NFL contract incentives to know for Week 16 betting

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Don't know about you, but I sure enjoyed the NBA Cup semifinals and final -- won by the Knicks on Tuesday -- because it was some seriously high-level basketball that we don't normally see in early December in the Association. Why was that? Because cash money was at stake to all the players involved. New York's players and head coach Mike Brown each earned $530,933, for example. The runner-up San Antonio Spurs and coach Mitch Johnson each earned $212,373.

What does that have to do with NFL Week 16? There are a lot of guys on the precipice of cashing big on some season-long statistical incentives. I promise you that the players themselves are aware of this and so are their teammates and coaches. It's not their money, so they want guys to get paid.

One of the most memorable recent examples of a player going out of his way to get his teammate some cash was the final game of the 2021 regular season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were routing the visiting Carolina Panthers. There was no reason for Tom Brady to still be in the game with about seven minutes left and his team up 31-17 -- and with a playoff game the following week -- but he refused to leave until he helped good buddy, tight end and fellow future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski earn two incentives worth a combined $1 million.

Gronk reminded Brady on the sideline before the Tampa Bay offense got the ball back: "Let's go, I need one more," Gronkowski told Brady. "One more catch?" Brady replied. With 6:29 left, Brady found Gronkowski for his seventh catch of the day and 55th of the season to trigger a $500K bonus. And actually Gronk earned another $500K for reaching 750 yards on the year. Two plays after that Brady-to-Gronk pass, Blaine Gabbert replaced Brady.

So that's what I'm talking about, and here are a few players I believe can cash in Week 16, along with the full list courtesy of the CBS Sports research team.

Rico Dowdle: $1M for scrimmage yards, $250K for TDs

I have already played Carolina tailback Rico Dowdle priced +110 for an anytime touchdown for Sunday's huge home game vs. Tampa Bay with solo first place on the line in the NFC South. The Buccaneers are -3 and via the SportsLine Projection Model would shoot up with a victory from 75.2% to capture the South to 90.8%. Carolina would rise from 24.8% to 48.1% with the minor upset. The teams play again Week 18 in Tampa.

Dowdle is making "only" $2.75 million this season on a one-year deal, so he could potentially make half his salary in bonuses on Sunday in Charlotte. Dowdle has seven total touchdowns (six rushing, one receiving) and an eighth gets him the $250,000. Tampa Bay is pretty good against the run -- allowing 101.4 yards per game -- but has allowed among the most rushing TDs in the league with 16. Dowdle is averaging just 47.5 rush yards per over the past four after 117.5 YPG in the prior six.

The 27-year-old Dowdle gets a $1 million bonus for reaching 1,350 scrimmage yards and is currently at 1,237. The model forecasts him for a combined 88 scrimmage yards (62 rushing) and 0.63 TDs between rushing and receiving. Dowdle isn't a huge factor in the pass game, as his lone receiving score came Week 6 vs. Dallas.

Keenan Allen: $250K each for TDs, catches, yards

Could these be the final few regular-season games for the future Hall of Fame receiver Keenan Allen? The 33-year-old doesn't have a contract after this season with the Los Angeles Chargers, but he's still playing at a high level with 60 catches for 680 yards and four touchdowns. He's making $3.2 million this year but has up to $2.25 million in incentives. And he might hit a few Sunday in Dallas.

Allen gets $250K for the following benchmarks: six total touchdowns, 71 receptions, 750 receiving yards and then again at 875 yards. He also gets $750K for 80 receptions and another $750K if he reaches 1,000 yards. That one is obviously unlikely as Allen has just a single 1,000-yard season in the past three season, but he also never came close to playing in every game those years. Allen hasn't missed one in 2025.

The Cowboys are last in the NFL against the pass in allowing 254.8 YPG and tied for last with Cincinnati having allowed 31 TD passes. Allen will want to get as many incentives Sunday as possible because the Chargers have two terrific defenses up next in Houston and Denver. Both are top 11 against the pass. The model has Allen at 3.7 catches for 45 yards and 0.28 TDs for Sunday.

He has gone seven straight games without finding the end zone but did lead the Chargers in targets in Week 15. Allen obviously needs 70 yards to reach 750 for that incentive but hasn't reached at least 70 since a season-high 119 yards Week 7 vs. Indianapolis. That's the only game Allen topped 68 yards this year.

I do believe Allen can get 70 on Sunday against that bad defense. No price on that yet at DraftKings due to the uncertain status of fellow wideout Quentin Johnston. He missed last Sunday's upset win in Kansas City and is questionable for this game. Allen is +1300 for two TDs to hit that benchmark.