The first month of the NFL season can play tricks on us. Last year through four games, Baker Mayfield was looking like an MVP candidate, and the Buccaneers were 3-1. The Colts were also 3-1, and Daniel Jones was not only putting up even better numbers than Mayfield, but putting up some of the best numbers in the league — one of the most out-of-nowhere quarterback surprises in recent memory.
On the other side, the Panthers were 1-3 and coming off a 26-10 shellacking courtesy of the Jaguars. The Texans were also 1-3. Both of those teams made the postseason.
Of course, there are plenty of early signs that turn out to be true, too. The Bills and Eagles were the only undefeated teams through four weeks last year, and both were playoff teams. The Saints, Titans and Jets — all 0-4 at this point last year — ended up continuing their poor play and landing top-10 picks.
What we can say for sure is that it's early. The standings of today will look very different one month from now, let alone three months from now when the regular season wraps up. Still, with four games down, we've seen enough to hand out first-quarter grades to every team, taking into account not just their record, but how they've looked getting there and how that projects moving forward.
After hitting the AFC yesterday, we move to the NFC.
NFC East
Giants (3-1): C+
If Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns were healthy and the Giants were 3-1, this would be an "A" or "A-" easily. Instead, both suffered season-ending knee injuries. Dart is the one that really, really hurts. Based on the tiny sample size we saw, he looked excellent. Yes, the Giants lead the NFC East, but their last two wins were 12-7 over the Titans and a win over the Cardinals that came down to a goal-line stand in the final seconds. Any team wondering whether to start Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy can't really get a grade much higher than this, especially given the short- and long-term implications of Dart's injury.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2): C-
The defense deserves a "B-" or a "C+." The offense deserves a "D" ... or maybe worse. Hence, the "C-" mark. The Eagles are 29th in offensive success rate and 31st in EPA per play, only ahead of the Buccaneers. Yikes. Jalen Hurts looks completely lost, and Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are both dealing with injuries. The offensive line, due to injuries and significant skill decline, is a shell of its former self. The defense has been much better, but still disappointing given its lofty expectations. The Eagles' wins are narrow ones over the Commanders and Titans. They got blown out by the Case Keenum-led Bears and blew a 10-point lead with under five minutes left against the Rams, who made so many mistakes they were practically begging the Eagles to win the game. Nick Sirianni, Sean Mannion, Hurts and many others are drawing the ire of Philadelphia faithful.
Dallas Cowboys (2-2): B-
The Cowboys currently have the fifth-highest-scoring offense on a per-drive basis of the 21st century. Dak Prescott has been outstanding, and CeeDee Lamb and/or George Pickens can dominate any defense, as seen against the Texans in Week 4. Plus, the Cowboys are about to get their best offensive lineman, Tyler Smith, back. For as good as the offense is, though, the defense is just as bad. Dallas' defense is 20th in EPA per play, 31st in success rate and 31st in explosive play rate. They're allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards per play. The Joey Porter Jr. addition should help, but he's just one of the 11 players on the field.
Washington Commanders (1-3): D
In Week 1, the Commanders' defense looked good, but the offense looked bad. In Week 2, the offense started to come around, but then Jayden Daniels got hurt again, and Washington got blown out. Week 3 remains one of the most surprising results in the NFL this season, a 33-31 win over the Seahawks. But any chance at building hope and momentum dissipated in Week 4, where Marcus Mariota got hurt, forcing the Commanders to turn to seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis. Other than first-round rookie Sonny Styles looking very good, it's hard to find good news for a team that very much looks like last year's 5-12 outfit. Washington is 30th in offensive success rate and 23rd in defensive success rate.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (4-0): B
How does a 4-0 team receive a "B" mark? Well, how about this: Over the last three weeks, the Vikings have scored one offensive touchdown. Every other team in the NFL has at least three. The Vikings beat the Bears 9-3 in a downpour in Week 2, a game Caleb Williams left early. They beat the winless Buccaneers 23-16 in Week 3, a game Baker Mayfield left early. They nudged past the winless Dolphins 15-10 in Week 4. That does not inspire much confidence. The defense is the best in the league in both EPA per play and success rate. Brian Flores is simply superb. That's an "A+" unit. The offense is a "D" at best, ranking dead last in yards per play. Kyler Murray and co. have to figure something out. The 4-0 record bumps the grade up a hair, but this style of winning doesn't seem sustainable.
