches, the less likely it is the Royals make the postseason. They're firmly in "every game matters" territory given the wild-card race. It's a delicate balance. Ragans is losing velocity and already at his career-high innings total. Keeping him fresh and rested the next few weeks will be crucial.
3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Is Skenes already the best pitcher in baseball? I'm willing to hear arguments. What is inarguable is Skenes being Pittsburgh's best pitcher, and the Pirates needing as much out of him as possible to secure a wild-card spot. They've done themselves no favors these last two weekends (2-4 against the wild-card contending Arizona Diamondbacks), but they are still in the race.
Truth be told, the Pirates did an excellent job preparing the 22-year-old Skenes to pitch deep into the season, as frustrating as it was. They handled him very, very carefully in Triple-A in April and May. Skenes did not throw 50 pitches until his third start or 70 pitches until his fifth start. He did not throw 80 pitches in a game this season until his MLB debut on May 11, which was his eighth start of 2024.
Furthermore, Skenes has made all 14 of his MLB starts with at least one extra day of rest -- he went 11 days between starts around the All-Star break -- and the Pirates have enough off-days coming up these next few weeks that built-in rest for Skenes already exists. For the sake of having the numbers, here are Skenes' workloads (2023 is almost entirely his time at LSU):
| 2024 IP | 2023 IP | Career high IP | |
|---|---|---|---|
Paul Skenes | 113 1/3 | 129 1/3 | 129 1/3 (2023) |
Hats off to the Pirates. They did a great job putting Skenes in position to pitch deep into the season. The flip side of that is, if they had carried Skenes on their Opening Day roster, they'd probably have a better chance at the postseason, though in that case we're sitting here talking about Skenes' climbing innings total. They opted to control his workload in April, not September.
"He's in good shape, in terms of his total volume and where we're projecting that between now and the rest of the season," GM Ben Cherington said Sunday during his weekly radio show on 93.7 The Fan. Cherington also said the Pirates may attempt to pick a spot where they have Skenes throw fewer pitches, but that his recovery between starts will be a bigger signifier than the actual innings count.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh's other rising star, has not pitched since July 3 because of a lat strain and is still a few weeks away. Jones has thrown 91 innings this year. He threw 126 1/3 innings last year and 122 2/3 innings in 2022. Because of the injury, Jones' workload isn't a concern now. Skenes is the one to watch and he's positioned to pitch deep into 2024. Good work, Pirates.
4. Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have already used 17 different starting pitchers this season, seven of whom have made at least seven starts. Stone and Tyler Glasnow have been the two constants. Stone, 25, won a rotation spot in spring training and has put together a strong rookie season, although his last few outings have been rough: 7.15 ERA with a .375/.405/.683 opponent's line in his last five starts.
"He's been our most consistent starter as far as taking the baseball, giving us length, but I think if you look back at since (shutting out the White Sox on June 26), it hasn't been what he was doing the first few months of the season," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after Stone's last start (via Orange County Register). "I don't know if it's fatigue. Everything I hear from our guys, he still feels strong and the fastball velocity at times during an outing is right in line with where it has been. That's a good thing. I don't know if it's fatigue, but it very well could be."
Los Angeles has had a lot of trouble keeping pitchers healthy the last few seasons, particularly young, hard throwers, but Stone is the exception. He has a clean injury history and a good innings base under his belt.
| 2024 IP | 2023 IP | Career high IP | |
|---|---|---|---|
Gavin Stone | 111 2/3 | 131 2/3 | 131 2/3 (2022) |
Stone threw 121 2/3 innings in 2022 as well. Where he's at now is nowhere he hasn't been before, and Stone has made only two of his 20 starts on normal rest. The Dodgers are very diligent about giving their pitchers extra rest as often as possible, including using the bullpen games to fill-in as necessary. Stone has benefited. There has been no change to his stuff as the innings mount.
That said, Stone's performance has declined the last month or so, and Roberts didn't outright dismiss fatigue as a possible cause. This is a good reminder that not all innings are the same. Major-league innings are more intense and more taxing than minor-league innings, so while Stone's workload is in good shape on paper, these 111 2/3 innings were more demanding than last year's 131 2/3.
Walker Buehler is on a rehab assignment and Yoshinobu Yamamoto has begun throwing, plus the Dodgers have Bobby Miller and Landon Knack (and Justin Wrobleski) in Triple-A, though Miller was scratched from Friday's start with adductor tightness. If they are compelled to push Stone back or skip a start, they have bodies to fill in. His recent rough patch could be the result of a fatigue. If it is, it's not showing up in the quality of his stuff, just his execution.
