Some massive storylines came out of NFL Week 7. Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles and will miss the remainder of the 2024 season, Saquon Barkley outgained his former team all by himself, Russell Wilson blew out the New York Jets and Marcus Mariota dominated the Carolina Panthers. Who saw all of that coming?
This week, I want to discuss a few important topics: Does C.J. Stroud have a problem playing on the road? The borderline ridiculous NFL MVP market and what it should really look like, and how the Panthers are even worse than you think. What will happen next with them? Let's jump in.
1. Does C.J. Stroud have a road problem?
A friend texted me last week asking why the Houston Texans were three-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. This was expected to be one of the best games of the week. Three points is a lot for two pretty evenly matched teams.
I responded eloquently, saying "Stroud has a weird road thing." It's actually something I've been thinking about for some time now. Then on Sunday, Stroud completed 10 of 21 passes for 86 yards in a two-point loss. His 86 passing yards marked a career low, and just 34 came when targeting receivers. So, does Stroud have a road problem? The numbers may surprise you:
Stroud career splits
| Win-loss | Passing yards per game | TDs | INTs | Passer rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home | 9-2 | 311.1 | 21 | 5 | 106.3 |
Away | 5-6 | 213.5 | 12 | 4 | 90.5 |
Stroud averages 97.6 more passing yards per game at home than on the road. According to CBS Sports Research, that's the biggest gap by any quarterback since the merger (min. 10 starts at home and road). Stroud has crossed 300 passing yards on the road just once, and has four road starts where he failed to throw a single touchdown. He's thrown at least one touchdown in every home start.
Houston is 5-2 on the year, and both losses came on the road. The Texans were blown out by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, 34-7, and of course lost to the Packers on Sunday, 24-22. Overall, the Texans are 2-2 away from Houston this season, scraping by the Indianapolis Colts, 29-27, in the season opener, and defeating the lowly New England Patriots by 20 points in Week 6. But remember last year? Bryce Young of all quarterbacks outdueled Stroud in Week 8, and then there was that terrible 30-6 loss to the Jets in Week 14 where Stroud was injured.
So, does Stroud have a problem playing on the road? I think it's too early to say, but the numbers don't lie. At the same time, it's easy to defend him. Stroud was of course playing his first NFL season in 2023, and then didn't have Nico Collins on Sunday, while the Packers applied pressure on him virtually every dropback. Still, this is something to keep an eye on.
2. Our non-QB MVPs
Isn't it a bit annoying that NFL MVP is a quarterback award? Yes, quarterback is the most important and toughest position in football, but how we view "most valuable player" feels a bit warped. For example, entering Monday night, Patrick Mahomes was the betting favorite to win MVP. The same Patrick Mahomes that just posted his worst passer rating in a start ever (44.4), and has thrown six touchdowns compared to a league-leading eight interceptions. That's an MVP favorite right now?
Let's create a "best quarterback" award that will be separate from MVP. Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson can fight for that. If I were choosing some non-QB candidates for NFL MVP as we enter Week 8, here are three players I would argue for:
Derrick Henry
What "King Henry" is doing for the Baltimore Ravens at 30 years old is historical. Through seven weeks, he leads the league in rushing attempts (134), rushing yards (873) and is tied in having the most rushing touchdowns (8). Henry is the first player to ever lead or co-lead in those categories through seven weeks. Henry is averaging a league-leading 124.7 rushing yards per game, and is on pace to break the NFL record for most rushing yards in a season. He's hit 2,000 yards rushing in 16 games before. Don't doubt him. Henry has also shown he can still break off big runs. In fact, he owns the two longest rushes this season with a 87- and 81-yard runs.
Saquon Barkley
Imagine what the Philadelphia Eagles offense would look like without Barkley. Philly's passing offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, while its rushing offense ranks second in the NFL -- just behind the Ravens. Barkley is fresh off of a successful revenge game against the New York Giants, rushing for 176 yards and one touchdown while averaging 10.4 yards per attempt. Barkley's 658 rushing yards this season are the most by an Eagle in the first six games of a season, and Adrian Peterson is the only other player over the last 50 years to rush for 600 yards while averaging 6 yards per rush in a player's first six games with a team. Barkley has crossed 100 yards rushing in three of six games played. The Eagles won all three of those games.
Dexter Lawrence
How about a big man for MVP favorite? Aidan Hutchinson would probably top my MVP list if he did not suffer a serious leg injury last week. It's now Lawrence who is the NFL's sack leader, as the 27-year-old has racked up a whopping nine sacks in seven games played.
The 2-5 Giants aren't losing games because of their defense, and Lawrence has been playing his butt off this year. He's wreaking havoc on offensive lines, and disrupting quarterbacks' rhythm. We give a lot of attention to the pass rushers/defensive ends, but just ask Tom Brady, the one spot you don't want to feel pressure is up the middle. Lawrence also has 13 QB hits, which is tied for fourth in the NFL, and most among interior defensive linemen.
3. The Panthers are terrible. What happens next?
Now to bring your attention to something that I don't think is being talked about enough. The Panthers were the laughing stock of the league through two weeks, but then Bryce Young was benched and replaced by Andy Dalton. The veteran led Carolina to a 36-22 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, but things have gone downhill since then.
NFL fans know the Panthers are "bad," but I don't think they realize how bad. Carolina has now lost four straight games by double digits, and these aren't all 10-point losses. The Panthers were just blown out by the Jayden Daniels-less Washington Commanders on Sunday, 40-7. Check out these historical numbers:
- The Panthers have allowed at least 34 points in four consecutive games. That's the longest streak in franchise history
- The Panthers have allowed 20 points in the first half in six out of seven games this year
- The Panthers are the first team in NFL history to trail by 20 points at halftime in four out of their first seven games of the season
- Carolina has been outscored by 133 points over its first seven games. That's the fifth-worst point margin since 2000
Through seven weeks, the Panthers rank fourth-worst in total offense, and fifth-worst in scoring offense. It's a nightmare on the other side of the ball, as Carolina ranks third-worst in total defense, dead last in run defense and last in scoring defense as well.
Where do the Panthers go from here? Is Carolina on 1-15 watch? Is it possible Dave Canales could be a one-and-done coach? That would be pretty wild after Carolina fired Frank Reich 12 games into the season last year. But the Panthers brought in this supposed QB whisperer to get Young on the right track. He looked worse than ever in Canales' scheme, and had to be benched after just two games. Do they give both Young and Canales another shot? Do they give Canales another season with Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders and move on from Young?
What will happen before all of these offseason hypotheticals is that the Panthers will part ways with players. Carolina already released veteran defensive back Troy Hill, and could part ways with a couple of other players such as wide receiver Diontae Johnson at the trade deadline. It's tough, because how can fans hope things will get better from where Carolina sits right now? We aren't even halfway through the season. Think about that.
I think it's going to be fascinating to see what Carolina does this offseason. The 2023 season was an abject failure, and things haven't gotten any better with a new coach and new general manager. How will they defend their decisions and their roster? What's their game plan moving forward? Our friends and loved ones in Charlotte do not deserve this!