| The playoffs are still a puzzle at this point. (US Presswire) |
It has come down to this: Each playoff contender has three games remaining in the regular season. While some matters already have been sorted out, most of the playoff picture can be characterized as "wonderfully muddled." In fact, 10 of Monday's 15 games involve teams still alive for a postseason berth. So let's see what still hangs in the balance.
Playoff picture page | Sunday's scoreboard | Three-day schedule
AL East: The Orioles and Yankees are tied with three to play. Yes, it's Oct. 1, and the Orioles are tied for first place. Give the Yanks the edge, though, when it comes to the remaining schedule. They get the last-place, auto-piloting Red Sox at home, while the Orioles will finish the regular season on the road against the Rays, who have arguably been the best team in baseball over the last two weeks or so. The other good news for the Yanks is that CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda will be starting two of the three games against Boston.
AL Central: It's all but over. The White Sox, at three games back, can only muster a tie with the Tigers and then force a one-game playoff. Obviously, though, that would require Chicago to win out against the Indians and Detroit to lose its final three games against the lowly Royals. The next Tigers win or the next White Sox loss means a division title for Motown.
AL West: This one will be determined by the two teams in question. The Rangers enter the season-ending series in Oakland with a two-game lead in the West. In other words, the A's must sweep to win the division. It's unlikely, of course, but so is pretty much everything else about the 2012 Oakland A's. The pitching match-ups for this series go as follows: Monday, Martin Perez vs. Jarrod Parker; Tuesday, Matt Harrison vs. Travis Blackley; Wednesday, Ryan Dempster vs. A.J. Griffin.
AL wild card: As stated above, there's lots to sort out here. The AL East runner-up will claim one of the two berths, and Oakland presently holds a three-game lead over the Rays and Angels for the second spot. It's also possible for Oakland to finish with a better record than the AL East runner-up and thus wind up hosting the wild-card game. An Oakland sweep of the Rangers at home would drop the Rangers into wild-card status. For the Rays or Angels to force chaos, they must win out and hope the A's lose out. The overwhelming likelihood is that Oakland visits the AL East runner-up for the wild-card game.
AL top seed: The Rangers have a one-game lead over the Yankees and Orioles for best record in the league. And, yes, the A's are still alive for this, too. As for tiebreakers (i.e., head-to-head records), let's resort to "greater than, less than" symbolism: Yankees > Rangers, Rangers > Orioles, A's > Orioles, A's = Yankees (the A's would hold the, um, tiebreaker of the tiebreaker over the Yankees by virtue of their higher winning percentage within their division).
NL East: The Nationals lead the Braves by a trio of games with three to play. In other words, the next Nats win or the next Braves loss means a division title for Washington, while the best the Braves can hope for is to force a one-game playoff. Coolstandings.com gives the Nats a 98.7% chance of closing the deal.
NL Central: The Reds have clinched.
NL West: The Giants have clinched.
NL wild card: The Braves have clinched the top spot and, given their long odds of winning the East, that's almost certainly the role they'll play in the postseason. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are heavy favorites to be the road team in the wild-card game. They lead the Dodgers by two games with three to play. The interesting wrinkle is the Cardinals end the season against the Reds, while the Dodgers will finish up with the Giants. In other words, they'll be playing hated division rivals who figure to be in "rest-the-regulars" mode in advance of the postseason. The Dodgers and Giants, of course, have long delighted in knocking out the other one, so perhaps the Giants will be playing with a bit more purpose than the Reds. Whatever the case, the Cardinals are heavy favorites to wrap up the second wild card.
NL top seed: Going into Monday's action, the Reds and Nationals are tied for best record in the league. The Reds, as detailed above, will visit St. Louis to end the regular season, so they'll be playing a quality opponent that could be in "all-hands-on-deck" mode for the entire series. The Nats, in contrast, will host the rudderless Phillies for the final three. The Nats also hold the tiebreaker over the Reds by virtue of a 5-2 head-to-head record this season. While the Giants are three games off the pace with three to play, they lose head-to-head tiebreakers with both the Nats and Reds.
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