Falcons-Packers predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 3 picks and ranking 2-0 teams

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I know it's not easy to get fired up to watch an 0-2 team, but you better start getting excited about watching the Falcons tonight and that's mainly because we're going to be stuck watching them in primetime for the next three weeks. After tonight, the Falcons will be on Monday night in Week 4 against the Saints and Sunday night in Week 5 against the Ravens. Maybe the NFL will show us some mercy and flex them out of the Sunday night game.  

With the Falcons at 0-2, we decided to rank every 0-2 team based on who should be the most worried heading into Week 3. Not only do we have that today, but we also have some picks and best bets for tonight's game .

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.  

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Falcons at Packers

The third week of the NFL season will be kicking off in Green Bay and it's going to feature the season debut of Michael Penix Jr.. The Falcons quarterback didn't play in Week 1 or Week 2 because he was still recovering from the torn ACL that he suffered last November, but now he's fully healthy and ready to go. The Falcons' QB situation has been a nightmare this year and they'll be hoping Penix can fix that. 

Atlanta hasn't won a game at Lambeau Field in 18 years, so it probably won't surprise you to hear that the Falcons (0-2) are a 5.5-point underdog to the Packers (1-1). 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Falcons can win: A big reason the Falcons are 0-2 is because they can't stop turning the ball over. They've turned the ball over a total of seven times through two games, which is two more than any other team. If the Falcons can protect the ball, that will give them a chance to stay in the game. Staying in the game is the first step toward winning. The second step is giving the ball to Bijan Robinson as often as possible. If they can get Robinson going, that will take A LOT of pressure off of Penix, which should help open up Atlanta's passing game. And if they can get that going, they could be in line to pull off the upset. 
• Why the Packers can win: One reason the Falcons are 0-2 is because they haven't been able to stop the pass. Through two weeks, the Falcons are surrendering an average of 239 passing yards and two touchdowns per game through the air. Basically, this sets up a situation where Jordan Love could absolutely go off. Love threw for 387 yards in Week 1, so he's certainly capable of having a big game. The Packers rushing attack has been virtually non-existent without Josh Jacobs -- Green Bay is averaging an NFL-worst 64.5 rushing yards per game through two weeks -- so it's going to fall on Love to lead the Packers. If he plays well, they should win. But if he turns the ball over or struggles with his accuracy, things could certainly get interesting tonight. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Jordan Love OVER 226.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel): The Packers running game has struggled without Josh Jacobs and I'm expecting more of the same tonight, which means the offense is going to be relying on Love. After throwing for 387 yards in Week 1, he threw for just 187 yards in Week 2. For this game, I see him falling right in-between and I think he'll get to a minimum of 230, which would comfortably hit the over.  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Trey Smack OVER 7.5 points (-140 at BetMGM): The Packers rookie kicker scored 10 points in Week 1 and followed that up with eight points in Week 2. Matt LaFleur finally has a kicker that he can trust and he's not afraid to use him.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 4-4 (2-2 on kicker props and 2-2 on all other props).

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Packers 23-13 over Falcons
John Breech's pick: Packers 27-13 over Falcons
Jordan Dajani's pick: Packers 24-17 over Falcons
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Packers 26-21 over Falcons
Prisco's pick: Packers 27-17 over Falcons

Yup, we're all picking the Packers to win. I feel like that never ends up working out well for us. 

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of our experts have the Packers pulling out the win, but not all of us have the Packers covering as a 5.5-point favorite. 

2. NFL Week 3 picks: Browns stun Steelers, Raiders lose their first game

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers -- Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself -- handing out picks each week. Dubin has bragging rights heading into Week 3 after going 12-4 straight up with his picks last week. I hate when Dubin has bragging rights, because he holds it over our head all week. We get it, Dubin, you crushed us. 

