This is not a mock draft. I repeat, this is not a mock draft.
I won't allow myself to dip into that realm until Thursday afternoon at the earliest. I'm not prepared yet, and some of these teams, sadly, aren't prepared yet (hello, Cleveland), either. And the exercise in futility that is the mock draft, well, I am totally cool with putting it off for as long as possible.
But this will be a column that inches me a little closer in that regard and further informs what I hope will be a sterling mock come the middle of the week. This is my stab at determining the 32 players with the best odds of hearing their name called Thursday night, while knowing that all it takes is one curve ball and one unpredictable occurrence to turn the entire first night of the draft in a manner no one saw coming.
Still, now less than a week out from the start of it all, I believe it makes sense to take a positional analysis of how the first-round might break down and to try to sort out these players with the greatest chance to be taken on the first night. In years past I have done as well as nailing 26 of the prospects who get the nod on the opening night. It won't be long before I find out how I perform this time around.
Of course, by the time I put the phone down Thursday night there might be a name or two who I staunchly expect to get selected in the first round who does not appear here, and some kids who I can't believe I listed this high at the start of the week, but that's just the way it goes this time of year.
So with that out of the way, let's take a crack at breaking this first round down, position by position.
Quarterbacks (4)
Who's getting picked: Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer
Trubisky will be the first to go and I still believe it is entirely possible he is gone by the sixth overall pick. If owner Jimmy Haslam has his way, and the Browns can't complete a trade with the Pats for Jimmy Garoppolo, well, maybe he ends up being the first player selected. This is the Browns, after all.
The Jets at No. 6 like him, the Browns pick again at No. 12 and the Cards at No. 13 are big time in the QB market. I expect Mahomes to be gone by the early teens while Watson remains a bit more of a wild card. I don't see the Bills at No. 10 or Saints at No. 11 going QB, but I also don't think there is any way Watson slips past the Texans at No. 25 or Chiefs at No. 27 at the bottom of the first round. And if three QBs go in the first 13 picks, for instance, then the Texans might end up taking Kizer, the Notre Dame product. I'm far from convinced that Kizer will definitely go Thursday night and Cal's Davis Webb might pass him, depending on how the board falls, but right now I'm still leaning toward Kizer being the fourth passer taken.
Running backs (2)
Who's getting picked: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey
Fournette is a man among men and will be the first back taken. I'm still leaning to the Jags at No. 4 overall, although that team is certainly capable of surprise picks and perhaps, in fact, they do take a quarterback again. Regardless, Fournette isn't getting by the Panthers at No. 8. And if Fournette does go as high as I believe, then two running backs are quite possible to land in the top 10, with McCaffrey the second off the board.
Again, Carolina is a prime landing spot. And the Browns at No. 12 would be another one, assuming they find a passer somewhere other than that pick. Joe Mixon could end up being one of the breakout players of this draft, but the fact that he struck a female on video will keep him put of the first round. Teams have plenty of worries about Dalvin Cook as well, and if I was the Bucs, for instance, I would take Mixon over Cook, but I am hearing a lot of buzz about the Bucs stopping Cook's fall. So it could well be that three of these backs end up hearing their name called Thursday. This was a position I went back and forth on.
Wide receivers (2)
Who's getting picked: Mike Williams, Corey Davis
This draft really is that bad in terms of normal skill positions. I don't see teams stretching Thursday for pass catchers, especially with so many move tight ends available who could be true matchup nightmares. Williams is the closest thing to a No. 1 receiver in this draft and with the Titans picking twice in the first 18 selections I don't see him getting anywhere close to the 20s. Davis is the next man up and the higher Williams goes the higher he stands to go. I just couldn't find a way to sneak another receiver into this list. Plenty will go on Day 2, I figure. I hear too much crazy stuff about John Ross' medicals to include him in this group.
Tight ends (2)
Who's getting picked: O.J. Howard, David Njoku
Some real quality and quantity at this position and a run on tight ends will begin atop the second round, I surmise, starting with Ashland's Adam Shaheen -- aka "Baby Gronk." But I'm sticking with two in the first round. Howard won't last long at all and I suspect is gone in the top 10 picks. Njoku isn't as polished and has a few more questions about him, but there are teams at the top of Friday's second round that would be willing to move up to break his fall if necessary and he has too much freakish talent to get beyond, say, someone like the Falcons at No. 31 who might not need him but would have a hard time passing on him.
