The NFL regular season is upon us, and the race for Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year begins in earnest. Will a quarterback put a team on his back and quickly ascend into the elite tier as C.J. Stroud did a year ago? On defense, will an edge rusher race away with the award or can a cornerback produce a worthy campaign?
Here are my favorites to win each award, plus a sleeper (which is characterized as +2500 odds or steeper):
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Saturday afternoon.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
- QB Caleb Williams, Bears: +140
- QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders: +500
- QB Bo Nix, Broncos: +950
- WR Malik Nabers, Giants: +1500
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals: +750
Quarterbacks should always be viewed as the favorite for the award when opportunity meets talent. There were a record six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and three have been named Week 1 starters for their respective teams. J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) suffered a season-ending injury, veteran Jacoby Brissett was named the starter over rookie Drake Maye in New England, and Michael Penix Jr. will sit behind Kirk Cousins in Atlanta. The three rookies starting should all be among the favorites to win the award, particularly those who can also accumulate yardage with their legs. Given the talent around him and potential to compete for an NFC playoff berth, Williams seems like the safest bet at this point.
The exception to the quarterback rule is supreme talent. The odds difference between Nabers and Harrison is staggering. Both should lead their teams in targets and Arizona may have a better collection of receiver talent with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride saddling Harrison. Nabers is more apt to make splashy plays that voters will remember.
Sleeper: WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars: +5000
Thomas has made some big-time plays down the field in both training camp and the preseason. With Calvin Ridley gone, there is no reason to believe Thomas cannot ascend into the role of Trevor Lawrence's primary target. If that happens and none of the quarterbacks emerge, then he is tremendous value.
Penix (+12500) is worth a flyer as well. If Cousins were to get hurt and Penix plays the majority of the season, then he should have a shot considering the quality offensive line and collection of skill players.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- EDGE Dallas Turner, Vikings (+450)
- EDGE Laiatu Latu, Colts (+400)
- EDGE Jared Verse, Rams (+950)
- CB Terrion Arnold, Lions (+1200)
- LB Payton Wilson, Steelers (+2600)
In six of the past eight years, players able to accumulate nine-plus sacks in a season have often been in pole position when it comes to winning the award. Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Shaquille Leonard have been able to win the award with seven sacks. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Marshon Lattimore won it the other two years. From a statistical perspective, it is more difficult for cornerbacks to construct a case for the award, even when their quality of play suggests that they deserve consideration.
It was a unique year considering the first defensive prospect did not come off the board until the Colts selected Latu No. 15 overall. Turner is the favorite, in my opinion, because of defensive coordinator Brian Flores' aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme. Latu is the most refined of the bunch, however, and should be a strong contender for the award.
The Lions have a wealth of talent along the front seven and pressure should be easily applied. Arnold may be in a position to capitalize on the back end. In his final season at Alabama, he registered five interceptions and ball production often translates.
The case for Wilson is that he accumulates 100-plus tackles and mixes in some turnover-worthy plays here and there for a Steelers defense that is among the best in the league.
Sleeper: CB Kamari Lassiter, Texans: +6600
Lassiter will be playing on a defense that should be much improved up front. Similar to Arnold, if he gets opportunities to intercept a few passes and capitalizes, then his case will build itself.
A few other sleepers include Bears edge rusher Austin Booker (+5000) and Broncos edge rusher Jonah Elliss (+8000). Both flashed during the preseason. If they cross that seven sack threshold, then they will be in the hunt for defensive honors.
