Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The countdown is officially on. In just over 48 hours, the first NFL preseason game of the year will be kicking off with the Bears and Texans facing each other in the Hall of Fame Game. Sure, you probably will have never heard about half the players who will be on the field, but it's still football, so you're definitely going to want to watch.
One other thing you're definitely going to want to do is read today's newsletter. We've got Will Brinson coming in hot with a list of teams that he doesn't think will make the playoffs this year after making it last year. We also have Cody Benjamin ranking every NFL division by how good their quarterbacks are.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Four teams that made the playoffs last season that WON'T make it this year
If there's one thing you can count on every year in the NFL, it's that the playoffs are going to look completely different. In every season since 1990, there have been at least four new playoff teams, which means there have been four teams that didn't make the playoffs after making it in the prior season.
So who's going to choke this year?
Will Brinson did the leg work for us and came up with several teams that he thinks won't be making the playoffs this year after making it last year. Let's check out four teams on his list:
- Browns. "This boils down to Deshaun Watson, who helped take equally talented Texans teams to the postseason in years past. If pre-trade Watson shows up, the Browns will challenge for a postseason spot. If Watson continues his Cleveland era performance, this feels like a team on the outside looking in."
- Cowboys. "Jones notably said the Cowboys were 'all in' on 2024 early on in the offseason. Everyone assumed that meant spending tons of money in free agency and being hyper aggressive in the draft. As it turns out, what Jones meant was the Cowboys were just going to go with the status quo, see what happens in 2024 and then either quadruple down or blow the whole thing up. ... If things start slowly at all, it's not difficult to see the tension getting cranked up to the point it affects the season negatively with everything falling apart."
- Buccaneers. "The schedule is much more difficult this year: the Lions, 49ers and Ravens are a brutal trio of first-place matchup, in addition to bad draws in the NFC East (at Dallas) and the AFC West (at Kansas City). The division should also be improved."
- Texans. "I don't feel good about this and I'm not really even predicting the Texans will miss the postseason. But you can find a path in your mind where Stroud takes a step back (he could be great and still take a step back). Maybe the Jags return to form, or the Colts are really good or the Titans surprise people."
Brinson had a total of seven teams on his list and you can check them all out here.
2. Ranking the NFL's top 10 duos heading into the 2024 season
Over the course of human history, there have been some iconic duos, ranging from Jack and Coke to Batman and Robin. In the NFL, having a solid duo can be the difference between having a good team and a great team.
With that in mind, Cody Benjamin went through and ranked the top 10 duos in the NFL this year. Let's check out his top five:
1. Chiefs: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes
2. Bengals: Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase
3. Eagles: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
4. Dolphins: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
5. 49ers: Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy
As I said, Cody's ranking consisted of 10 duos, and if you want to see his entire list, be sure to click here.
3. Ranking divisions by quarterbacks: AFC North edges out AFC East
Since everyone mostly agrees that Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, we decided we needed to make a QB list that everyone DOESN'T mostly agree on -- and that's where Cody Benjamin comes in. Cody decided to rank every division in the NFL based solely on who has the best overall quarterback play. Yes, Mahomes is the best QB, but does that mean the AFC West as the most QB talent overall?
The answer to that question is no, at least according to Cody. Let's check out the top-two teams and the bottom-two teams in his rankings:
1. AFC North (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson. "Which other division, besides the Mahomes-weighted AFC West, boasts a top two with a combined two NFL MVPs and three conference championship bids? This division, and its quarterbacks, can get ugly. But they almost always make for tough outs."
2. AFC East (Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye/Jacoby Brissett). "The boom-or-bust division. Even with an overhauled receiving corps, Allen is a one-man wrecking crew, possessing unmatched flair as a rugged scrambler and deep-ball launcher. Rodgers has major medical concerns coming off a serious injury going on 41, but it's hard to deny his craftiness as a precision thrower, especially in a talented lineup. Tagovailoa relies heavily on timing, still looking to prove himself on the big stage, but is one of the league's finest pinpoint passers."
.....
7. AFC West (Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Aidan O'Connell, Bo Nix). "Talk about a top-heavy quartet. Mahomes is already Hall of Fame-bound after his third Super Bowl title in five years, an annual standard-setter whether slinging it deep or slugging it out when it matters most. He's never not a fun watch. Herbert remains a pristine prototype, with a laser arm and elite size from the pocket. ... You can pretty safely call this a two-horse race."
8. NFC South (Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield). "It's no coincidence that this division is generally considered the weakest of the eight. ... Bet on any one of these at your own risk."