Chicago Bears (3-1): B
The Bears have won three games using three different quarterbacks, a remarkable feat in and of itself. The offense looked magnificent in Week 1 with Williams at the helm, and then it looked bad in a rainstorm in Week 2, even before Williams left early. The Bears' domination of the Eagles despite playing third-string quarterback Case Keenum is one of the more impressive performances of the season. There are still major questions about the defense, but it has at least somewhat started heading in the right direction, albeit against weak competition. Williams' hamstring injury knocks this grade down a bit, mostly because of the long-term implications. Yes, he's expected back sooner rather than later, but how healthy will he truly be? His mobility, escapability and scrambling are crucial parts of his game and the Bears' offense as a whole.
Detroit Lions (2-2): C-
The Lions' defense ranks dead last in EPA per play and explosive play rate. It's hard to be much worse than that, right? Everyone is frustrated, Dan Campbell is fielding questions about defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, and the talent in the secondary simply isn't up to par. The eventual return of Brian Branch will help, but he can't fix everything — and he shouldn't be expected to — especially coming off an Achilles tear. The offense is generally very good: second in EPA per play and third in success rate and points per drive. But there's so much pressure for Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and co. to score a touchdown every time they touch the ball. Week 4's loss to the Panthers was a prime example: Detroit scored on six of its 10 drives and lost.
Green Bay Packers (2-2): D+
The Packers' two wins this year are a three-point overtime win against the Jets (in a game they very easily could have and perhaps should have lost) and a three-point win over the Buccaneers, quarterbacked by undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Neither do huge losses to the Vikings (a Carson Wentz-led comeback) and the Falcons. There are gigantic issues running the ball (31st in success rate) and stopping the run (28th in success rate). The Packers are scrambling at the offensive line. Jordan Love already has three interceptions; he threw six all of last year. The defense just lost Edgerrin Cooper to a torn Achilles. Micah Parsons' looming return will help, but there are just so many issues here.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (2-2): B
Here's a sentence you probably didn't expect to read four weeks into the season: Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards. It's not just the counting stats, either. He's sixth in EPA per dropback and seventh in yards per attempt. He has taken a gigantic leap forward in every aspect, though it hasn't been against the world's best competition. Regardless, Carolina should be thrilled. The defense has been less thrilling. If we take out a Week 2 game against the Cooper Rush-led Falcons, Carolina has a -0.15 defensive EPA per play, which would rank 29th. Without starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, it could get worse before it gets better, too.
Atlanta Falcons (2-2): B+
Atlanta leads the NFL in scoring (80 points) in the past two weeks after ranking last (16 points) in the first two weeks. Thank goodness Michael Penix Jr. is back. The last two games — dominations of the Packers and the Saints in primetime — have been "A+" worthy. Bijan Robinson looks like the best running back we've seen in a long, long time, and Penix looked more comfortable in his second start than his first. For as much love as the offense deserves, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich deserves just as much, working with a unit dealing with injuries across the board. The Falcons are second in defensive success rate and first in both yards per rush allowed and pressure rate. Unfortunately, we do have to factor in the two games started by Cooper Rush, but this team's arrow is very much pointing up as long as Penix can stay healthy.
