This past week was a fun one. The Kansas City Chiefs clinched the AFC West for the ninth straight season with the "doink for the division," the Buffalo Bills fell another game back of the Chiefs after losing a shootout to the Los Angeles Rams and the Tennessee Titans failed to score a single touchdown against the worst defense in the league, which took the Jacksonville Jaguars out of position to "win" the No. 1 overall pick.
Last week we discussed how the Carolina Panthers should roll with Bryce Young in 2025. He had another solid outing vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, and threw what could have been a game-winning touchdown that was dropped by rookie Xavier Legette. This week, I'd like to talk about the division race that's getting no attention, and then who is for real in the NFC West.
1. Are the Texans in trouble of losing division?
Maybe I can't pick every game correctly, but one thing I've done a good job with this year is addressing topics that people aren't talking about for one reason or another. As I discussed two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were +400 to win the NFC South. Now, they lead the division and are -250! Let's talk about the other "South" for a minute, because I don't think most people realize how close the AFC South race is.
This is a two-team race between the Texans and Indianapolis Colts. The Texans sit at 8-5 while the Colts are 6-7, and Houston has already swept the season series vs. Indy as well. BetMGM currently has the Texans listed at -3000 to win the division, and the Colts at +1100. Are those odds fair? Have you looked at the remaining schedules for these two teams?
| Week | Texans schedule | Colts schedule |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | vs. Miami Dolphins | |
| 16 | at Kansas City Chiefs | vs. Tennessee Titans |
| 17 | vs. Baltimore Ravens | |
| 18 | at Tennessee Titans | vs. Jacksonville Jaguars |
As you can see, the Texans' remaining schedule is much tougher. Tankathon lists it as the 11th-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, while the Colts have the third-easiest remaining schedule. The way I look at it, this conversation we're having is meaningless if the Colts lose in Denver this upcoming Sunday. Indy needs to win out, which is possible, while the Texans need to lose at least three out of their final four contests -- which I also think is possible.
The Dolphins are a better team than their record indicates, but Tua Tagovailoa is 1-2 on the road this year. The Chiefs and Ravens are legitimate contenders as we know, and then the Titans host Houston in the Week 18 finale. Remember, Tennessee upset the Texans in Houston just a few weeks ago, and kept the Jaguars out of the playoffs last year by defeating them in the final game of the season right before firing coach Mike Vrabel. Anything is possible.
Ultimately, it's more likely than not the Texans win the AFC South for the second straight year -- but it's not a given. I'll be interested to see how the odds shift if the Colts can get past the Broncos on Sunday.
Postseason chances (via SportsLine)
| Texans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
Chance to win division | 97.4% | 2.6% |
Chance to make playoffs | 98% | 16% |
2. Who's the real deal in the NFC West?
Rams
The Rams and Bills combined for 86 points, 12 touchdowns, 902 yards and zero turnovers in L.A.'s 44-42 victory on Sunday. It was the most "explosive" game of the NFL season so far. When this Rams offense is humming, it's fun to watch and tough to stop. Matthew Stafford is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Kyren Williams has scored 14 touchdowns in 13 games and then Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are quite the dynamic duo out wide. Stafford has thrown for 733 yards and seven touchdowns when targeting Nacua or Kupp over the last four games. They're playing well.
I also like the Rams' young defensive front -- so much so I dubbed L.A. the "1-2 team to watch" in late September. Jared Verse is a favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year and Braden Fiske looks like a great pick as well, but the fact of the matter is this Rams defense ranks sixth-worst in total defense (366.1 yards allowed per game) and ranks bottom 10 in scoring defense with 25.5 points allowed per game. Yes, Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but this Rams defense allowed six touchdowns and forced zero turnovers. Before Sunday, teams that scored six touchdowns and committed zero turnovers were undefeated!
If the Rams are going to be contenders, they may have to straight-up outscore their opponents -- whether that's scoring 30 points or 44 points. Ultimately, it doesn't seem sustainable, but Sean McVay's offense is a force to be reckoned with.
Seahawks
The Seahawks have gone from last place in the NFC West to first place, and they are riding a four-game win streak after going 1-5 in their previous six contests. Zach Charbonnet was the star of the show on Sunday vs. the Arizona Cardinals, as he rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns in place of Kenneth Walker III. Kyler Murray threw two interceptions on back-to-back possessions in the first quarter, and Seattle quickly jumped out to a 17-7 lead it was able to hold on to.
The Seahawks offense can be inconsistent. Walker has had some great performances and Jaxon Smith-Njigba currently ranks fifth in the NFL with 911 receiving yards. However, the reason Seattle finds itself on this win streak is thanks to its defense. Mike Macdonald's unit is allowing 15.5 points per game over the last four contests after allowing 29.7 points per game over the previous six games. The question is can the Seahawks continue to play like they have been down the stretch against tough opponents like the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings? Then come the Rams in the regular-season finale. L.A. defeated Seattle in Week 9.
Verdict
The Rams currently trail the Seahawks in the standings, but they are poised to rebound and win the division. L.A. has an easier schedule than Seattle down the stretch. The Rams play the 49ers in San Francisco on Thursday, are at the New York Jets in Week 16, and play host to the Cardinals in Week 17 and Seattle in the regular-season finale. The Seahawks on the other hand play host to the Packers and Vikings in back-to-back weeks, then travel to Chicago to play the Bears before the Week 18 showdown with the Rams.
It may come down to the Rams offense -- and that offense remaining healthy. Stafford is 11-5 with 4,381 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions in the last two seasons when he, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all play.