Entering Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season, only one team remains undefeated: The Kansas City Chiefs. No one's ever really doubted the reigning Super Bowl champions, but it's fair to wonder how sustainable their latest win streak really is, considering the unusually middling numbers from star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and a slew of injuries to some of the team's most prominent skill weapons.
More specifically, how much longer can the Chiefs stay unbeaten? And what are the chances this group becomes the first NFL team since the 2007 New England Patriots to finish the regular season undefeated?
Sportsline's data scientist Stephen Oh crunched the numbers to give us an idea.
Right now, the Chiefs (6-0) have just a 0.56% chance of going undefeated, according to SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game thousands of times. With each victory, their chances obviously increase, but the model suggests Kansas City goes from a pipe dream to a legitimate possibility as a 17-0 team if/when Mahomes and Co. beat the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 11. That, of course, presumes the Chiefs win each of their three games before then.
Why? Because only two of the Chiefs' remaining 11 opponents are projected to have more than a 50% chance of beating the reigning champs.
And here's another wild card: What if Mahomes, who's somehow thrown more picks than touchdowns during this six-game win streak, rediscovers his form? What if the addition of DeAndre Hopkins stabilizes the injury-plagued receiving corps? Or rookie Xavier Worthy showcases his speed more consistently? Or longtime tight end Travis Kelce kicks back into high gear as a high-volume chain-mover? Stephen Oh has also run the simulations accounting for Mahomes and Kelce returning to top-tier Fantasy production, and all of a sudden the 17-0 forecast gets an even bigger bump.
Here's how the Chiefs' chances of going undefeated increase with each and every game, along with their projected win % for each matchup, accounting for the possibilities of both Mahomes and Kelce continuing on their current trajectories or returning to elite production:
Note: The "Improved" marks account for Mahomes and Kelce becoming QB1 and TE1 in Fantasy, respectively, as opposed to QB22 and TE20, as they are currently.
| Week | Opponent | Win % (Now) | Win % (Improved) | 17-0 (Now) | 17-0 (Improved) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | @ Raiders | 73 | 81 | 0.77 | 2.67 |
9 | 64 | 72 | 1.20 | 1.04 | |
10 | 68 | 76 | 1.76 | 4.88 | |
11 | @ Bills | 40 | 48 | 4.41 | 10.17 |
12 | @ Panthers | 76 | 84 | 5.80 | 12.10 |
13 | Raiders | 79 | 87 | 7.34 | 13.91 |
14 | 70 | 78 | 10.49 | 17.84 | |
15 | @ Browns | 64 | 72 | 16.39 | 24.78 |
16 | 66 | 74 | 24.84 | 33.48 | |
17 | @ Steelers | 46 | 54 | 54 | 62 |
18 | @ Broncos | 54 | 62 | 100 | 100 |