And the solo leader of the AFC North after Week 1 is (drumroll please), the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Yes, after kicking six field goals to beat the Falcons 18-10, the Steelers (1-0), a team that was a popular pick to finish last in the division and with no definitive starter at quarterback, currently sit alone atop the AFC North, a division that was the best in the NFL last season -- and maybe the best in all of the four major North American sports last year. The Ravens (who were the division favorites entering the season), Browns and Bengals all lost, leaving the AFC North upside-down.
Granted, the 2024 NFL season is only one week old, but the results from the season's opening week should have at least two of the AFC North teams concerned, according to the SportsLine Projection Model.
No AFC North team is more under pressure in Week 2 than Cincinnati. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals shockingly lost 16-10 to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites in Week 1, torpedoing many survivor pool players. Cincinnati was limited to just 234 yards of total offense while allowing 170 rushing yards to a New England team that won just four games last season and was projected to be one of the worst in the AFC.
The loss, combined with other scheduled opponents playing better than their preseason expectations (namely the Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs) cut the Bengals' playoff chances almost in half, from 53% to 27%, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model -- which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception -- projects Cincinnati to win just 8.1 games this season, down from 9.4 prior to Week 1.
Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says the Bengals already face a near must-win game this week at the Chiefs if the team hopes to make the playoffs. Cincinnati is a 6-point underdog against the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
"The Bengals' season could be instantly revived or basically end in Week 2 depending on if they win and the Ravens lose against Las Vegas or vice versa," Oh says.
Meanwhile in Cleveland, the Browns are trying to find answers after a Week 1 no-show against the Cowboys, losing 33-17. The good news for Cleveland is that, by losing to an NFC team rather than an AFC team, the Browns' playoff chances did not drop as much as it could have, down to 29% from 42% prior to the season, according to the model.
The bad news is that the Myles Garrett-led defense continues to underperform.
"The Browns were proud about being the No. 1 defense last season in yards allowed per game, but their last three opponents have scored 31, 45 and 33 points," Oh says. "Is this the most overrated great defense ever?"
Baltimore (0-1) remains the favorite to win the division despite losing in Week 1 at the Chiefs, finishing atop the division 49.7% of the time according to the model's simulations. However, the Ravens' loss to Kansas City negatively impacted their chances of winning the Super Bowl, as the defeat significantly reduced their chances of earning the No. 1 seed (and accompanying first-round bye and home-field advantage) for the playoffs. Baltimore wins the Super Bowl just 8.9% of the time in the simulations, which is down from more than 12% prior to Week 1.
Still, that means the +1200 price on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, which implies a 7.7% chance, represents almost +2 percentage points of value.
This week, Baltimore hosts Las Vegas and is a 9.5-point favorite.
"A win at home against the Raiders won't help Baltimore much, but a loss would drop them massively the same way a bad home loss to the Patriots crushed the Bengals," Oh says.
As for the Steelers, the current division leaders have just a 28.1% chance to win the AFC North, which ranks second to only the Ravens, according to the model. But that is significantly more than Pittsburgh's chances prior to the season, which sat at just 4.0%.
As for Week 2, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Steelers and Denver Broncos. However, that game isn't one of the three with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 2. You can find those top-tier Week 2 NFL picks at SportsLine.