If you want to know how Cody's entire ranking of all eight divisions ended up shaking out, then be sure to click here.
4. New NFL kickoff rule not quite set in stone yet: League could still make changes
The the NFL doesn't usually make any changes to the NFL rulebook at this point in the offseason, but the league has already made one change to the new kickoff rule and a few more could be coming, according to Packers special teams coach Rich Bisaccia.
Here's what you need to know:
- The rule that got changed. The NFL sent a memo out last week to all 32 teams to let everyone know that kickers will NOT be allowed to place the football sideways on the tee for a kickoff. When the football is placed on a tee for a kickoff, it can only be elevated a maximum of one-inch off the ground. If the ball is placed on the tee horizontally, then it ends up being about 1.5 inches off the ground, which is why the NFL is prohibiting the horizontal set up. Apparently, kickers were looking to get an edge with the new kickoff rule and one way they were going to do that was to set up the ball horizontally, which would have allowed them to put a spin on the ball that they can't do when it's set up vertically.
- Bisaccia thinks more rule changes could be coming. The NFL will be seeking feedback from each team on the new kickoff rule after each joint practice and preseason game this year. Bisaccia thinks that's happening because the league is going to consider modifying the rule if that needs to be done. "I think there will be some sort of, maybe amendments, to some of the rules. Maybe amendments to some of the lineups as well."
The new kickoff rule is arguably the biggest rule change in recent NFL history and there could certainly be some unintended consequences, which the league now seems to realize. If Bisaccia is right, then the NFL plans to be proactive with the rule by modifying it if that's what needs to be done, even if those modifications have to happen during the season.
You can read more about the rule change here.
5. Former first-round pick abruptly retires at age 28
It's not often that you see a former first-round pick retire from the NFL after just six seasons, but that's exactly what happened on Tuesday with Rashaad Penny. The running back stunned the Panthers by announcing his retirement.
Here are some details on the situation:
- Penny was drafted by the Seahawks. Penny entered the NFL in 2018 when the Seahawks made him the 24th overall pick in the draft. During five seasons with the Seahawks, Penny never really panned out, although he did lead the NFL with 6.3 yards per carry in 2021. He also had a career-high six rushing touchdowns that year.
- Penny leaves Seattle in 2023. After five years with the Seahawks, Penny moved on to Philadelphia in 2023 where he would spend one season with the Eagles. Penny only saw action in three games as he had trouble cracking an Eagles lineup that included D'Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.
- Injuries derailed Penny's career. During his six years in the NFL, Penny never once made it through an entire season. The closest he came was during his rookie year when he played in 14 games. After that, he never played in more than 10 games during a single season. Over the course of his career, Penny dealt with everything from a hamstring injury to a torn ACL to a deltoid ligament tear.
Penny's retirement comes just days after he had said that he's one of the best running backs in the NFL when he's healthy. Unfortunately for Penny, he just was never healthy. The running back hasn't explained why he's retiring, but it won't be surprising if we find out that his extensive injury history factored into his decision.
6. Extra points: Bills sign 14-year veteran at safety
It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Kareem Jackson signs with Bills. After spending his entire 14-year career with either the Broncos or Texans, Jackson has finally found a home somewhere else. The veteran safety, who has started a total of 193 games over his career, has signed a one-year deal with the Bills.
- Falcons to sign former Steelers leading receiver. James Washington is going to attempt to revive his career in Atlanta. The former Steelers receiver, who led Pittsburgh in receiving yards in 2019, hasn't played in the NFL since 2022, but the Falcons have decided to kick the tires on him anyway. You can get the full details of the signing here.
- Texans pass rusher hit with six-game suspension. Denico Autry is going to have to wait until Week 7 to make his debut in Houston. Autry was hit with a six-game suspension on Monday for violating the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing substances. Autry just joined the Texans in March when he signed a two-year, $20 million deal.
- Colts sack leader out for the season. The Colts pass rush took a major hit on this week after Samson Ebukam was lost for the season. Ebukam, who led the team in sacks last year, is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in practice on Sunday.
- Caleb Williams wants to play in the Hall of Fame Game. When it comes to the Hall of Fame Game, most coaches keep their starters on the bench, but Caleb Williams wants to change that. The Bears rookie said he wants to play in the game, "I would love to get out there and play," Williams said this week. "It's pretty awesome to be at Canton, but it's coach's decision." I'm guessing that the coach's decision is going to be that Williams doesn't play. The game will be coming at you on Thursday when the Bears face the Texans in Canton, Ohio.
