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Do not get my mother started on Christmas Day football. On the overall concept of "football on Christmas Day no matter what," I actually tend to agree with her: it's pretty unnecessary. Until Christmas gets here and there's three games on Christmas Day. Then it's the best thing in the world. 

A Thursday Christmas is basically like second Thanksgiving, and that means we've got a loaded slate of games, all three of which will require you to assist an elderly adult in figuring out how to watch, as they're all on Netflix and Amazon Prime. 

Below you're going to find a pick for each game, an anytime touchdown scorer pick for each game and a player prop for each game. As we did on Thanksgiving, these picks could easily be tossed into parlays (three ATD scorers, three props, etc). Hopefully, unlike Thanksgiving, we got hot with these picks. 

Hopefully everyone has a happy and healthy holiday season and Merry Christmas to you all! Now let's win some bets. 

Christmas NFL picks

Cowboys -7 at Commanders

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The Cowboys have been eliminated from the playoffs after a pretty strong false-hope run during the middle of the season. So, there's a chance they lay down here, and that's obviously concerning. But I think they stand up strong and try to finish on a winning streak for Brian Schotteheimer, who's done a really great job coaching them thus far in 2025. 

Plus, Washington has just two wins since September (!) and one of those came in Week 5, with the other being a somewhat surprising beatdown of the Giants on the road. The Commmanders just aren't a healthy or very good football team. 

Dak Prescott should thrive in this matchup and it feels like a prime spot for either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens to explode. Javonte Williams should have a monster game as well. Basically -- if the Dallas offense shows up to play, the Cowboys should romp in this one. 

The Cowboys defense has proven to be capable against bad teams and Washington is pretty bad right now, but even if they give up a ton of points, it will only force them into chucking the ball around more. 

Lions at Vikings Under 44.5

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On Tuesday, we told you to bet the Lions early ahead of this Christmas matchup and hopefully you listened, because this line has ballooned well north of a full touchdown with the news that J.J. McCarthy won't be playing. 

It's another Max Brosmer game and as a result, the total's gone way down and the spread is way up. We're going to lean into the Under and the Lions' slim playoff hopes here. Detroit has roughly a 4% chance of making the postseason at the moment, but the Lions can't be eliminated unless they lose or the Packers win on Saturday night.

Detroit and Dan Campbell know Jordan Love might not play against the Ravens (although Lamar Jackson may not play either and the spread isn't really indicative of what's happening yet), so it's a real "you're telling me there's a chance" situation going on with Detroit. 

They will flex their muscles here, indoors, against a team that's eliminated. The Lions will probably run the ball a ton to avoid giving the Minnesota defense any chance of flipping the field or using turnovers to create points. I'm a touch concerned the Lions get the Over by themselves, but think they'll just try and get in and out with a win. 

Broncos -13.5 at Chiefs

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You know who is going to flex his muscles? Sean Payton, against the team that's owned the AFC and the AFC West over the last decade and is now missing Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs got flat-out destroyed by the Titans last week as 3.5-point road favorites. It looked like they gave up on the season after Mahomes injury. 

Kansas City has nothing to play for here other than pride and the potential spoiler role, but they won't even have their regular backup in Gardner Minshew, who injured his knee last week.

Instead it's Chris Oladokun against a nasty Denver defense that will be angry at how it played against the Jaguars last week. The Broncos are fighting for the No. 1 seed as well as the division title (the Chargers are still alive) and we could get one of those classic Bo Nix explosion games in this spot. 

This could be a big R.J. Harvey outing, and Denver could also just lean on defense and running the ball to win something like 28-10. 

Christmas NFL player props 

Javonte Williams Over 15.5 carries 

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On Thanksgiving we made the mistake of trying to pick which Lions running back would get the carries. We don't have to do that here, as we can simply back Javonte Williams to be the bellcow for Dallas against a bad Washington defense. 

The Cowboys are big road favorites and they love to run Williams in these spots. In the Cowboys winning streak prior to these last three games, he got 59 carries across three games. I expect Dallas to go back to him here and lean on the run.

My biggest fear is Williams gets rest if Dallas is up, but they're eliminated and won't mind leaning on their bellcow to close this one out. 

Jameson Williams Over 64.5 receiving yards

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Williams exploded on Thanksgiving when Amon-Ra St. Brown went down with an injury, and this sets up well for him to blow up once more.

St. Brown is dinged up and with the Lions still fighting for a playoff spot (and hoping that fight continues into Week 18), they might be willing to rest their star some and lean on their alternate No. 1 receiver. 

Williams has been a monster over the last month regardless, getting 38 (!) targets over his last four games and turning them into 144 total yards. With Dan Campbell calling the plays, he's been one of the best receivers in football. Campbell is still calling the plays on Christmas, which should mean a lot more looks for Williams.  

R.J. Harvey Over 52.5 rushing yards

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The Chiefs still have a good defense, but that defense is also dealing with the sobering realization this team isn't going to the postseason for the first time since 2014.

That realization was clear against the Titans last week, and Denver is a much better team than Tennessee. I fully expect the Broncos to lean on Harvey in this spot and, quite frankly, I'm shocked the number is this low. 

Harvey didn't get a ton of carries last week as a result of a negative gamescript, but in each of the previous four weeks he got double-digit totes. He should get around 15 in this spot and is always a threat to pop off a huge run and cash this early on. 

Anytime touchdown scorer props

George Pickens +130

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Pickens followed up a down Week 15 with a nice monster performance last week, going for 130 yards and a score. I expect him to go off again against a Washington secondary that is questionable at best.

Dak Prescott loves to target him in the red zone and take deep shots his way, and Pickens sees great coverage as a result of defenses tilting towards CeeDee Lamb, so this is a prime spot for him to find the end zone at a reasonable number. 

Isaac TeSlaa +400

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TeSlaa's rookie season hasn't been as productive as many predicted in terms of receptions, but the touchdowns have been there! TeSlaa now has five touchdowns on 10 catches, which is just a wild number.

It's very clear the Lions are designing plays for him in the passing game -- namely to use his red-zone skill set to attack defenders with his size. 

Taking the Under and a backup receiver to score a touchdown is a little hairy, especially with the lack of targets for TeSlaa, but he gets enough red zone looks where I'm willing to roll the dice at this price.

Bo Nix +425

Bet on Nix to score a touchdown at DraftKings:

Let's roll the dice on another longshot touchdown scorer and back Bo Nix, who has shown plenty of prowess as a runner this year. 

Nix and Payton, as referenced above, want to put the Chiefs in the ground here and really kick them while they're down, and I think Nix will have some designed run looks near the red zone if the Chiefs are able to force them into third-down situations. 

The Harvey number (-115) is also really good considering his usage and the spread, but I wanted to take his props instead.