Last month we listed seven teams who made the playoffs in 2023 that could miss the postseason in 2024. Naturally, people got mad! No one likes being told their favorite team might not make the playoffs, but the math is pretty simple: On average the last three years (since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams) we see somewhere between six and seven different teams make the postseason each year.
Whether it's injuries or variation in performance or just plain old random luck, the line is so fine between a playoff team and a non-playoff team we see massive shifts every single year.
With that in mind, let's dive into some teams who might take a step forward and MAKE the playoffs after being on the outside looking in last year. You can find last year's list right here -- it featured some great calls (Texans, Lions) and some terrible ones (Falcons, Panthers 🤢) and one (the Jets) that got derailed by injury.
If I left your team out or you're still mad about the other list, feel free to yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson.
New York Jets
Speaking of those Jets, how can they not top this list? They finished last year 7-10, outperforming their expected win total of 5.8 fairly significantly. But they also went 4-5 in one-score games, and, quite obviously, did all of this without Aaron Rodgers, who tore his Achilles four snaps into the season. The underlying problem for Rodgers -- aside from his age (turns 41 in December) -- was the question marks up front on the Jets offensive line. New York went all in on addressing that problem this offseason, signing both Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses while investing a first-round pick in Olu Fashanu.
If the line holds up the offense could be really fun. Rodgers plus Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson -- both solid double-digit looks for OPOY investments -- equates to a very fun trio. The Jets' other investments in the offense aren't too shabby either: Mike Williams, a big-play threat waiting to happen if he's healthy off his torn ACL last year, was a solid free-agent signing and both Malachi Corley and Braelon Allen are fun additions through the draft.
Defensively, this team shouldn't miss too much of a beat as long as they get Haason Reddick back into camp. This defense is still loaded at all levels. It essentially comes down to whether Rodgers is healthy or not this year.
Cincinnati Bengals
The same above can be said for the Bengals and Joe Burrow. The oft-injured quarterback has had quite the interesting offseason, spending time in Paris modeling for Fashion Week and then showing up to training camp having gone platinum blonde and looking like Pete Davidson crossed with a Ken doll. It's either Burrow having lost his mind or Burrow preparing to go enormous this season, and given Joseph Brrrrrr's penchant for winning when it matters most, I lean toward the latter.
The Bengals finished a full game above their expected win total last year and went 5-4 in one-score games. Like the Jets, it's hard to really put their underlying statistics into context given their lack of QB health. Burrow hurt his calf in training camp around this time a year ago, wasn't quite right until a few weeks into the season and promptly injured his wrist, knocking him out for the year. If you take the five-game stretch of Burrow being healthy (Weeks 5-9) he put up a 17-game pace of 5,032 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. I was surprised, too.
Tee Higgins possibly holding out could have been a red flag. Ja'Marr Chase is "holding in" could be as well. But I think this is just a case of the Bengals doing what the Bengals do. Chase won't miss any time, Higgins looks prepped for a full season and both guys can just go out and earn massive contracts by playing well this year. Cincy also added Jermaine Burton and there's been some serious training camp buzz surrounding Andrei Iosivas.
Defensively there's some slight concern about Trey Hendrickson's contract but I would guess their bare-handed pass rusher doesn't skip any meaningful time. Sheldon Rankins is a sneaky -- and necessary -- addition with D.J. Reader departing. Adding Geno Stone and bringing back Vonn Bell should do wonders for the backend of the secondary. I trust Lou Anarumo to get this unit cooking again after giving up 6.0 yards per play last year.
I definitely have some concerns with Brian Callahan leaving and how a new offensive coordinator might affect this offense, but Zac Taylor is the play-caller and Burrow is highly cerebral and involved so the transition should be fairly minimal. A full season of Burrow healthy should get Cincy back in the postseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Let's keep the theme going! Last year I correctly identified the Jaguars as a team that could miss the postseason in 2023, nailing the flip between Houston and Jacksonville. In full disclosure, I definitely didn't see it going down the way it did, with Jacksonville sitting pretty at 8-3 and utterly collapsing to close out the season.
