The first month of the regular season gave us a last-minute elbow to the ribs right before we closed the book on it. 

The Week 4 slate was a tough one, particularly when it came to betting against the spread. I managed just a 5-10-1 ATS record for the weekend. Gross. That said, we managed it pretty well everywhere else. I went 10-6 straight up and 2-2-1 ATS with my five locks of the week. Within those locks, we were part of the unlucky bunch who were spurned by one of the worst beats of the young season. 

If you missed it, we had the Vikings covering an 11.5-point spread against the Dolphins. With two minutes to play in regulation and Minnesota at the Miami 11-yard line with a 15-10 lead, Kyler Murray hit tight end T.J. Hockenson for what should've been a wide-open touchdown. That would've cleared the spread, and everyone with a Vikings ticket would go home happy. Instead of scoring, however, Hockenson slid down at the one, knowing that he had enough for the first down and Minnesota could simply kill the clock and lock in the victory. 

Pain. 

Well, we'll shake that rough ATS loss off and now turn our attention to Week 5, which, as always, begins with my five locks of the week. 

Note: Kansas City and Carolina are on the bye in Week 5.

2026 record

  • Locks of the Week ATS: 10-9-1
  • ATS: 27-35-2
  • ML: 42-22

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

I think someone on the Colts may have upset the schedule makers or something, because they are getting a raw deal in this Week 5 matchup against Pittsburgh. Last week, Indianapolis played in London and will now have to go on the road the following week for an international game and face a Steelers team that is on extended rest after playing last Thursday night. That's as significant a rest advantage as you may find outside of bye weeks, and I think Pittsburgh takes advantage. 

Don't be fooled by the 30-13 win in London last week; the Colts -- outside of Jonathan Taylor -- looked terrible. Daniel Jones has yet to recapture the spark he had in the first half of last season before tearing his Achilles. So far this season, Jones is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, has four total touchdowns and seven total turnovers. He's also completed just one pass (on nine attempts) of 20-plus air yards. 

The Steelers, meanwhile, have been far better at home this season than on the road, owning a 2-0 record and averaging 25 points per game. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense have shown sparks through the first month, and I'd expect to see more of that on Sunday against an Indy defense that is allowing the second-most yards per game in the NFL this season. The Steelers are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 

Projected score: Steelers 27, Colts 20
The pick: Steelers -2.5

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Sure, they couldn't fend off the Chiefs last week and stay undefeated, but I think the Raiders still validated their strong start to the year in that game. They are still a developing team, but they hung right with Kansas City, who looks like one of the elite teams in the conference. The offense has played extremely well and is averaging 28.8 points per game, while Kirk Cousins -- who is 7-1 SU and ATS over his last eight starts --  is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11). 

I think they have enough firepower to hang around with New England on the road to stay within the number, especially with the spread sitting at a field goal and a hook. That said, I think the Patriots carry the momentum of a massive win in Buffalo last Sunday into Week 5. 

Drake Maye looked much more confident in the pocket last week, specifically when it came to dealing with pressure. Against the blitz, Maye was 9-of-14 for 118 passing yards and three touchdowns, which was good for a 130.4 passer rating. That's close to the MVP runner-up we saw last year. He also used his legs more effectively. Maye could pop again against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed more points, yards, and rushing yards in each game this season. 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Raiders 21
The pick: Raiders +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)

  • Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The vibes around the Eagles are either at or near an all-time low. They just blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Rams in Week 4, are remarkably banged up, and just saw Lane Johnson announce his retirement. It's unclear if Saquon Barkley (hamstring) or DeVonta Smith (hamstring) will play this week as Philly heads to London to face Jacksonville this weekend. If neither is able to go, that'd be an offense reeling after failing to convert a single one of its 12 third-down opportunities last week. Going back to Week 3, Philly enters this game on a 0-17 streak on third down. 

Meanwhile, they square off against a Jaguars team that I believe is the best in the AFC at the moment. They're 3-1 and have an offense that is essentially the polar opposite of Philly's. The Jags have the third-best third-down conversion rate (51.1 %) in the NFL entering Week 5, the second-best red zone touchdown rate (81.8%), and Trevor Lawrence is sneakily playing like an MVP candidate. Of the 24 quarterbacks who've thrown at least 100 passes this season, Lawrence is second in passer rating at 111.2. 

The Jags are too hot to fade at the moment, and face an Eagles team that feels like they are about to roll over. 

Projected score: Jaguars 30, Eagles 17
The pick: Jaguars -6.5

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

I told you this after Week 3, and it's only become more true as the season has gone on -- the Chargers are a dumpster fire. They're 0-4 on the season and have largely looked lifeless in the process. And don't let the 30-23 final score against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks fool you; Los Angeles piled up most of those points when the game was out of reach (trailed 27-6). Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) this season and is currently last in the NFL with a 70.6 passer rating (min. 100 pass attempts). 

The Broncos haven't been much better than the Chargers, if we're being honest, as their 2-2 start to the season has been disappointing when you look under the hood. Specifically, they are starting out games extremely flat on offense, totaling just 13 points in the first half, which is last in the NFL. They've been able to rebound with frantic second halves, scoring the fifth-most second-half points in the league (61). That at least shows there is a spark that can be tapped when backed into a corner. 

However, this game will be won in the trenches. Specifically, the Broncos should take advantage of a banged-up Chargers offensive line. Even when they have been healthy, L.A. is giving up the second-highest pressure rate per dropback in the NFL (46.9%). They now have to try to improve on that figure without left tackle Rashawn Slate, who is expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. Meanwhile, Joe Alt also has his status up in the air due to a neck injury he suffered last week. While they aren't as prolific as they were last season, Denver's pass rush ranks 11th in the NFL in pressure rate (39.7%), so this could be another long day at the office for Herbert. 

Projected score: Broncos 26, Chargers 20
The pick: Broncos -3.5

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

As I noted last week in my Cover 32 column, the Packers just don't have it, and I don't see them as a true playoff threat in the NFC, let alone as a division winner. They're 28th in the NFL in points per game (18.8) and are last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.0) as well as on third down (26%). Green Bay is also the second-most penalized team in the league through the first month, so they're not even getting out of their own way. 

Meanwhile, Chicago has persevered amid Caleb Williams' injury, and both Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent (who'll start on Sunday) have performed at a high level in his stead. The Bears have leaned on their running game with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, and the team leads the NFL with 196.3 rushing yards per game. That strength could once again be an X-factor as Green Bay is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (7) allowed this season. 

Chicago doesn't have the best splits when it comes to playing division rivals under Ben Johnson (2-5 SU and ATS), but I think they improve on that mark here as they step into Lambeau Field as road favorites and pull out the victory. 

Projected score: Bears 28, Packers 20
The pick: Bears -2.5

Rest of the bunch

Buccaneers at Cowboys (Thursday)
Projected score: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Cowboys -8.5

Bengals at Dolphins
Projected score: Bengals 27, Dolphins 16
The pick: Bengals -7.5

Browns at Jets
Projected score: Jets 24, Browns 20
The pick: Jets -2.5

Texans at Titans
Projected score: Texans 27, Titans 17
The pick: Texans -7

Vikings at Saints
Projected score: Vikings 23, Saints 20
The pick: Vikings -1.5

Giants at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 26, Giants 23
The pick: Giants +3.5

Lions at Cardinals
Projected score: Lions 33, Cardinals 30
The pick: Cardinals +4.5

49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, 49ers 23
The pick: Seahawks -3

Ravens at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Falcons -2.5

Bills at Rams (Monday)
Projected score: Rams 28, Bills 24
The pick: Rams -2.5

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