New Orleans Saints (1-3): C-
This was on track to be a much better grade through two weeks, considering the Saints' stirring comeback finished one point short against Detroit, and then they beat the Ravens in Baltimore. Since then? Back-to-back losses to the Raiders and the Falcons — in which they gave up 80 combined points — provide a harsh reality. This is a really poor defense. The Saints are 31st in defensive expected points added per play and 32nd in defensive success rate. They struggle to get pressure on the quarterback and got absolutely shredded on the ground in Week 4. That's a bad combination. The offense has had some fun moments, but it's pretty middle-of-the-pack overall, and the run game has been pretty "meh." It'd be nice if the unit wasn't constantly trying to keep up. In better news, Chris Olave rocks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4): F
The Buccaneers have lost 11 of their last 13 games dating back to last season. Baker Mayfield is hurt (dislocated right thumb) and out at least two more weeks, but even before that, he was playing extremely poorly. Only Drake Maye and Tyler Shough had more turnovers through three weeks. The offensive line, thought of as a clear strength entering the season, has been just OK and grades out as the worst run-blocking unit in the NFL, per PFF. The defense has actually been quite good overall, ranking top five in success rate and EPA per play, but it simply has no margin for error given how bad the offense has been. Todd Bowles' seat is getting hotter every week, and the Mayfield extension is looking worse every week, too.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (4-0): A
The only team to earn an "A" in the NFC, the 49ers are thoroughly deserving. Brock Purdy is playing outstanding football, and not just because Kyle Shanahan's system spits out uber-efficient play no matter who's behind center. Purdy's film is very strong, and he's yet to take a sack. The 49ers are first in EPA per play and success rate and third in explosive play rate. The reasons this isn't an "A+" mark are 1) health and 2) the run defense. San Francisco is 29th in defensive rushing success rate. So while all the other defensive numbers look good, that is a clear weakness. Still, it's a vastly improved defense from last year (isn't it funny what a healthy Fred Warner can do?), and it could get better as it gets healthier. This is the best team in the NFL right now.
Seattle Seahawks (3-1): A-
Seattle owns one of the most befuddling losses of the year to the Commanders, but also looks very much like a Super Bowl contender once again. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unguardable, and the Seahawks ran eighth in passing success rate and 10th in explosive play rate. The defense is first in yards per play, second in EPA per play and explosive play rate, and third in success rate. That's with several injuries in the secondary, too. The biggest issue here is the running game, which is 28th in success rate and 30th in EPA. The Seahawks badly miss Kenneth Walker III, and Jadarian Price is hurt. Zach Charbonnet's return could help, but he's never been an explosive runner and is more effective in the passing game. If Seattle can get back to even mediocre running the ball, that'd be helpful.
Los Angeles Rams (2-2): C-
If we go on a simple game-by-game basis, the Rams' loss to the 49ers in Australia was an "F" from the actual game to the travel plans to the injuries suffered. Myles Garrett won't be back until midseason, and even then, will he perform like the Defensive Player of the Year he was last year? The Giants win was an "A," but it came against Jameis Winston. The collapse against the Broncos was probably a "C-" at best, even if suspect officiating came into play, and the narrow win over an offensively hapless Eagles was at best a "B." This simply doesn't look like a superteam. Matthew Stafford has six interceptions after eight all of last year. His accuracy is down, and the explosives are down, though Puka Nacua will help the latter. The defense is not only without Garrett but also Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson. All things considered, 2-2 isn't the end of the world, but the way it looks isn't inspiring at all.
Arizona Cardinals (1-3): C-
If anything, the Cardinals have been more competitive than many people thought. They beat the Chargers to open the season, and after a blowout loss to the Seahawks, they played both the 49ers and the Giants close. Jeremiyah Love has been as advertised, but his high ankle sprain keeping him at less than 100% is a bummer, and his words after Sunday's loss weren't encouraging. The Paris Johnson Jr. injury also stinks. More encouraging, though, is Michael Wilson and Trey McBride looking very good. The Chargers are 32nd in explosive play rate but seventh in success rate, showing they can stay on schedule. Myriad issues on defense were to be expected, and injuries haven't helped, but Walter Nolen and other players who could be keys going forward have flashed.
