One thing that makes the NFL so entertaining every year is the fact that it's one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet, and nothing proves that more than the league's ability to produce at least one team every season that goes from worst to first.
Last year, that team was the Houston Texans. After finishing with an ugly record of 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans rebounded in a big way in 2023 by winning the AFC South. Their poor record two years ago allowed them to land CJ Stroud in the 2023 draft and he was a big reason why they were able to turn things around so quickly.
Since 2015, there have been a total of 10 teams that have followed up a last-place finish with a division-winning run the following season, and for those of you who aren't good at math, that's an average of just over one per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the past two decades: Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been 29 teams that have gone from worst to first, which is an average of 1.32 teams per year over that 22-season span.
Basically, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from worst to first this year, and because we love ranking things here, we're going to rank the eight last-place finishers from 2023 to find out who has the best chance to be this year's Texans.
Ranking teams most likely to go from worst to first
(All division odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
8. New England Patriots
2023 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC East: +2500
They have a new head coach, a new starting QB and they also have what might possibly be the worst roster in the NFL. Not to mention, they're stuck in a division that has three Super Bowl contenders. Basically, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Patriots win the AFC East this year. As a matter of fact, it's hard to envision a scenario where they even finish with seven wins.
You never want to say a team has zero chance of winning its division in the always unpredictable NFL, but it really feels like the Patriots have a zero chance of winning the division. They're either going to be starting a rookie quarterback (Drake Maye) or a journeyman quarterback (Jacoby Brissett) and neither of those are great options when you also look at the offensive line that they'll be playing behind. Since I ranked them last, that means I'm 99.9% sure they won't win the division this year. As a matter of fact, I'm so confident they won't that if it does happen, I will buy a Drake Maye jersey and wear it every Sunday for an entire year.
Fun fact: The Patriots have only gone worst-to-first one time in franchise history and it's a season that everyone in New England probably remembers. After finishing dead last in the AFC East in 2000, the Patriots bounced back to not only win the division in 2001, but they also ended winning the Super Bowl, so the good news for this year's team is that they now know it's not impossible to go from last place to the Super Bowl.
7. Arizona Cardinals
2023 record: 4-13
Odds to win NFC West: +1300
The Cardinals finished with one of the worst records in the NFL last year, but that was mostly because Kyler Murray missed more than half the season. Once he was back on the field for the second half of the year, the Cardinals actually played pretty well down the stretch, which included two wins over teams that eventually made the playoffs (Eagles, Steelers).
Even with Murray, though, it's hard to imagine the Cardinals breaking through to win the the most difficult division in the NFC. The 49ers, Rams and Seahawks all finished with a winning record last season and it's hard to envision any of those three teams taking a big step back this year, which means the Cardinals will have to take a huge step forward if they want to catch them. A jump up to third place -- or even second place -- seems possible, but it just doesn't feel like this roster is good enough to steal the NFC West.
Fun fact: Over the past 26 years, the Cardinals have finished in last a total of 11 times and they have failed to go from worst to first even a single time during that span, so I wouldn't bet on it happening this year. Not only have they not gone worst to first recently, but they've actually never done it in their franchise history, which dates back to 1920.
6. Tennessee Titans
2023 record: 6-11
Odds to win AFC South: +1000
The Titans have quietly improved their roster this offseason by adding several key players on offense like Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard, plus, they used a first-round pick on offensive tackle JC Latham. Not to mention, Brian Callahan also beefed up his defense by adding players like L'Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, Quandre Diggs, Arden Key and Kenneth Murray. Oh, and they also drafted T'Vondre Sweat.
This team is absolutely better than it was last year, but that's not saying much, considering the Titans won just six games in 2023. On paper, the Titans still aren't a great team by any means, but the good news for the Titans is that you don't have to be great to win the AFC South. The Texans won the division last season with just 10 wins and that feels like the number that will probably once again take the division crown in 2024. If the Titans are going to get anywhere near 10 wins, they're going to need a breakout season from Will Levis, who flashed at times last year in his nine starts, but he also struggled some during his time on the field. The Titans are probably at least a year away from competing for an AFC South title, which is why they're near the bottom of this list.
Fun fact: If history is any indication, the Titans are in trouble, because they've NEVER gone worst-to-first in franchise history, and that even includes their 37 seasons as the Houston Oilers.
5. Carolina Panthers
2023 record: 2-15
Odds to win NFC South: +1100
The Panthers had the worst record in the NFL last season, so you might be thinking that they're ranked too high here. However, I should probably point out that they're ranked this high for one reason and one reason only: They play in the most winnable division in the NFL.
Although most of the other last-place team will likely have to win double-digit games if they want to win their division this year, that's likely not going to be the case in the NFC South. It only took eight games to win this division in 2022 and things weren't much better in 2023 with the Buccaneers taking home the division title after going just 9-8. Basically, if the Panthers can get to nine wins, that might be enough to win the division.
The Panthers have hired a QB-friendly coach in Dave Canales and they've surrounded Bryce Young with several new weapons, including Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. If Young can take a big leap during his second year on the field, that could put the Panthers in a position to surprise a lot of people in 2024.
