What a wild week in the NFL. I did not expect Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns to be leading the AFC North after four weeks, or the Houston Texans to be 0-4. How about the Minnesota Vikings? They lead the NFC North with a perfect 4-0 record despite having what is statistically the second-worst offense in the NFL!
Our picks didn't do so hot last week. We went 2-3 on best bets, as the Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions let us down. I knew the Lions' defense was bad, but they made Bryce Young look better than Tom Brady. What an embarrassment. I'm going to start calling them the Etroit Lions, because they have no "D."
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 10-10
Overall ATS record: 28-35-1
Straight-up record: 35-29
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Jacksonville Jaguars look like one of the best teams in the AFC, while the Philadelphia Eagles are potentially spiraling. It was remarkable how they allowed 14 unanswered points to the Los Angeles Rams in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter last week, and didn't convert a single third down. Seriously, Philly went 0-12 on third downs. Then, this week has been tough for the franchise.
Saquon Barkley has an injured hamstring, his backup in Tank Bigsby was just placed on injured reserve, and the Eagles lost two starters on the offensive line. Right tackle Lane Johnson announced his retirement on Tuesday to focus on his mental health, and Cam Jurgens was traded to the Baltimore Ravens on Wednesday. I know Jurgens wasn't exactly impressive at left guard, but that's still two starters down on Jalen Hurts' offensive line as the team prepares to cross the pond. By the way, the Eagles are leaving a bit late for this trip, traveling on Friday.
As for the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball with confidence, while the defense ranks second in takeaways and rushing, allowing just 74.3 rushing yards per game. This is a large spread, but Hurts hasn't looked very good at all in this Sean Mannion offense.
The pick: Jaguars -7.5
Projected score: Jaguars 27-18
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I'm pretty sure I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are very much Jekyll and Hyde. They drop 30 points on the Cincinnati Bengals and then get run over by Deshaun Watson and the Browns. What the Steelers have working for them this week are two things: They are at home, where they are 2-0, and they have a rest advantage.
The Indianapolis Colts just got back from London, while the Steelers had an extended break following their Thursday night loss to Cleveland. Even in their win over the Washington Commanders, I didn't think this Colts defense looked very good. We had Athan Kaliakmanis coming off the bench and throwing for 186 yards, one touchdown and an interception in his first NFL action, as the Commanders' offense put up 317 yards of total offense.
The Colts rank second-worst in the NFL in total defense and eighth-worst in total offense. Laquon Treadwell of all people was their leading receiver last Sunday! Additionally, the Steelers have owned the Colts in Pittsburgh, and are 17-2 all-time when Indy comes to visit. The Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss, so I'll back them in this spot.
The pick: Steelers -2.5
Projected score: Steelers 24-17
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Fading the Miami Dolphins was lucrative until last week. They covered against the second-worst offense in the NFL -- who didn't score at the end of the fourth quarter in the name of sportsmanship. Yuck!
It's not fun to pile on Miami. We knew this was going to be a rebuilding year. The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that has not held a lead this season, and they are averaging just 11.5 points per game. This is an opportunity for the Bengals to get off a two-game skid. It's true that Ja'Marr Chase is in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with groin and neck injuries, but Dohnte Meyers and Mitchell Tinsley really stepped up for Joe Burrow's dynamic duo on Sunday. Meyers caught seven passes for 82 yards! Also, it does appear Chase is making some progress, as he was a limited participant in practice on Thursday.
Betting the Bengals on the road is usually lucrative, as Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in road games started by Burrow since 2024.
The pick: Bengals -6.5
Projected score: Bengals 24-16
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The Browns are rested following their massive win over the Steelers last week in prime time, while the New York Jets just lost to Tyson Bagent. I didn't think Bagent looked especially great in his first "start" of the season, but he relied on his powerful rushing attack, which generated 232 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets' offense was atrocious, recording just 157 total yards while going 0-7 on third downs. That forced New York's defense to be on the field for 89 plays. EIGHTY-NINE PLAYS. Chicago racked up 34 first downs compared to New York's seven. It was bad.
As for the Browns, Deshaun Watson is playing the best ball of his Cleveland career. He's led game-winning drives in three straight games, and is finding success with his young playmakers. The Browns are actually the first team to have four players under 23-years-old that have racked up 150 scrimmage yards through four games in Denzel Boston (283 yards), Quinshon Judkins (273), Harold Fannin Jr (153) and KC Concepcion (153).
It's wild to say, but the Browns are the better team right now.
The pick: Browns +2.5
Projected score: Browns 17-13
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Jayden Daniels is back for Washington, which is maybe a controversial decision? General manager Adam Peters told fans his star quarterback doesn't need surgery right now after dislocating his left elbow again in Week 2, but ESPN reported that he is probably going to need surgery at some point.
Daniels is wearing a brace to protect himself, but he literally re-injured that elbow while wearing a brace when he tried to return to the field last year in his very first game back against the Vikings. If he re-injures it again, you have to wonder if he could further mess up that elbow.
The weather in this NFC East matchup may be wet and windy, meaning the ground game will be important. Commanders running backs Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White and Jeremy McNichols are nursing injuries, while wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. I'm leaning towards the underdog here -- who have reeled off two straight victories now.
The pick: Giants +3.5
Projected score: Commanders 20-17
Other Week 5 picks
Cowboys (-9.5) 30-20 over Buccaneers
Texans 21-16 over Titans (+7.5)
Packers (+2.5) 21-20 over Bears
Patriots (-3.5) 24-21 over Raiders
Vikings (-2.5) 20-14 over Saints
Broncos (-3.5) 27-20 over Chargers
Lions 30-28 over Cardinals (+5.5)
49ers (+2.5) 24-23 over Seahawks
Falcons (-3) 27-21 over Ravens
Bills (+3) 30-27 over Rams
