Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
With the Browns playing last night, I thought I might be in bed by halftime, but the joke was on because I didn't sleep at all due to the fact that I was in shock after watching them give us one of the best Thursday night games of the year. Not only did they pull off a 24-19 upset win over the Steelers, but the game was played in the snow and there is nothing I like better than watching football in the snow. As a matter of fact, every Thursday game from now on should be played in the snow. I have no idea how that would work, but the NFL has money, it can pay someone to figure that out.
In today's newsletter, we'll be handing out grades from the Browns' win, plus we'll be making some bold predictions and taking a look at the Steelers' inexplicably bad track record on "Thursday Night Football."
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1. Browns shock Steelers: Grades and notes for 'Thursday Night Football'
The Browns (3-8) pulled off a shocker over the Steelers (8-3) with a 24-19 win that wasn't sealed until Nick Chubb scored on a 2-yard run with just 57 seconds left to play.
Here are our grades from the game:
STEELERS GRADE: C
There are no easy games in the AFC North and the Steelers learned that lesson the hard way on Thursday night. With snow falling in Cleveland, the Steelers just couldn't come up with any clutch plays when they needed them. Russell Wilson and the offense had a solid night, but Wilson also lost a fumble and there were two failed fourth downs that were costly. The Steelers also put the ball in Justin Fields' hands on several big plays, a plan that backfired multiple times. The Steelers defense forced three turnovers in the second half, but they also let Jameis Winston dice them up for 72 yards in the fourth quarter. Coaching was also an issue: Mike Tomlin definitely deserves some blame for the way he handled the clock (and his timeouts) at the end of both the first half and the second half. No matter how good the Steelers are, they always have one or two games a season where they inexplicably lose to a bad team and this definitely falls into that category.
Steelers notes
- Steelers keep losing to bad teams. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Steelers have now lost to the 2-10 Cardinals (2023), 2-10 Patriots (2023) and 2-8 Browns (2024). All three of those games came in Week 12 or later. So the Steelers have three losses in that situation while EVERY other NFL team combined has only lost one game to a two-win team in Week 12 or later over the past two seasons. The Steelers are 5-0 this season against teams that are currently above .500, but just 3-3 against teams that are under .500.
- Improbable loss. Over the past 30 years, NFL teams were 107-1 when holding their opponent to one or fewer first downs and forcing at least three turnovers while also totaling at least 350 yards of offense. The Steelers did all of those things on Thursday night and still loss, which means NFL teams are now 107-2 in that situation.
BROWNS GRADE: B
The Browns clearly have not given up on the 2024 season. At 2-8, they could have mailed it in for this game, but instead, they delivered a knockout punch in a huge upset win. Myles Garrett set the tone early with three sacks in the first half for a defense that kept coming up with big plays, including two fourth down stops. The Browns offense struggled at times in the snow -- they didn't record a single first down until the second quarter and they only converted one third down in the entire game -- but despite those struggles, Jameis Winston still came up with several big plays, especially during a second half where he threw for 141 of his 219 yards. The Browns offense went a perfect 4-for-4 on fourth down with two of those conversions coming on the drive that led to Cleveland's game-winning touchdown, which came from Nick Chubb. At 3-8, this team won't be making the playoffs, but they certainly could play spoiler down the stretch.
Browns notes
- Twenty years in the making. The Browns have now won two straight games over the Steelers, which isn't usually something we'd point out here, but in this rivalry, that's a big deal, at least on Cleveland's end. The two-game winning streak marks the first time in 24 years that Cleveland has won two straight against the Steelers. The last time it happened came when Cleveland won the second meeting of the 1999 season and the first meeting of the 2000 season.
- Home Sweet home. If you're betting on a Steelers-Browns game, you should probably just go ahead and put your money on the home team. The win by Cleveland marks the sixth straight time that the home team has won in this rivalry. The streak started in Week 17 of the 2021 season and could continue into 2025 if the Steelers beat the Browns in Pittsburgh in Week 14.
Jameis Winston had a wild night that included him making snow angels with the Amazon NFL team and you can check out his top moments here.
Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here.
2. Steelers are inexplicably bad on Thursdays: 44-year losing streak continues
Since being hired by the Steelers in 2007, Mike Tomlin has been one of the best coaches in the NFL, but if there's one thing he's struggled with, it's getting his team prepared to play a Thursday night game on the road.