If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 3 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 3 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco -- Browns (+2.5) 23-20 over Panthers. From Prisco: "The Panthers are out on the road for the second straight week after blowing out the Falcons, while the Browns are playing their first home game. Bryce Young is rolling for the Panthers, but I think the Browns defense will play well again here as they did in Tampa last week. The Browns take it in an upset." For the rest of Prisco's Week 3 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan -- Saints (-3) 24-20 over Raiders. From Sullivan: "There is real buzz for New Orleans to win the NFC South this season, and I expect that buzz to be palpable when the Saints play their home opener at the Caesars Superdome after beginning the year with back-to-back road games." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 3 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani -- Bengals (-3.5) 24-17 over Steelers. From Dajani: "In Week 1, the Bengals defense recovered four fumbles. In Week 2, they held C.J. Stroud and the Texans out of the end zone altogether. The Steelers on the other hand have been abysmal on the offensive side of the ball, ranking bottom three in not just total offense and scoring offense, but yards per play (3.8) and third-down percentage (20%) as well. Rodgers is 0/11 on deep balls this season, including 0/6 to droppin' DK Metcalf. The Bengals haven't defeated the Steelers by at least four points since 2022, but I think it happens on Sunday." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin -- Jaguars (-3) 23-17 over Patriots. From Dubin: "The Patriots haven't looked particularly good at any point so far this season. The Jaguars' offensive has at least shown that it has an ability to be efficient and explosive at times. I think they rediscover some of that here and take care of the Patriots at home." For the rest of Dubin's Week 3 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech -- Texans (-3) 27-23 over Colts. From me: "Not only do the Colts have to face the tough Texans defense, but they're going to have to do it without Alec Pierce. I do think the 0-2 Colts have a talented team this year, but that's not going to be able to keep them from falling to 0-3." For the rest of my Week 3 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 3 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

3. Giants QB options: Five trades the team could make with Jaxson Dart now out for the year

The Giants are going to have to play the rest of the season without Jaxson Dart. John Harbaugh officially announced that Dart will miss the rest of the year after injuring his knee on Monday night against the Rams. 

During a press conference on Wednesday, Harbaugh admitted that the team will look to bring in another QB. "We will plan on doing that, absolutely," Harbaugh said. "I can't say who at this point, but we're working on that."

Jameis Winston will be the Giants' starter against the Titans on Sunday, but if he struggles, there's certainly a chance that the Giants could look to replace him, so I came up with a few trade options that might make sense. Here are three from the list;

• Joe Flacco. This would be a reunion between John Harbaugh and Flacco. The Harbaugh-Flacco combination had a lot of success during their 11 seasons together in Baltimore, including a Super Bowl win in 2012. Yes, that was 14 years ago, and yes, Flacco is now 41, but the Giants don't need him to be their franchise quarterback. They just need him to play at high level for 15 games and that's something he might be able to pull off.
• Tyler Huntley. If the Giants do end up making a trade, adding Huntley would probably make the most sense. Huntley spent the first four seasons of his career (2020-23) in Baltimore playing under Harbaugh. Although Huntly left Baltimore in 2024, he returned in 2025 to play one more season with Harbaugh. 
• Justin Fields. One reason Harbaugh might be interested in adding Fields is that Giants offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, is already familiar with him. Nagy coached during Fields' rookie year with the Bears in 2021. 

My list actually consists of five quarterbacks who could make sense in New York and if you want to see the other two names, you'll have to check out the full story here. 

4. Panic meter: 0-2 teams that should be worried

Since we have an 0-2 team playing tonight in the Falcons, we thought that now would be a good time to break out the panic meter. Zach Pereles decided to rank all eight 0-2 teams based on who should be panicking the most at this point. 

Let's check out the three teams at the top of the panic meter: 

1. Commanders. Franchise quarterback out indefinitely? Check. The defense is getting shredded, especially in the secondary. Check. This looks like last year all over again. And last year was very much a disaster. Washington has now lost 12 of its last 14 contests.

