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The 2025 NFL postseason is off and running, and we were treated to one of the best wild-card weekends ever. We saw 12 fourth-quarter lead changes, which are the most in a single postseason all time, plus four game-winning drives in the final three minutes of regulation. Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears somehow pulled off another incredible comeback victory, while the Buffalo Bills upset what was one of the league's hottest teams in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Maybe this is the year for Josh Allen.

This week in the divisional round, the San Francisco 49ers look to avenge their Week 18 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Bo Nix faces off against Allen in the playoffs for the second time in as many years, Matthew Stafford will battle an old rival in Chicago, and the New England Patriots have their sights set on their first AFC Championship appearance since the 2018 season. 

Which teams should you pick in the divisional round, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Jan. 14 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Dajani (Broncos -1.5): Josh Allen and the Bills survived the Jaguars in Jacksonville, and their reward for doing so is a well-rested, voracious defense in Denver. Injuries have been a storyline for the Bills this week. Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis tore their ACLs last weekend, while Allen is dealing with foot, knee and finger issues. The Broncos set a franchise record with 68 sacks this season, and ranked in the top three in points per game (18.3), yards per game (278.2) and third down percentage (33.8%). The 'X factor' in this matchup is Bo Nix and the Broncos offense. They have been inconsistent for much of the season, but Nix's seven game-winning drives set a franchise record while the Broncos recorded 12 comeback wins in all. Josh Allen is a unicorn, yes, but I believe this line has already moved three full points for good reason. Give me the home team …  Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 21

Dubin (Bills +1.5): Have I been picking against the Broncos pretty much all year? Yes. Has that been a wildly unsuccessful strategy? Also yes. Was one of the exceptions to that rule when I actually picked them against the Jaguars late in the season? Again, yes. Did I actually predict that it would be unsuccessful in that picks column itself? Well, yes. In other words, I have been getting the Broncos wrong all season, including when I picked them to win a big game. I'm going against them here because of my No. 1 playoff rule: Generally speaking, I want to take the team with the better quarterback to win the game. Here, that's very clearly the Bills. I'm just not going to bet against Josh Allen when he's playing Bo Nix -- even if the Broncos do have some matchup advantages here. … Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 17

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (49ers +7): The 49ers now have the longest Super Bowl odds among our 'Elite Eight,' which is a bit surprising considering they have defied the odds all season, and are continuing to do so in the postseason. San Francisco defeated the reigning Super Bowl champions last week, even after George Kittle went down with his Achilles injury. Kittle, of course, wasn't the only player San Francisco was missing. That laundry list includes Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mykel Williams, Tatum Bethune, Ricky Pearsall and Dee Winters. Still, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings found a way to come up clutch. This number seems large, especially when you consider the fact that the 49ers have won four straight meetings in Seattle. I'll take the Seahawks to win this game, but I'm not so sure it's a blowout … Prediction: Seahawks 26, 49ers 23

Dubin (49ers +7): I know I just said that I generally want to take the team with the better quarterback to win the game, but there are some exceptions to that rule and I am taking the Seahawks to win here despite the fact that I think Brock Purdy is a better quarterback and playing at a higher level right now than is Sam Darnold. The 49ers are just too injured on both sides of the ball for me to predict that they'll win this game. Can they keep it relatively close, though? I think they can do that. It's tough to blow out an opponent in a divisional rematch in the playoffs. Kyle Shanahan's offense got shut down in the regular season finale against the Seahawks, but I expect him to have some more answers here than he did there. Just not quite enough of them to actually take out the favorites in their own building. … Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (Patriots -3): Another game in which you should take the Under. I would like this number a lot more at NE -2, but I'll take NE -3. The Texans' defense has been a major storyline all year, but this Patriots defense had Justin Herbert seeing ghosts on every drop back. The Chargers converted just one third down last week, to go along with 207 total yards and three points. I have faith that Mike Vrabel can put enough pressure on C.J. Stroud, who was terrible on Monday night. His five fumbles tied an NFL postseason record, and he threw an interception as well. Additionally, star wideout Nico Collins suffered what appeared to be a nasty concussion. Will he be back in the lineup? We all knew at some point this Texans offense was going to let down this Super Bowl-caliber defense. That should be this week …  Prediction: Patriots 20, Texans 16

Dubin (Patriots -3): I just flat out do not believe in the Texans' offense. Just not enough to pick them in an upset on the road. Like, not at all. And they may not even have their best offensive player for this game, if Nico Collins doesn't clear the concussion protocol in time. We already saw the Patriots' defense look quite good against a team with a limited offensive line in the opening round of the playoffs, and the Texans are similarly-constructed to the Chargers but without as many weapons. Drake Maye is likely going to have tough sledding against the Houston defense, but I don't believe the Texans have it in them to outscore New England.  … Prediction: Patriots 17, Texans 13

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (Bears +3.5): The Rams were my preseason NFC champions pick, but I'm always going to be intrigued by the hook with the home underdog. Especially when you consider that this may be the coldest start of Matthew Stafford's incredible career. The Rams are 3-2 vs. the Bears in the Sean McVay era, but the home team has won all five matchups. Betting on the Bears defense -- especially vs. an offensive attack that includes Puka Nacua and Davante Adams -- is sketchy. They rank fourth-worst in total defense, allowing 361.7 yards per game, but of course led the league in takeaways in the regular season. Chicago didn't force a turnover vs. the Green Bay Packers last week, but Caleb Williams was still able to pull off the comeback. Keep an eye on rookie tight end Colston Loveland, who caught 8 of 15 targets for 137 yards in the wild-card round. Rams win this game, but could get caught on the hook  …  Prediction: Rams 23, Bears 21

Dubin (Rams -3.5): I picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl, so I'm obviously going to be picking them here. The Bears have been pulling rabbits out of their collective hats all season long, but I think that comes to an end against a team that looked like it was the best in the league for most of the year before stumbling a bit down the stretch. Chicago can't play as poorly as it often does for stretches of the game and expect to come away with a win against L.A. -- the Rams are too good on both sides of the ball for that, and we've seen that even if they do blow a lead, they have a trump card with Matthew Stafford and Co. In the end, I am again going to roll with the better quarterback's team to win. Especially in what should be a higher-scoring game. … Prediction: Rams 30, Bears 24