5. Various San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish is away from the Padres tending to a family matter and Joe Musgrove has been out with elbow inflammation since late May. San Diego's two most veteran pitchers have combined to make only 21 starts. The load has fallen on Dylan Cease, who's been out of this world lately, and also a bevy of pitchers in their first full season as big-league starters.
| 2024 IP | 2023 IP | Career high IP | |
|---|---|---|---|
Michael King | 124 1/3 | 104 2/3 | 161 1/3 (2018) |
Randy Vásquez | 95 2/3 | 118 | 118 (2022) |
Matt Waldron | 128 1/3 | 133 2/3 | 133 2/3 (2023) |
King was a starter in the minors, hence those 161 1/3 innings in 2018, but he spent most of 2021-23 as a shutdown high-leverage reliever with the Yankees. They moved him back in the rotation late last year and he was excellent. Excellent enough to be the main piece in the Juan Soto trade. King has been in the rotation all season and has pitched very well, especially lately.
His situation is unique because he's not a young kid (King is 29) and he has experience throwing a starter's workload. It was a long time ago though, and King has already thrown more innings this year than he did in 2023 (104 2/3), 2022 (51), or 2021 (69). I'm not sure even the Padres and King know what to expect moving forward in terms of fatigue and managing his workload.
"Body feels great," King said when asked about his workload last month (via San Diego Union-Tribune). "Happy with that. I think I've worked well with the trainers and strength coaches to keep my body prepared for however many innings it's going to be. But first half was decent. Still a lot to learn, but making strides every time."
Vásquez came over with King in the Soto trade and is a 25-year-old pitcher with a decent innings base under him. He threw at least 100 innings every year from 2021-23, and is inching closer to that total this year. Vásquez has been excellent lately -- he's allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts -- but the Padres might need to build in some extra rest for him down the stretch.
Similar to King, Waldron is not a young kid (28 next month). Unlike King, Waldron has been a starter pretty much his entire career. Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, he averaged 126.5 innings a year from 2019-23. Also, Waldron is a knuckleballer! Not a full-time knuckleballer, as he throws it only 40% of the time, but he throws it, and it is in theory a pitch that is not especially taxing.
Among these three Padres, Waldron seems to be in the best shape to continue pitching with no limitations. Vásquez is still a young pitcher who may need to be reined in at some point. King? He's an unusual one. He's thrown a lot of innings in the past, but not recently. He's the epitome of a "monitor his mechanics and pitch shapes, and adjust as necessary" pitcher when it comes to his workload.
Others to keep an eye on
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants: On Saturday night, Harrison cleared 100 innings for the third straight season. His career high is the 113 innings he threw in 2022. The Giants moved reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks into the bullpen recently in part because of his workload. Doing the same with Harrison at some point can't be ruled out, especially with Robbie Ray now available to give the team innings down the stretch.
Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox: Houck (134 innings) and Crawford (127 2/3 innings), two 28-year-olds, are right at their previous career highs in innings. Crawford might be showing signs of fatigue -- he's allowed 12 homers in his last three starts and his velocity has dipped a tad -- and, given their rotation depth situation, Boston might have trouble covering innings if they decide to give Crawford a rest. Brayan Bello, it should be noted, is still 50 innings short of last year's total after missing three weeks with a lat inning earlier this year.
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners: Miller, 26 in three weeks, threw 133 2/3 innings in 2022, 151 innings in 2023, and he's at 126 2/3 innings in 2024. He's in good shape to continue taking a regular turn through Game 162 and into the postseason. Bryan Woo, meanwhile, is still 57 innings short of last season's total after missing time with elbow and hamstring trouble earlier this year.
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles: Rodriguez, 24, is up to 116 2/3 innings this year after throwing 163 1/3 innings last year. He's very important to the O's short- and long-term, so of course they'll monitor him, but Rodriguez is well-positioned to pitch deep into the season and postseason. Nothing to fret about here.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves: A two-way player in college, Schwellenbach's 109 2/3 innings this year are more than he threw in his college and pro career combined prior to 2024 (96 2/3). Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to elbow surgery in April and they have not been shy about cycling through their depth starters. If/when they determine Schwellenbach needs a break, either a few extra days of rest or a start(s) skipped entirely, they have the bodies to plug in.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins: Somehow still only 23, Woods Richardson's 108 2/3 innings are close to the 118 1/3 innings he threw last year, his career high. He has been one of Minnesota's steadiest performers and they did not bring in any rotation help at the trade deadline. Woods Richardson will continue taking a regular turn and the Twins will have to keep an eye on is velocity, mechanics, pitch shapes, etc. as the inning pile up.
The 30-something club: This group includes Reynaldo López (Braves) and Ronel Blanco (Houston Astros). López, who recently left a start with forearm tightness, transitioned back into the rotation this season, and his 104 2/3 innings this year are his most since throwing 184 in 2019, the last time he was a starter. Blanco's 124 innings are creeping up on the career-high 124 1/3 innings he threw last year. López and Blanco aren't kids, but these are big workloads compared to their last few seasons. Luis Severino (Mets) is sitting at 123 2/3 innings. He threw more than 190 innings in 2017 and 2018, but his high since then is 102.