Week 15 was one for the history books -- literally. The Buffalo Bills became the second team in NFL history to allow 40 points in consecutive games, while Jared Goff became the first quarterback in NFL history to lose a game while throwing for 400 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Davante Adams' 198 receiving yards in the second half vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars were the most in a second half since Irving Fryar in 1994, and the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans matchup was the first game in NFL history to feature 10 combined turnovers and 26 combined penalties. Gross, but also a bit exciting.
Some were disappointed by how this seemingly-epic slate turned out, but Week 15 may have actually been more important than you think. A quarterback in Tennessee may have lost his job for good, Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an injury and we have reason to be concerned about the Los Angeles Chargers. The game of the week was still Bills at Lions, and I want to start there. How worried should we be about Detroit after all that occurred on Sunday?
1. How worried should we be about the Lions?
The Bills and Lions are arguably the two best teams in the NFL, but I'm still shocked at how this one went down. I don't care that the final score was 48-42; it felt like the Bills dominated this matchup from beginning to end.
The Lions were at home with extended rest hosting a Bills defense that was absolutely demolished by the quarterback Detroit traded away a few years ago. Buffalo suffered numerous notable injuries in that Week 14 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions were surely going to win this game since the Bills were without their top cornerback and both of their starting safeties, right? Wrong.
The Lions were the better team on paper, too. I even looked at these two squads position by position. The only areas where I thought the Bills had the advantage (on paper) were at quarterback, linebacker and cornerback. Maybe I should have put running back as well. Who saw Ty Johnson leading Buffalo with 114 receiving yards on five catches and James Cook bouncing back with 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns?
We could talk about how having the better quarterback means everything in a matchup, but I was taken aback by this Lions defense. Buffalo punted just once all game, and that punt came halfway through the third quarter. The Bills offense racked up 559 yards of total offense, 28 first downs and went 5 of 7 in the red zone. Buffalo basically had just ONE unsuccessful possession in terms of the offense setting itself up for points. This defense belongs to the best team in the NFL? The Super Bowl favorites?
There's reason to believe the Lions defense will look like that for the rest of the year -- and maybe worse. Detroit lost several important players for the season due to injury on Sunday. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill (ACL), cornerback Carlton Davis (jaw), cornerback Khalil Dorsey (leg) and running back David Montgomery (MCL) are all headed to injured reserve.
McNeill is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league, Davis is Detroit's top corner, and we all know what Montgomery provides for the offense. The Lions will soon have more than 20 players on injured reserve as they continue on their mission to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I mean, look at some of these names:
Lions without McNeill, Montgomery and Davis
From SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh:
| Lions | Wins | Division | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
With McNeil, Montgomery and Davis | 14.0 | 80.5% | 34.9% | 14.5% |
Without | 13.9 | 76.6% | 21.3% | 10.8% |
Difference | -0.1 | -3.9% | -13.6% | -3.7% |
It surprised me to see the Lions were still co-Super Bowl favorites on Monday, and I would bet these odds change in the coming days. I don't think the Lions are even the best team in their conference moving forward.
The Philadelphia Eagles have now won a franchise-record 10 straight games. During this win streak, they rank No. 1 in scoring defense (15.1 points per game allowed), total defense (239.5 yards allowed per game) and sacks (33). This team just out-gained the Pittsburgh Steelers 401 yards to 163 yards. The Eagles passing game finally took off as well, as Jalen Hurts completed 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith crossed 100 yards receiving and caught touchdowns.
So yes. I am worried about the Lions with their defensive performance and all of the injuries. It's the Eagles who I like more in the NFC.
NFC simulations: Eagles vs. Lions
From SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh:
| Win conference | Win Super Bowl | |
|---|---|---|
Eagles | 27.8% | 12.2% |
Lions | 22.2% | 10.8% |
2. Ranking non-QB Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates
I know the quarterback is the most important position in football, but I hate how their importance overshadows everything else. Why can't an offensive tackle win MVP? What about a wide receiver? Defensive Rookie of the Year may be the most objective award we have.
I want to talk about Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are the two favorites, and you can understand why. But let's pretend there's a "Rookie Quarterback of the Year" award. Who would win "Offensive Rookie of the Year" in that case? Let's take a look:
Honorable mentions: WR Ladd McConkey, OT Joe Alt, RB Bucky Irving
1. TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
I passed on taking Bowers in EVERY fantasy league because I knew he didn't have a quarterback and an offensive coordinator that was going to be fired before year's end. I was correct on both counts, but wrong in doubting Bowers would be an immediate star. Bowers leads all rookies AND tight ends in receiving yards with 968. He already broke the rookie tight end receptions record set last year by Sam LaPorta, and needs 16 more catches to steal Puka Nacua's rookie receptions record.
2. WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Give credit to BTJ for doing what he's doing with a disappointing Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones as his quarterbacks. Thomas caught 10 passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns this past Sunday vs. the New York Jets, bringing his season totals up to 64 receptions for 956 yards and eight touchdowns. All of those numbers either rank best or tied for best among all first-year players in Jaguars franchise history. So, Thomas is already the best Jaguars rookie wideout of all-time. The LSU product is a smooth route runner who is also a big target and can provide some spark after the catch as well. He's going to be Lawrence's No. 1 wideout for years to come.
3. WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Like Thomas, Nabers has had to suffer through some terrible quarterback play in New York. Still, he caught 10 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown in the blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday. Nabers' 90 receptions are the second-most through 12 career games since 1970 (trailing only Odell Beckham Jr.), so at least the Giants are force-feeding him the ball. Nabers' 140 targets rank second in the NFL behind CeeDee Lamb. When the Giants get a quarterback, Nabers could end up being one of the best pass-catchers in the league.