Each week, we’ll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?
Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.
Game One: Redskins -1.5 vs. Vikings
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET FOX
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 2-3 | Overall: 3-2 |
| Home: 0-2 | Home: 2-1 |
| Away: 2-1 | Away: 1-1 |
| Last 5 vs. MIN: 2-3 | Last 5 v. WAS: 3-2 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 17th | Pass defense: 15th |
| Rush offense: 4th | Rush defense: 6th |
| Pass defense: 31st | Pass offense: 24th |
| Rush defense: 10th | Rush offense: 9th |
Verdict: Robert Griffin III is questionable to play, but I'm assuming he will suit up. If not: man, this line would take a tumble in the Vikings favor. But let's say that Griffin plays and is mostly healthy. I still go with the Vikings, one of the biggest surprise teams in the league this season who have a top-10 defense, a top-10 running game and a much-improved Christian Ponder.
Game Two: 49ers -6.5 vs. Giants
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 4-1 | Overall: 2-2-1 |
| Home: 2-0 | Home: 1-2 |
| Away: 2-1 | Away: 1-0-1 |
| Last 5 vs. NYG: 1-4 | Last 5 vs. SF: 4-1 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 27th | Pass defense: 22nd |
| Rush offense: 1st | Rush defense: 16th |
| Pass defense: 2nd | Pass offense: 3rd |
| Rush defense: 7th | Rush offense: 12th |
Verdict: The 49ers are one of the league's best teams. The Giants, meanwhile, are kind of puttering along, beating the bad teams and falling short of the good ones while tying for first in the NFC East. So, I can understand the 6.5 point line. But it just doesn't feel right to me. The 49ers could blow out the Giants, and I guess it wouldn't be a total surprise. But I think New York keeps it close and covers.
Game Three (largest spread of week): Falcons -9.5 vs. Raiders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 4-1 | Overall: 2-3 |
| Home: 1-1 | Home: 1-1 |
| Away: 3-0 | Away: 1-2 |
| Last 2 vs. MIN: 2-0 | Last 2 v. WAS: 0-2 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 8th | Pass defense: 27th |
| Rush offense: 21st | Rush defense: 24th |
| Pass defense: 7th | Pass offense: 12th |
| Rush defense: 28th | Rush offense: 32nd |
Verdict: For some reason, I always believe the Raiders are going to be better than they ultimately play. I still believe Carson Palmer is a legit starting quarterback, I still believe running back Darren McFadden will break out, and I still think first-year coach Dennis Allen will turn around that Raiders defense. And while all of these things might be true (or eventually will be true), they won't travel across the country and beat the Falcons. Or cover the spread, for that matter.
PROP BETS
What will be the average rushing yards per carry for the Cardinals in Week 6?
Over/Under 3.9
Coming into the season, you’d have thought Arizona would be just fine with its running game by playing Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. But after five weeks, both are on the IR list. The fact is, nobody on the team except for cornerback Patrick Peterson and receiver Andre Roberts are averaging more than 3.1 yards per carry (on four combined attempts). Now, the Cardinals partially will use LaRod Stephens-Howling -- who is averaging 0.1 yards per carry. So, um, yeah, go under.
Will the Patriots have three or more rushing TDs in Week 6? (Note: They have done so the last two weeks)
Yes 7-1
Stevan Ridley has been outstanding in his new role as New England’s starting running back -- he’s fifth in the league with 490 rushing yards -- but this week, the Patriots have to travel across the country to Seattle to face the NFL’s top defensive team. The Seahawks allow 14 points per game. That makes it difficult for New England to score three rushing touchdowns. I’m saying no.
Brady Quinn -- total passing yards Week 6
Over/Under 220 1/2
*Must start for action
In Quinn’s 16-game career, he’s thrown for more than 220 yards exactly three times. What makes this bet interesting is that the Buccaneers are the worst pass defense in the league, allowing 345.3 yards in the air per game. If it was most any other team, I’d go under. But against Tampa Bay, I think Quinn might have a decent-sized day. Go over.
Will the Cleveland Browns go 0-16 in the 2012 regular season?
Yes 33-1
This is kind of a gimme, but what the hell. I’m saying no.
Last week: 0-3 against the spread (missed on Chargers +3.5 vs. Saints; Jaguars +6.5 vs. the Bears; and Bills +10.5 vs. 49ers.
3-1 on the prop bets. Hit on Jets going under on 320.5 yards of offense, Peyton Manning having more passing yards than Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez not getting benched in Week 4. Missed on Rashard Mendenhall going under 60 1/2 rushing yards.
Overall: 7-8 against the spread; 12-5 on prop bets; one prop still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired).