NFL Week 16 betting guide: Riding the Carolina Coaster, plus anytime touchdown scorer picks and player props

The NFL is such an unstoppable machine, isn't it? Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs run the league for darn nearly a decade, and then the second they're finally ousted from the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and Mahomes is done for the year with a torn ACL, by Thursday the league has moved on. 

It's the nature of football and it shouldn't surprise anyone. There's not time for mourning in the NFL or worrying what's happening with anyone else. You've just got to line up and beat the team across the field and try to win and/or not get fired. 

We've got a "smedium" slate this week in terms of quality of games, but such is life in Week 16 with injuries causing havoc and the hierarchy of good and bad teams largely established.

But it's also a slate with a ton of high-leverage games, so let's dive in and win some bets. 

Week 16 best bets

Panthers +3 vs. Buccaneers

Yup, we're backing the Carolina Coaster once again in Week 16 -- but this time we're doing the sensible thing and taking them as home dogs and buying the downswing after another complete egg against the Saints last week.

Let's not forget the Bucs are in the middle of a complete collapse right now, and even though they are off a mini-bye this week affording them extra rest, I think Carolina's roughly about equal a team given the Bucs' injuries. 

More importantly, the Panthers are absolutely willing (even if by accident) to get involved in a shootout when a team engages them in a back-and-forth affair. The Saints didn't want to do that and it resulted in Carolina letting them play a game that benefited New Orleans. 

Here, the Panthers and Bucs should be swapping scores pretty frequently -- the total's sitting at 45.5 -- and I want the points at home in a divisional matchup for a lot of marbles whenever that's the case. 

Titans +3 vs. Chiefs

This is not a bet for the faint of heart, as the Titans are a truly terrible football team. And it wouldn't be all that shocking if the Chiefs decided to remind everyone Andy Reid can still coach and Gardner Minshew proceeds to go off. But it's also possible getting eliminated from the postseason this early and the blow of Mahomes' injury just sucks the life out of this team for the rest of the year.

I wouldn't be entirely shocked if key players were given extra rest for Kansas City -- or at least the Chiefs sit anyone who is remotely banged up in order to ensure everyone is healthy in 2026. 

The Titans are still in try-hard mode and while they're a worse team than the Chiefs and I don't think they should be favored or anything, I do think the Titans will give the Chiefs a run here and love them getting points at home versus a gutted Chiefs team.    

Giants +3 vs. Vikings

We're just backing a bunch of home dogs this week, and why not? It's Week 16 -- there's gonna be some chaos in the pecking order on both sides of the playoff bracket, and the Giants, while not a great football team, are at least a little frisky. But they didn't show it last week against Washington, which is disappointing and probably a large part of the reason they're catching three at home against Minnesota. 

But this is a prime buy-low/sell-high spot on these two teams. The Vikings are riding high after beating the Cowboys in Dallas on prime time with J.J. McCarthy looking pretty good and the defense preventing Dak Prescott from throwing a touchdown. 

The Giants couldn't do anything against a hapless Washington team. I guess the Vikings -3 is just too easy! I think the Giants get pressure on McCarthy and force a turnover or two en route to a late-season home win for Jaxson Dart and Co. 

Week 16 NFL player props 

Quinshon Judkins Over 61.5 rush yards

The Browns are massive underdogs in this game, so there's definitely a little risk of a blowout and them abandoning the run completely. But the matchup is a good one with the Bills just recently getting gashed by rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson on several long runs.

I'm banking on Cleveland's defense keeping the Browns in this game long enough to try and establish the run and Judkins popping off one long-ish run on his early-game carries to get this number. 

Cleveland at home in December should be a strong defensive spot and there's expected to be a decent amount of wind with temps in the high 20s. I'm not sure Josh Allen and the Bills come out and just blow Cleveland's doors off early, so Judkins should get plenty of carries here.

Kenneth Gainwell Over 4.5 receptions

If it ain't broke, don't fix it, and the Steelers should be absolutely going right back to Gainwell after an awesome performance from him in the passing game on Monday night.

Aaron Rodgers clearly really likes throwing to him in the passing game, and Arthur Smith has been calling Gainwell's number a lot lately: he has six-plus targets in four of his last five games and seven-plus in three of five. Pittsburgh's won three of those games, were close in another and the offense clearly operates better with the quick hitters to Gainwell. 

The Steelers are big dogs to Detroit this week, so Gainwell could also find himself in a really positive game script for receptions.  

TreVeyon Henderson longest rush Over13.5

I mean ... this is a short number for a guy who LOVES to rip off long runs, usually to the end zone. The Patriots put him in great spots to rip off the runs, and even Chase Brown got to 10 yards on his longest rush last week despite the Bengals doing literally nothing on offense in terms of points scored. 

I'll always back Henderson to rip long runs, especially in a big spot. He's been electric for the Pats all year long and I don't expect it to stop on Sunday night.  

Week 16 anytime touchdown scorer props

Colston Loveland +175

This is kind of a perfect storm for the Bears rookie tight end on Saturday night. Chicago is down both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III for this home game against Green Bay and the Packers just lost Micah Parsons for the season.

Loveland's been coming on strong in the second half of the year, surpassing Tyler Warren as the top rookie tight end and justifying the Bears drafting him as high as they did. 

And in a huge spot against a division rival, I think he comes to play and finds the end zone.    

Chase Brown -140

Somewhat juicy spot here, but that's fine -- the Bengals are poised for a bounceback against a Dolphins defense that just got shredded by the Steelers. Miami should be better at home than in the cold, but with Quinn Ewers starting for the Dolphins, Cincy could put up points and then pull away here.

Enter Brown, who can catch tons of balls out of the backfield, to help ice this thing away for the Bengals if they're up big. Brown's had a really disappointing season relative to expectations, but it wouldn't be a shock to see him post a blow-up game in this spot. 

I'd sprinkle on two touchdowns if you're backing the single. 

Nico Collins +105

The biggest risk in betting on Collins to score here, in my opinion, is the Raiders team total. Kenny Pickett and Co. are slotted at 10.5 with the Under juiced, which is just the wildest number I've ever seen -- and I probably like the Under with this Texans defense at home. 

But Houston's not just going to run the ball 60 times and Collins is easily the biggest target. I think the Texans will chunk it down the field to him early in this game, hit on a big play for a score and settle in to pound the ball.