The Chicago Bears will be one of the most talked-about teams in the NFL this upcoming season. They drafted former USC quarterback Caleb Williams No. 1 overall, while the front office worked to surround him with talent at receiver and running back.
While Williams is playing in his first-ever NFL game this week, his Bears are favored by four points over the Tennessee Titans. Only three other NFL teams are favored by more points in Week 1! It's the largest Week 1 spread for a rookie quarterback in his first start since Terry Bradshaw back in 1970. Even if Williams is indeed this generational signal-caller many expect him to be, that doesn't mean he's a lock to win his first NFL game. In fact, history is not on his side.
The last 15 quarterbacks to be selected No. 1 overall have a combined record of 0-14-1 in their first career starts. The last quarterback selected No. 1 overall to win his first start was David Carr in 2002. Here's a look at how the past 15 No. 1 overall quarterbacks fared in their debuts:
| QB | Stats | Result |
|---|---|---|
Bryce Young (Panthers) | 20-38, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs | L 24-10 to Falcons |
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | 28-51, 332 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs | L 37-21 to Texans |
Joe Burrow (Bengals) | 23-36, 193 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT | L 16-13 to Chargers |
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | 29-54, 308 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT | T 27-27 with Lions |
Baker Mayfield (Browns) | 21-41, 295 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs | L 45-42 to Raiders |
Jared Goff (Rams) | 17-31, 134 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs | L 14-10 to Dolphins |
Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) | 16-33, 210 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs | L 42-14 to Titans |
Andrew Luck (Colts) | 23-45, 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs | L 41-21 to Bears |
Cam Newton (Panthers) | 24-37, 422 yards, 2 TDs 1 INT | L 28-21 to Cardinals |
Sam Bradford (Rams) | 32-55, 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs | L 17-13 to Cardinals |
Matthew Stafford (Lions) | 16-37, 205 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs | L 45-27 to Saints |
JaMarcus Russell (Raiders) | 23-31, 224 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT | L 30-17 to Chargers |
Alex Smith (49ers) | 9-23, 74 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs | L 28-3 to Colts |
Eli Manning (Chargers/Giants) | 17-37, 162 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs | L 14-10 to Falcons |
Carson Palmer (Bengals) | 18-27, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT | L 31-24 to Jets |
While history is not on Williams' side, he certainly has a chance to break the streak. He will have the benefit of a raucous environment that will make life tough on the other young quarterback, Tennessee's Will Levis, who is leading a new offense implemented by a first-year head coach. Williams is also the first top-five rookie quarterback to inherit two receivers coming off 1,200-yard seasons in Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. And then Chicago drafted Rome Odunze No. 9 overall after he led the nation in receiving yards last year with Washington.
Still, you'll have to forgive me if I take the points with Tennessee.