In order to shore things up and get newly minted bajillionaire quarterback Trevor Lawrence back into the MVP chatter, the Jags went heavy at the receiver position this offseason. Jacksonville signed Gabe Davis to pair with Christian Kirk and then used a first-round pick on LSU burner Brian Thomas Jr. Davis has been banged up and Thomas is a raw rookie, but with Kirk and Evan Engram in the fold, along with Travis Etienne and second-year back Tank Bigsby in the backfield, there's no shortage of weapons for Lawrence.
Jacksonville managed to still overperform its win expectancy, with the Jags' point differential suggesting an 8.7-win team. They ended up finishing 3-4 in one-score games, so underlying statistical regression should be fairly nominal.
If you're trying to pinpoint the biggest reason to expect a bounce-back year, it might be the health of Lawrence. Last season he battled through injuries, including a mid-season knee injury and his mobility dipped pretty substantially (going from 5.5 rush attempts per game to 3.6 over the next few games) in the immediate aftermath. A high-ankle sprain later in the year saw his play drop off a cliff: Lawrence completed 67.9 percent of his passes and averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt through the first 13 weeks of the season, but completed an even 60 percent of his passes and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt down the stretch. Lawrence threw seven picks in that first stretch and then managed to throw seven more in his final four starts, all of which were losses (Lawrence didn't play in Jacksonville's lone end-of-season win, a blowout of the Panthers).
If he doesn't hurt his ankle against the Bengals, the Jaguars probably make the postseason last year. We can't predict health in the NFL, but Lawrence was extremely durable in college and in the pros until last season. I think there's a good chance we get a full season of Lawrence in the wake of his contract extension this offseason. That alone is enough to justify projecting the Jags as a playoff team in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers
If the first three picks on this list can be classified as simply a "bet on a quarterback," then you can go ahead and classify this as "a bet on a coach." Jim Harbaugh just wins. Wherever he goes, he wins. He is 144-52-1 as a college coach with stops at San Diego, Stanford and Michigan. He is 44-19-1 as an NFL head coach and took the 49ers to the NFC title game in his first three seasons (with one Super Bowl appearance as well).
(Somewhat ironically, within the time I initially wrote this "bet on Harbs" section and the actual publication of this article, we saw the Chargers deal with a quarterback injury as Justin Herbert was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis. It's not enough to get me off the Chargers -- yet -- but it's absolutely concerning, given how that type of injury can linger.)
This Chargers team isn't quite as stacked across the board as the 49ers roster was when Harbaugh took over, but Los Angeles is vastly better at a more important position, sporting an in-his-prime Herbert at quarterback. Some folks are worried the run-heavy system Harbaugh implements will neuter Herbert's explosiveness, but I would push back on that. Herbert's stats might not be as gaudy, but he'll be supremely efficient in 2024 and his downfield passing, which is some of the best in the NFL, will be lethal when paired with a vastly improved run game. If anything, Herbert was neutered last year when then-OC Kellen Moore sunk his aDOT into the basement.
Adding Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey with the first two picks of the draft are perfect fits for this system. Alt is a mountain of a man and will bookend nicely with Rashawn Slater. The McConkey Hype Train has left the station and is steaming down the tracks. He'll be an immediate-impact chain mover and maybe WR1 out of the gate for Herbert. Josh Palmer and D.J. Chark are both generating substantial training camp buzz. Losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams wasn't "good," but it's being overblown with this current system and setup.
Besides, Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz took a calculated approach to this roster: They knew major moves were inevitable and chose to make those moves on the offensive side, while keeping a high-priced pass rush featuring Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack intact. That will serve them quite well in a difficult division.
The Chargers profile is that of a bounce-back team, too, having underperformed their win expectancy (7.1 wins) by more than two full games and going 3-8 in one-score games. They were also in the top half of the league in Adjusted Games Lost. I'd probably be in on the Chargers bouncing back anyway -- mix in Harbaugh and they have a real feel of a playoff team this year.
