The National Football League is parity driven: you never know what could happen in a given week.
Never before has that been more so the case through the first five weeks of an NFL season than 2024. Underdogs of seven or more points have won seven of their nine games for a 77.8% win percentage, the best record in a five-week span of a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. The 2024 season also possesses the best straight-up win-loss records for underdogs of four-plus points, five-plus points, six-plus points, seven-plus points and eight-plus points through Week 5 since 1970.
Outright records by underdogs in 2024
| W-L | Win Pct | |
|---|---|---|
4+ Points | 13-20 | .394 |
5+ Points | 12-10 | .545 |
6+ Points | 11-7 | .611 |
7+ Points | 7-2 | .778 |
8+ points | 3-1 | .750 |
* All best win percentage through Week 5 since 1970
* Best record by 7+ point underdogs in any five-week span since 1970
What craziness could occur in Week 6? Let's examine five of the more likely, unlikely events.
QB Deshaun Watson, Browns stun Eagles for shocking victory
Quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns stink. Cleveland's 3.8 yards per play on offense is the lowest in the entire NFL in 2024, and the Browns are the only team averaging under 4 yards per play. Watson has registered five consecutive games with 25 or more pass attempts and fewer than 200 yards passing, tied for the longest such streak to start a season in the past 75 years.
Watson is averaging a career-low 170.4 passing yards per game, and his NFL-worst 4.8 yards per pass attempt ranks as the third-fewest yards per pass attempt by a quarterback through five team games since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, minimum 150 pass attempts. He also has as many completions of 10 or more yards (26) as he does sacks taken (26, the most in the NFL) this season.
However, he and the Browns are going to shock the world by upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia as nine-point underdogs on Sunday. Why and how you ask? Well, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in giveaways (27) since 2023, and he is struggling this season. Hurts has been sacked 10 times in his last two games and thrown interceptions in three of his four starts in 2024. Philadelphia's offensive line in Year 1 of the post-Jason Kelce era isn't doing Hurts any favors either: they are allowing a 45.2% quarterback pressure rate, the second-highest in the NFL ahead of only the New England Patriots' 46.2% rate. That's not an ideal place to be in when facing 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett.
Garrett and the defense do just enough by pressuring Hurts into a turnover or two, and Watson helps guide the Browns offense down the field against an Eagles defense that is allowing the sixth-most total yards per game (365.8) in the entire league this season for a stunning road triumph.
Daniel Jones, Giants surprise Bengals for rare prime-time win
The New York Giants (2-3) are not made for the bright lights of "Sunday Night Football" that they will be playing under in Week 6 versus the Cincinnati Bengals. They have lost 10 of their last 11 home prime-time games, and Giants quarterback Daniel Jones' 1-13 career record in prime-time games is the worst by a starting quarterbacks since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
Jones is also the only quarterback to have four consecutive home starts where his team failed to score a touchdown. Yet, Jones and the Giants, who are three-and-a-half-point home underdogs, per SportsLine, will emerge victorious against 2024 NFL passing touchdowns leader Joe Burrow (12) and his Cincinnati Bengals (1-4). How could that be? Let's walk through it.
On the Giants' side of the equation, Jones has continued to show improvement each week: he has thrown for two touchdowns and no interceptions in three of the last four games and increased his yards per pass attempt every week of 2024. New York's defense also boasts the NFL's best pass rush: The Giants lead the NFL in sacks (22.0) and sacks rate (12.3%) and rank 10th (36.8%) in quarterback pressure rate. They're powered by All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, whose six sacks are tied for the second-most in the league this season behind only Pro Bowl Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson's 6.5.
Cincy's defense, on the other hand, is atrocious. The Bengals have the NFL's second-worst scoring defense (29.0 points per game allowed), and they rank bottom five in the NFL in numerous other defensive metrics.
