Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: Which superstar QB has the edge between two MVP candidates?

Yes, the Super Bowl is always the NFL's most anticipated game of a season, but the 2024 AFC divisional round showdown of the third-seeded Baltimore Ravens at the second-seeded Buffalo Bills can give the big game a run for its money this season.

That's because Sunday night's game features both of the NFL's All-Pro quarterbacks, and the league's likely top two finishers in 2024 NFL MVP voting: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (First Team All-Pro) and Bills quarterback Josh Allen (Second Team All-Pro). This makes this game so tantalizing because these two fan bases have a shot at postseason bragging rights in a game that features their two quarterback goliaths. Jackson (45 total touchdowns, nine turnovers) vs. Allen (40 total touchdowns, eight turnovers) on Sunday night is the first ever playoff matchup between two starting quarterbacks who produced at least 40 total touchdowns and under 10 turnovers in the regular season.

* First playoff matchup ever between QBs with 40+ total TD and under 10 TO

So which All-Pro quarterback will lead their team to victory and a spot in the AFC Championship game on Sunday night? The two quarterbacks are 2-2 against each other with Allen's Bills winning the sole playoff game in the 2020 divisional round, 17-3. Although, that was a game Jackson exited in the second half because of a concussion. Let's take a look at the biggest matchup on each side of the ball to determine where the advantages are and predict a winner. 

Ravens offense vs. Bills defense

Advantage: Ravens in a big way

The same area that gave Buffalo fits in the Ravens' 35-10 win over the Bills in Baltimore in Week 4 remains an issue entering Sunday night: Baltimore's multi-faceted run game vs. a Bills defense much more geared toward stopping the pass. That day, Ravens running back Derrick Henry ripped off an 87-yard touchdown run on Baltimore's first play from scrimmage, and the Ravens scored a touchdown on each of their first three drives to go up 21-3 in the blink of an eye. Henry had his best game of the season with 199 rushing yards on 24 carries (an average of 8.3 yards per carry), 150 of which came on three runs -- the 87-yard touchdown, a 25-yard run and a 38-yard run. The Ravens outrushed the Bills, 271-81, while averaging 5.2 yards BEFORE contact per carry. That day, Jackson threw for an efficient 156 yards and two touchdowns on 13 of 18 passing while adding 54 yards rushing and a touchdown on 13 carries for an average of nine yards per carry. 

Baltimore's one-two punch is historic, and it's also paired with a massive scheme advantage entering Sunday. The duo of Jackson and Henry have the most rushing yards (2,836) and total yds (7,201) by a duo in a season in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research. Here's where the X's and O's provide the Ravens' Jimmy's and Joe's with a decisive edge. Baltimore uses at least two tight ends in their formations on the highest rate in the NFL (47.9% of their plays) in 2024, and they use multiple running backs, mainly Henry and 6-foot-3, 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard, on the third-highest rate of their plays (38.4%) in the league. 

That's a horrible matchup for the Bills, who play their base defense at the lowest rate (4% of their plays) in the NFL this season. What that means is Buffalo heavily prefers to use the speed of sub-packages like nickel (five defensive backs on the field) dime (six defensive backs on the field) or quarter (seven or more defensive backs on the field). Buffalo was in its base defense at a much higher rate than normal, 26%, in Week 4, but that didn't change much. 

A counter one might immediately suggest is to just load the box with at least eight defenders. Well, that hasn't really worked when against Henry this season. He's seen the highest rate of his carries (33%) against at least eight men in the box this season, minimum 200 carries this season per CBS Sports Research, but Henry still average an NFL-best 6.3 yards per carry against eight men in the box, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bills also likely won't go there because it's not their M.O.: Buffalo has run the lowest rate (4%) of their defensive plays with at least eight in the box this season. 

Buffalo has two areas for hope against Baltimore in this department on Sunday in their playoff rematch. Three defensive starters on the Bills defense did not play in Week 4 -- linebacker Matt Milano, linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson. Having those guys in the lineup, and using their speed to slip through the cracks to hit Henry at or behind the line of scrimmage is crucial. Henry averaged only 2.3 yards per carry when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, per PFF, and the Bills hit opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage on 52% of their carries, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Better health and using their speed in an attempt to counteract the Ravens' powerful ground game is their only path to success here. 

Bills offense vs. Ravens defense

Advantage: Bills by a hair

Ryan played in at least two games a season in which he knew going into the matchup his defense was outmanned when his Falcons faced quarterback Drew Brees and the New Orleans. His blueprint in those games was simple: hold on to the football. That's something the Bills did at an elite level against the Broncos in the wild-card round last week, having their offense on the field for 41:43 of the 60-minute game clock despite the Broncos not committing any turnovers. It also helped that running back James Cook went off for 120 yards rushing and a touchdown on 23 carries, making him the first Bills player with a 100-yard rushing game in the playoffs since Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas in 1995. 

"That's, it's outrageous, right?" CBS NFL analyst Matt Ryan, the 2016 NFL MVP and four-time Pro Bowl QB with the Atlanta Falcons, said of the Bills time of possession last week. ... "A quarterback like a Drew Brees in New Orleans that we had to face all the time, it was a difficult matchup for our defense. We've talked early in the week about, 'hey, we're going to snap the ball almost every time under five seconds [on the play clock], and we're going to shorten the game. Shorten the number of plays. ... I think that's something you have to consider, and then ultimately, offensively, you've got to make your plays when they present themselves."

Allen and the Bills have done that as the only team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams in the same season, per CBS Sports Research, by beating both the 15-2 Detroit Lions and the 15-2 Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season. Naturally, Allen was nearly perfect in those two victories, producing 747 total yards (624 passing and 123 rushing), six total touchdowns (three passing and three rushing) and only turnover (one interception vs. the Chiefs) combined in those two victories. 

However, he will have to continue that high-level play against a Ravens defense that has been the best in the NFL in scoring defense (15.4 points per game allowed), total defense (261.7 total yards per game allowed), third down defense (29.7% conversion rate allowed) and the most efficient defense (72.2 passer rating allowed) since Week 11 through the opening round of the playoffs. 

This dramatic improvement was sparked by multiple personnel changes. Baltimore benched free safety Marcus Williams, cut safety Eddie Jackson, began starting undrafted veteran Ar'Darius Washington at free safety and moved All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton from being a hybrid defender to being a full-time strong safety. Hamilton played 446 snaps at linebacker/slot corner and only 135 snaps at safety in Weeks 1-10, but since Week 11, Hamilton has played 292 snaps at safety and 137 snaps at linebacker/slot corner, per PFF. 

Prediction

Between Baltimore's improved defense and a run game that Buffalo doesn't appear to have answers for both schematically and athletically, the Ravens are the pick here. Even if the Bills can slow down the Ravens on the ground, then they have to deal with defending the NFL's most efficient passer in Jackson. Ravens 27, Bills 20