Atlanta Falcons
The bull case for the Atlanta Falcons is pretty simple: Kirk Cousins. The 36-year-old quarterback suffered a torn Achilles last season, throwing his status with the Vikings into limbo. When Minnesota wasn't willing to commit to Cousins long term, he shopped around and the new-look Falcons, now coached by Raheem Morris, pounced on Cousins, pairing him with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Last year, then-head coach Arthur Smith drew plenty of ire from media members and Falcons fans for declining to effectively use the trio of top-10 weapons the Falcons drafted in the last few years. Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson all felt underutilized and now get a massive upgrade at quarterback from Desmond Ridder to Cousins. Michael Penix Jr. as a top 10 pick this year was highly controversial and you can quibble about not grabbing a blue-chip defensive player at eighth overall after signing Cousins, but you can also use Penix as a solid argument for the Falcons' playoff hopes. If something happens to Cousins -- and by all accounts he's way ahead of where everyone thought he'd be this offseason -- Penix is a "veteran" rookie with upside who could end up filling in successfully.
With Robinson and Cousins pulling the levers, the skill-position talent on the roster and the upper-tier offensive line, I don't really have any concerns about the Falcons offense doing their part this season.
Defensively, you can certainly ask questions about this team. But Morris has been a really, really good defensive coach in every stop of his career. I actually think he got a raw deal the first time around in Tampa. He was an incredibly young coach who found some early success (10-6 and the playoffs in his second season) but then was run out of town after going 4-12 in his third year following an implosion by Josh Freeman. Things are a lot more stable now and I'm expecting an improvement on defense.
Last year the Falcons matched their win expectancy to the exact number, but went 4-5 in one-score games, including a humiliating 9-7 egg to the Panthers late in the year, a loss that essentially rammed a final nail into the coffin of their 2023 season.
Chicago Bears
The Bears get annually hyped up as a possible playoff team, and usually I'm standing on the opposite corner yelling "Not this time!" and having tomatoes thrown at me by Bears fans. NOT TODAY, CHICAGO. The logic is pretty much the same as the Panthers from last year (ruh roh): You have a No. 1 overall pick being dropped into an environment that fostered just the ninth-worst team in football.
Now it didn't work for the Panthers, but ... it might work for the Bears. Why? Glad you asked. See, the Bears actually do have a decent, ascending offensive line in place (we maybe thought the Panthers did, that was real wrong). The Bears absolutely have actual weapons for their young quarterback, having traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze to add to D.J. Moore, who was acquired in the blockbuster trade that resulted in Carolina moving up to draft Bryce Young No. 1 overall.
Chicago's defense was great last year after the addition of Montez Sweat. I don't think the Bears will be a top five defensive unit or anything, but they could take a step forward and be above league average for the full year.
And then there's the quarterback. All due respect to Bryce Young, but Caleb Williams is a legit "generational" prospect. When the Panthers traded up for Young, people questioned it largely because someone like Williams was in the upcoming draft. The Bears are the big beneficiaries of that. And they've done everything they can to put a decent infrastructure in place for Williams. If he shows up like he did in 2022 for USC, the Bears could be a fun, fun team.
Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one to figure out because the Seahawks' underlying statistics from last year actually indicate they might be a team likely to take a step back. But coaching matters and -- all due respect to Pete Carroll -- it's possible this new coaching staff led by Mike Macdonald is ready to really implement a new plan.
Ryan Grubb is a fascinating offensive coordinator for this group, coming from Washington where it operated a high-powered offense with three stud wide receivers. Hello DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Tight end Noah Fant is getting a little slept on too given his age and athletic profile. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are a swell backfield. And there's good buzz about Charles Cross coming out of camp re: taking a big leap forward at left tackle. Geno Smith is better than people think and if he deals with any kind of injury I like the fit for Sam Howell. In other words, the offense could be awesome.
It's been a hot minute since the Seahawks were great on defense and while there's no guarantee Macdonald is immediately a great hire as a head coach, I feel pretty confident about his ability to maximize this defense by moving guys all over the place and doing the same things he did in Baltimore. I'm particularly pumped about seeing what Devon Witherspoon is going to do this year. The Seahawks might just be the most sneaky fun team in football in 2024.