Bengals defense by the numbers
| NFL Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
PPG Allowed | 29.0 | 31st |
Total YPG Allowed | 365.4 | 26th |
Total Rush YPG Allowed | 151.4 | 30th |
3rd Down Conversion Rate Allowed | 47.5% | 31st |
Sacks | 6 | T-29th |
| Passer Rating Allowed | 101.4 | 26th |
Jones and the Giants finally come through in prime time and secure a surprising win.
Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence doesn't commit a turnover vs. Bears' havoc-creating defense
No one has more turnovers since 2021 than Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence's 62, and this season hasn't been efficient for Lawrence either. He's been chucking the football deep downfield with an average pass length of 9.5 yards downfield, the fourth-longest in the NFL, but Lawrence hasn't been connecting: his 59.6% completion percentage in 2024 is the league's fourth-lowest.
That's not a great combination when facing Matt Eberflus' Chicago Bears defense. The unit has allowed 21 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games, tied for the third-longest such streak by any team in the last 15 seasons, they have allowed under 325 total yards in every game this season and their 11 takeaways are tied for the third-most in the NFL this season.
However, Lawrence is going to buck the trends and play turnover-free football, a rarity for him. He showed signs of high-level quarterback play in Jacksonville's 37-34 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, completing 28 of his 34 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns and only one interception. Lawrence takes his play up another notch against one of the NFL's best defenses in Week 6.
Patriots' Drake Maye takes less than three sacks in NFL debut vs. ferocious Texans pass rush
The New England Patriots (1-4) are throwing 2024 third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye to the wolves in Week 6, trotting him out for his first NFL regular-season start in Week 6 against the AFC South division-leading Houston Texans (4-1). Maye will be lucky to walk away from this game without a serious injury.
The Texans pressured 2024 No. 1 overall pick quarterback Caleb Williams on 48% of his dropbacks and racked up seven sacks in Week 2. Houston's 9.3% sack rate this season is the fourth-best in the NFL, thanks in part to its willingness to crank up the heat via the blitz. The Bears' 32.8% blitz rate is the eighth-highest in the league. That doesn't bode well for Maye whose New England offensive line is allowing a quarterback pressure rate of 46.2%, the highest in the entire league. They have also surrendered 19 sacks this season, tied for the second-most in the league and ahead of only the Cleveland Browns' 26. One of the many reasons for the Patriots' pass-blocking ineptitude is they have trotted out an NFL-high five different starting offensive line combinations in five weeks: that's the worst O-line continuity in the entire league.
New England wide receivers also haven't been doing their part in 2024, averaging the fewest catches per game (7.8) and receiving yards per game (68.4) of any wide receiver core in the NFL. However, Maye -- the only college football player with over 7,000 passing yards (7,929) and over 1,000 rushing yards (1,147) from 2022 to 2023 -- will survive Week 6 by getting sacked no more than twice.
Josh Allen maintains longest INT-free streak of career at Jets
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a stat-sheet stuffer in every sense of the phrase. His 231 career touchdowns in his first 100 games are the second-most in NFL history behind only Patrick Mahomes' 237, and he will play his 100th career game on Monday night against the New York Jets. However, Allen's 78 career interceptions are the most in the league since he was selected seventh overall by the Bills in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Surprisingly, he hasn't tossed an interception in Buffalo's 3-2 start this season and has a seven-game streak without an interception, including the playoffs, which is the longest such streak of Allen's career. His Week 6 matchup at MetLife Stadium against two-time All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner and the Jets' top-five defense will challenge Allen's patience and discipline.
Jets defense by the numbers
| NFL Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
PPG Allowed | 17.0 | T-5th |
Total YPG Allowed | 255.8 | 2nd |
3rd Down Pct Allowed | 31.7% | 8th |
Red Zone TD Pct Allowed | 41.7% | 6th |
Sack Pct | 11.4% | 2nd |
Sacks | 18.0 | 4th |
QB Pressure Pct | 39.8% | 6th |
Passer Rating Allowed | 73.1 | 4th |
When Week 6 ends on Monday night, Allen will somehow keep that interception-free streak alive entering Week 7.