In his 18 seasons on the job, Tomlin has been the coach for a total of 11 Thursday night road games, and in those games the Steelers have gone 2-9. Let's take a closer look at the number:
- Steelers are winless in divisional road games. Since 1980, the Steelers have played a total of eight divisional road games on Thursday night and they've lost them ALL, going 0-8 in those games, which includes going 0-6 under Tomlin. That's 44 straight years of losing. This is one of the winningest franchises in NFL history, and somehow, they've never won a divisional road game on a Thursday night. Not only are the Steelers 0-8 in these games, but they're also 1-7 against the spread.
- Steelers haven't won a Thursday night road game in five years. Over the past five years, the Steelers have played four Thursday night road games and they've lost them all. The last time the Steelers won a Thursday night road game came all the way back in 2016 when they beat the Colts on Thanksgiving. When the NFL tabulates a team's Thursday night record, they don't include Thanksgiving, so if we take that out, then the Steelers haven't won a Thursday night road game since December 2007.
- A decade of failure. Over the past 10 years, the Steelers have played a total of 12 Thursday games (this includes both home and away games) and in that span, they've gone just 4-8. If you look at their entire franchise history, the Steelers have played 35 Thursday games and they've gone just 14-21.
Mike Tomlin has won a Super Bowl and he's never had a losing record as a head coach, but Thursday night games continue to be a nightmare for him and the franchise. You can read more about the Steelers' Thursday woes here.
3. Daniel Jones requests his release: QB also breaks silence on Giants' decision to bench him
Well, this went downhill quickly. After being benched by the Giants this week, Daniel Jones requested his release and the Giants granted it on Friday morning (Full story here).
Here's a quick look at the situation:
- Jones is officially done in New York. The Giants selected Jones with the sixth overall pick in 2019 and after just six seasons, the quarterback will be leaving New York. It's a shocking turn of events, if only because it's so unusual. Quarterbacks get benched all the time, but most of them don't get released DURING the season. Once Jones is released, he'll go through waivers, which means any team can claim him. If he goes unclaimed, then he'll become a free agent.
- Giants say the move was best for the team. Giants President John Mara said the release request from Jons came on Friday morning. "Daniel came to see me this morning and asked if we would release him," Mara said. "We mutually agreed that would be best for him and for the team. Daniel has been a great representative of our organization, first class in every way. His handling of this situation yesterday exemplifies just that.
Speaking of that "situation yesterday," Mara is referring to Jones' interview with the media. Due to his benching, Jones didn't have to meet with the media, but he decided to anyway and he had some interesting things to say (and just as a note, all of this was said on Thursday well before he was released).
- Jones takes responsibility for team's lack of success. Jones went 24-44-1 during his time as the Giants starter and he's aware of the fact that his record wasn't good enough. "I take full responsibility for my part in not bringing more wins," Jones said. "No one wanted to win more games worse than me and I gave everything I had on the field and in my preparation. ... I'm 100% accountable for my part I did not play well consistently enough help the team get the results."
- Jones will definitely be looking to play somewhere else. With Jones headed out of New York after the 2024 season, he made it pretty clear that he's already excited for his next shot. "I love the game, I love being part of a team and I'm excited for the next opportunity," Jones said. "I know that there's a lot of good football in front of me and I'm excited about that."
- Jones admits that his contract played a part in his benching. The Giants QB has a $23 million injury guarantee that the team would only have to pay out if Jones gets injured on the field. Not only did the Giants bench him, but they've taken him out of harm's way in practice so that they won't be forced to pay the guarantee. "That was a piece of the conversation, for sure," Jones said of the guarantee, via ESPN. "I wanted to play. I wanted to play badly and do what I could to play. I think it was a part of it. Most of those discussions took place with my agents and [general manager Joe Schoen]."
The Daniel Jones era is officially over in New York and the only upside is that if you own a Jones jersey, it's now a collector's item. The Giants will be handing the offense over to Tommy DeVito for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers. You can read more about Jones here.
4. NFL Week 12 picks: Rams and Cardinals take control of NFC West
It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. In Week 12, things got a little weird: We eked out a winning record by going 3-2 both straight up and against the spread. For the season, that means we're now 27-28 ATS and 27-23 straight up.