Offensive linemen (4)
Who's getting picked: Garett Bolles, Cam Robinson, Ryan Ramczyk, Forrest Lamp
This is the weakest offensive line draft I can recall in a long, long time and while some contend that will lead to lesser linemen being bumped up the draft board, I don't quite see it that way. I believe that run will come Friday, but, even despite a league-wide demand, there just aren't enough suitable tackles and interior linemen to go around.
However, starting with Denver at No. 20 and going through the end of the first round, there are enough teams who desperately need help in the trenches to predict four going in the top 32 picks. If Bolles, who turns 25 in May, was a few years younger he might be the one worthy of a top-15 pick, but under these circumstances I don't see it. The Broncos, Dolphins, Giants, Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Saints are among those who at least have to look long and hard at this bunch come Thursday. If anything I would bet the under on this position and not the over; maybe only three go.
Edge rushers and interior defensive linemen (7)
Who's getting picked: Myles Garrett, Jonathan Allen, Solomon Thomas, Haason Reddick, Tim Williams, Derek Barnett, Taco Charlton
This position isn't quite what it usually is, either, particularly with the defensive tackle spot short on true nose tackles and interior disruptors. But it should include the first overall pick, and I don't see any way that Garrett, Allen and Thomas aren't all gone more or less in the top 10. Reddick, for me, is a defensive end and not a linebacker, though that could vary depending on the scheme played by the team that selects him. Williams, an outside linebacker, has the chance to be a difference maker as a speed rusher, and while he is a one trick pony, boy, what a singular trick to play. Barnett was super productive in the SEC and probably goes in the teens and Charlton has enough edge passing rushing promise to go as well. It could be that a solid quarter of the first round picks end up coming from this position, but in the end the inherent give-and-take of the numbers game led to me going with seven.
Linebackers (3)
Who's getting picked: Reuben Foster, Jarrad Davis, Jabrill Peppers
There are plenty of people telling me how far Foster will fall because of his diluted test sample at the NFL combine and any number of other rumblings about his character and/or off-field issues … but I still don't see him slipping out of the first round. I'm still far from certain I see him slipping past the Ravens at No. 16 in the middle of the first round. He is too good and too productive for me to see that. He is definitely a top-10 talent.
Davis is the next best option and I can't help but wonder, if the Patriots end up with a bunch of the Browns second-round picks in a Garoppolo trade, if they move up to land him in the 20s somewhere. The Raiders and the Bucs would make sense, too. And Peppers I'm listing as a linebacker for these purposes, though he might end up being more of a hybrid in-the-box safety, but the Steelers and Seahawks could make sense for him late, whatever you want to call him.
Cornerbacks (5)
Who's getting picked: Marshon Lattimore, Gareon Conley, Marlon Humphrey, Kevin King,
I am probably a little light here. It could be one more of these guys goes in the first round than I am listing (Adoree' Jackson of USC was the first man left off this list). This was a real struggle, because from the Eagles at pick No. 14 right through the end of the first round there is a slew of teams deeply invested in finding defensive back help. The Colts (No. 15), Ravens (No. 16), Redskins (No. 17), Titans (No. 18), Lions (No. 21), Dolphins (No. 22), Texans (No. 25), Seahawks (No. 26), Cowboys (No. 28), Packers (No. 29) and Saints (No. 32) are among them.
There is going to be a run on these kids, make no mistake, and it's very hard to discern the order in which they will go. Some have better return ability than others and some have the ideal length teams are coveting. Despite issues with his hamstrings I figure Lattimore is the first gone, and somewhere in the top seven picks, and then the frenzy will get going for the rest in the teens.
Safeties (3)
Who's getting picked: Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Obi Melifonwu
This is clearly one of the best and deepest positions in the draft and one that is destined to have at least one player go in the top five and possibly two in the top seven. It has quantity and quality and is loaded with difference makers. I could actually see four going (Josh Jones of NC State is getting legit consideration here, too) but the fact that Melifonwu had world-class combine scores coupled with his ability and production as a corner, a free safety and a strong safety tell me he isn't getting past all the teams picking late in the first round that could use him.