Fun fact: The last time the Panthers went worst-to-first was also the only time in franchise history. After a last place finish in 2002, they shocked everyone by winning the NFC South in 2003 and riding that division title ALL THE WAY to the Super Bowl.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
2023 record: 5-12
Odds to win AFC West: +350
If the Chargers are going to go worst-to-first this year, that means they're going to have to figure out a way to knock off the Chiefs, which no one in the AFC West has been able to do for nearly a decade. Not only have the Chiefs won eight straight division titles, but they've gone 17-3 in their past 20 meetings against the Chargers.
That being said, if anyone can figure out how to knock off the Chiefs, it's the one NFL head coach who drinks more milk than anyone alive: Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers new coach has a career winning percentage of .695, which is the fifth-highest in NFL history. He likely wouldn't have taken this job unless he thought he could actually win and he has the quarterback to do it in Justin Herbert. The problem for Harbaugh, though, is that a quarterback is about all he has on offense. Most of the Chargers' skill players are question marks at this point and when you have a lot of question marks, it's not easy to knock a team like the Chiefs off their perch.
The Chargers might not win the division this year, but it won't be surprising if Harbaugh gets them over the hump at some point in the near future.
Fun fact: The Chargers seem to thrive whenever they hire a new coach, at least for a year. Jim Harbaugh is the seventh coach the Chargers have hired since 1999, and the six previous coaches all finished .500 or better during their first season with the team.
3. Washington Commanders
2023 record: 4-13
Odds to win NFC East: +900
Last year's worst-to-first team was the Houston Texans, which feels kind of notable here, because if any team could be this year's Texans, it's the Washington Commanders. Washington is in a somewhat similar situation that Houston was in last year: The Commanders have a new coach and they have a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels) who was taken with the second overall pick this year, just like the Texans did with CJ Stroud last season.
If Daniels looks just half as good as Stroud, there's no reason the Commanders can't compete for the NFC East title. Speaking of that division, the other thing working in Washington's favor is that the rest of the division is a train wreck. The Eagles suffered a total collapse to close out the 2023 season and it remains to be seen how they'll rebound from that. The Cowboys roster isn't as good as it was last year and let's not forget that CeeDee Lamb skipped all of training camp. Oh, and All-Pro corner DaRon Bland is going to miss some time due to an injury. And then there's the Giants, who are rolling with Daniel Jones again despite having five years of evidence that Jones probably isn't their guy.
This division feels wide open, so there's no reason the Commanders can't steal it.
Fun fact: The Commanders have gone from worst to first a total of three times since 2010, which is tied for the most of any team in the NFL over that span.
2. Chicago Bears
2023 record: 7-10
Odds to win NFC North: +280
It's not often that the No. 1 overall pick lands with a team that has a loaded offense, that that's exactly what's happening with Caleb Williams in Chicago. With D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, Williams is set to become the first top-five pick ever to spend his rookie season throwing to two receivers who both finished with a least 1,200 yards the prior year. Not to mention, the Bears also added Rome Odunze. Basically, Williams has been given the keys to a Ferrari and all he has to do is not crash it.
if Williams shows off the talent that made him the top QB prospect in the draft, the Bears could be a dangerous team in 2024.
The Bears went 2-4 in divisional games last season, but three of those four losses came by just one score, which means they were on the cusp of being good. Adding Williams could be the thing that puts them over the top.
Williams is definitely going to add some fireworks to a Bears offense that has NEVER had a QB finish with 30 touchdown passes or 4,000 passing yards in a season. There's a good chance Williams will end both of those droughts this year, and if he does, he'll likely have Chicago competing for a playoff spot, if not a division title.
Fun fact: The Bears definitely know a little something about going from worst to first and that's because they pulled it off just six years ago. After going 5-11 in 2017, they rebounded with a 12-4 division-winning record in 2018.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2022 record: 9-8
Odds to win AFC North: +145
Putting the Bengals at the top of this list was an easy choice and that's mostly because they have a fully healthy Joe Burrow for the first time in what feels like forever. Whenever Burrow's been healthy, the Bengals have been dominant: They've made it to the AFC title game in every season where he's started at least 11 games.
Even with Burrow missing seven games last year, the Bengals still managed to finish with a winning record (9-8).
The Bengals did have to deal with some drama this year in the form of Ja'Marr Chase, who sat out every practice during training camp in hopes of getting a new contract. Although Chase doesn't yet have a new deal, he's now back at practice, which is a huge, because it's hard to imagine the Bengals winning the division without him.
If the Bengals are going to win the AFC North, one thing they're going to have to figure out how to do is win divisional games. They went just 1-5 against divisional opponents last season and they're just 9-15 overall since Burrow's rookie year in 2020. The Bengals get to play a last place schedule, so if they can go just 3-3 in the division, that should put them in a good spot to win the AFC North for the third time in four years.
Fun fact: The Bengals have made it to the Super Bowl three times in franchise history and each time it happened, it came in a year where they went from worst-to-first.
Super Bowl fun fact: Of the 29 teams that have gone worst to first since 2002, only four of them have made it to the Super Bowl, so although it's possible, it's definitely not likely.