If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 12 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco -- Cardinals (-1) 23-20 over Seahawks. From Prisco: "The Cardinals are off a bye, while the Seahawks are off a tough, physical victory over the 49ers. That wears on a team. Seattle looked good on defense in that game, but Kyler Murray is playing well right now. He will in this one as the Cardinals win a key division game to stay in first place." For the rest of Prisco's Week 12 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Packers (-2.5) 27-23 over 49ers. From Sullivan: "The 49ers are beat up: Brock Purdy is dealing with right shoulder soreness, and they may not have star pass rusher Nick Bosa available because of a hip/oblique injury. Even if both play, one would assume they'll be limited in what they can do on the field. The Niners are 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and I don't expect that to improve in Week 12." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 12 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jason La Canfora -- Dolphins (-7) to cover against Patriots. From JLC: "Miami has covered eight straight games vs. the Patriots and won seven of those eight. Their average margin of victory is 8.4 points. Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 ATS vs. New England and Miami has acovered in six of their last seven at home vs. the Pats, covering on average by 6.3 points. Miami has shown new life last over the last few weeks, while New England is flawed on both sides of the ball." You can check out the rest of La Canfora's best bets for Week 12 here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Broncos (-6) 24-17 over Raiders. From Dajani: "The Raiders rank last in takeaways (5) and turnover margin (-15). They also allow 28.5 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. The Broncos dropped 34 points on the Raiders in a 16-point win earlier this season, so I'll look to score an easy W with the 5.5-point number this week. Nix is actually 4-0 ATS when favored this year." For the rest of Dajani's Week 12 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- Rams (+3) 34-31 over Eagles. "The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in football, but I feel like they're going to get torched this week by Matthew Stafford, who's thrown 10 TD passes in his past four games." For the rest of my Week 12 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 12 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.
5. NFL bold predictions for Week 12: Patriots shock Dolphins
After giving you some bold predictions for Week 11 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 12. Last week, Garrett correctly predicted that the Bills would beat the Chiefs, so you'll definitely want to see what he has to say this week.
Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday:
- 1. Drake Maye leads Patriots to upset win over Dolphins. "Miami's pass rush is horrendous at finishing pass rushes for sacks. They are generating a 34.4% quarterback pressure rate, which is 17th in the NFL, but they only have 17 sacks, which is the third-fewest in the entire league. I'm betting Maye avoids the Dolphins pass rush and scrambles the Patriots to an upset victory over Tagovailoa and Co. in Miami."
- 2. Jordan Love's interception streak finally ends. "Love has thrown an interception in all eight games this season, which is tied for the fourth-longest single-season streak by a Packers quarterback since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Naturally, one would expect Love's interception streak to continue against a 49ers defense that has hauled in 11 interceptions this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. However, Love looked the best he has all season scrambling and creating time to throw with his legs in Green Bay's Week 11 win at the Chicago Bears. With his mobility coming back week by week since his MCL injury, Love should play a clean game in Week 12 at home against San Francisco."
Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 12, and you check out all of them here.
6. Extra points: NFL flexes a Thursday night game for the first time
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- NFL uses Thursday flex for Week 16. The Browns and Bengals were originally scheduled to play on Thursday night in Week 16, but that won't be happening. The game has been flexed out with Broncos at Chargers being moved to Thursday night. This marks the first time ever that the league has used a Thursday flex. You can read the full details on the NFL's decision here.
- Kevin Stefanski's job appears to be safe. Thursday ended up being a big day for Kevin Stefanski: Not only did his team win, but it looks like he'll be keeping his job for at least another year. According to NFL.com, the Browns are expected to bring Stefanski back in 2025 for his sixth year with the team.
- Why the Jets need to dump Aaron Rodgers. Former NFL agent Joel Corry, who now works here with us at CBS Sports, made the case this week that the Jets should absolutely dump Rodgers after the 2024 season. The decision all comes down to money and you can check out Corry's take here on why Rodgers needs to go.
- Packers starter could be sidelined for a few weeks. Jaire Alexander told The Athletic on Thursday that he's dealing with a torn PCL in his right knee and it's an injury that could sideline him for several weeks. The two-time All-Pro said he's going to need at least 21 days of no contact if he's going to heal, which means he's likely going to be sidelined for at least a month. The Packers will be facing the 49ers on Sunday.
- Brock Purdy limited in practice again. The 49ers QB was limited once again in practice due to a sore right shoulder. Whenever a QB has an injury to his throwing arm, that's something you need to watch and it will be interesting to see how Purdy looks on Sunday against Green Bay, if he even plays. General manager John Lynch called Purdy's situation "tenuous," which doesn't sound like it bodes well for him playing. If Purdy can't go, then the 49ers will turn to Brandon Allen.