2. Chargers. We don't even need to talk about how brutal the schedule gets for the Chargers -- and it gets really brutal -- if they can't beat the Cardinals or the Raiders. The offense is a train wreck. The defense is getting exposed now that former ace coordinator Jesse Minter is gone. It's all bad. 

3. Buccaneers. The Buccaneers' six-point loss to the Bengals was a missed opportunity, but not exactly an upset. The Buccaneers' loss to the Browns, though? It was a stunner. And even worse in terms of panic meter, Baker Mayfield -- extended at the 11th hour this preseason -- looks awful.

If you want to see where the other five 0-2 teams ended up on our panic meter, we've got that here. 

5. Ranking 2-0 teams: Seahawks and Bengals at the top

Now that we've covered the 0-2 teams, it's time to flip things around and rank the undefeated teams. Who's for real? Who might be a fraud? That's what Bryan DeArdo is here to figure out. Last year, the Cardinals were the biggest fraud: They started the season 2-0 and then only won one more game the rest of the year. 

With that in mind, let's check out DeArdo's full ranking of the 2-0 teams. 

Contenders
1. Seahawks. Not only is Seattle 2-0, it won both games with Drew Lock at quarterback in relief of an injured Sam Darnold.
2. Bengals. A big reason for the optimism is the play of Cincinnati's re-vamped defense (that includes former Giants Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence) that has complemented Joe Burrow and the team's high-flying offense.
3. Bills. Buffalo's offense is championship caliber, but the same can't currently be said of the defense, which is why they aren't ranked higher. 
4. 49ers. The 49ers might be the NFL's best team when they are healthy. Health, however, continues to be a challenge for them, which is why they are ranked so low.

Pretenders
1. Chiefs
2. Eagles
3. Vikings
4. Raiders

The Chiefs on the PRETENDERS LIST?! If you want to know why DeArdo isn't so high on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, you'll have to read his full breakdown of 2-0 teams here. 

6. Extra points: Mike Macdonald apologizes to Sean Payton

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Seahawks-Broncos controversy appears to be over. Mike Macdonald apologized to Sean Payton on Wednesday over some comments that leaked out. In an interview with Graham Bensinger, Macdonald said the Broncos accused the Seahawks of cheating in 2024 because Seattle found video of Denver's training camp plays on social media and used that to prepare for a Week 1 matchup between the two teams (You can read the full details of the crazy story here). Macdonald apparently thought he was off the record when he made the comment, so he felt bad that it got out. "It's something that I didn't intend for public use," Macdonald said. "But I felt like it was the most appropriate thing to reach out to Sean, and really, just apologize to him for having that end up be public where it wasn't meant to." Payton appears to have accepted the apology, but it should still make things interesting when these two teams face each other in Week 6. 
• Sam Darnold could return this week. After he was done apologizing to the Broncos, Mike Macdonald gave an interesting update on Sam Darnold. Apparently, there's a chance the injured QB could play this week against the Commanders. "I think we'll make a decision at some point before Friday's over," Macdonald said. "I don't think we'd go into the weekend not knowing if he's going to play. But it's on a good track right now, assuming today goes well." If Darnold can't go, then Drew Lock will get his second straight start. 
• Bears might be down to their third string QB in Week 3. Not only is Caleb Williams (hamstring) dealing with an injury, but Tyson Bagent is now in concussion protocol, which means third-string QB Case Keenum could end up being the starter for the Bears on Monday night against the Eagles. "I feel very prepared," Keenum said, via ESPN. "It's what I do every week. It's what I've done for a long time. I've backed up a long time in this league. If my name's called, I'm excited to be out there." Keenum hasn't started a game since 2023 when he played for the Texans. 
• New preview out for the John Madden movie. There's a new movie about John Madden coming out on Nov. 18 and Amazon just released the first full-length trailer for it (You can check that out here). Amazon went all out with the casting: Nicolas Cage is playing Madden and Christian Bale is former Raiders owner Al Davis. This feels like it should be a good movie, but I'll definitely have to see it before I officially decide on that.